Today is the last day of the 30 days writing challenge of this fall. Congratulations to all who joined and finished (or just tried, you're much better off than someone who never even tried something like this)!

For me, the challenge paid off. I started it as a tool to maintain my mental clarity during the move, and it worked. As I write this last article, I realize what a diverse concoction of topics, words and styles that was. But then again, so was my actual life during this amazing last 30 days.

Things are settling down, though, so I decided to pick, for my last entry, a topic that should be a lot more familiar both for the platform itself, and for my followers here: crypto-economics. Precisely, trading analysis. Or, simply put, price.

I've been following closely the price of crypto-assets for the last few months, even though I stopped posted daily market snapshots. I'm well aware of the fact that Bitcoin is the new stablecoin and that STEEM is on a descending channel. There are a few pieces of information that shows we're approaching a "tipping point". Something's gotta give.

But, to be honest, it's not very clear on which direction the balance will tilt.

The low volatility of Bitcoin, the sideways trading of the entire market, the delay in ETF approvals, as well as the highly touted Bakkt launch, in December, are all symptoms of a sudden move. But in which direction?

It's easy to get biased and hope for a bull run. Especially after a year long bear market.

But a bull run is not a given. As Bitcoin's price gets more and more squeezed into a tight band of a couple of hundreds dollars just above $6,000, the pressure on the market increases. The mere fact that we're not seeing neither bulls, nor bears, forming a clear pattern, keeps both options on the table.

So, to make a long story short, I believe we're very close to a consistent market shift. Less than 30 days, I'd say, which means that this Christmas we're going to have a lot of crypto-news.

Scenario 1 - the bears take the lead

If $6,000 is broken, that will probably lead to a massive sell-off. All traders who kept their precious Bitcoin for the entire year, betting on the $6,000 resistance level to hold, may get into panic selling and that may push the price below $4,000. At this level, I guess the overall interest in the crypto market will shrink dramatically and the mere loss of volume and interest will generate another year long bear market.

In this scenario, STEEM will trade between $0.5 and $0.3, probably close to the $0.3.

Scenario 2 - the bulls take the lead

If, somehow, Bitcoin's price will go above $7,500 (which is, in my opinion, the only relevant resistance for a bull run), then we may see $8,500 on the charts before Christmas. The bull run will trigger another FOMO which will propel the price beyond $20,000 in less than 6 months.

In this scenario, STEEM will trade within the $4 - $6 corridor, probably closer to $6.

What are they key events for each scenario?

For the bears to take control I guess tighter regulation, including another postponing of ETFs, along with more FUD about "bad crypto money" may tilt the balance.

For the bulls to take control, Bakkt impact, including huge exposure in media and relevant increase in usage and liquidity, may pave the way.

Time will tell. And by time, I really mean that we're less than 30 days away from a major market event.

That's it, that was my 30 days writing challenge. Starting tomorrow, will be back to my regular crypto articles routine, thanks again to all who followed and commented.

Steem on!

---

Previous posts in the challenge:

• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day One: All Ultramarathons Start With Just One Small Step
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Two: How Much Garbage Do You Carry With You?
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Three: Pushing Things To Happen Versus Letting Them Happen "Through" You
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Four: The Rain In Spain Stays Mainly On The Plain
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Five: Books, Coffee And The Smell Of A Gentle Autumn
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Six: Revisiting The Harry Potter Trees In Turia
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Seven: Sand Castles
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Eight: Be Careful Of New Beginnings
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Nine: Tuesday's Free Writing
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Ten: The Power And Toxicity Of Lists
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Eleven: Unblocking Writer's Block - A Primer
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Twelve: Riding The Wave Of Change
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Thirteen: When All You Have Is A Hammer, Everything Looks Like A Nail
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Fourteen: Sunday Stillness
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Fifteen: The Next Major Social Disruption Will Be Technological
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Sixteen: The Difference Between Sound And Light
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Seventeen: Ten Years Of Bitcoin
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Eighteen: How Long Is Long Enough? Spoiler: Until It's Done...
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Nineteen: The Surprising Benefits Of Gratitude
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Twenty: Just A Photo Journal For Today
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Twenty One: 5 Things I Noticed So Far In Spain
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Twenty Two: Things I Look For In A Coffee Shop, From A Digital Nomad Perspective
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Twenty Three: The Inertia Of Our Identities
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Twenty Four: Adjusting To Change
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Twenty Five: Discipline
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Twenty Six: Context Is Everything
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Twenty Seven: A Time Of Introspection (Yes, It's Actually My Birthday)
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Twenty Eight: Lazy Sunday And Two Movie Recommendations
• 30 Days Challenge Fall 2018 - Day Twenty Nine: The Extra Weight You're Carrying

Steem on!

---

I'm a serial entrepreneur, blogger and ultrarunner. You can find me mainly on my blog at Dragos Roua where I write about productivity, business, relationships and running. Here on Steemit you may stay updated by following me @dragosroua.

---

Wanna know when you're getting paid?

	I know the feeling. That's why I created steem.supply, an easy to use and accurate tool for calculating your Steemit rewards

It's free to use, but if you think this is a useful addition, I'd appreciate your witness vote.

Thank you!

Psst: new to Steemit? Start Here