2/21/2018 The Market View and Trading Outlook

in #bitcoin3 years ago

Good old fashioned Bitcoin volatility.. gotta love it.. So what is happening in the world of BTC price action? Well, BTC did pretty much what I expected it would do, albeit a bit later and at a higher price point. It has come back to meet the two hour 77 period moving average after busting below the one hour 77 at $11,002. Price currently sits at $10,700 or basically on the two hour 77 period moving average. That said we are at a somewhat pivotal price point that should provide us with a semi definitive answer as to whether or not we are out of the corrective woods and on our way to much higher highs or in for a follow on shit storm of lower low corrective misery.

There are really only two possible scenarios at play for the moment. The first being an inverted head and shoulders that could lead us to considerably higher highs and the second being a downward channel that could lead us to considerably lower lows; the latter of which is (in my opinion) the least likely scenario of the two. However, in order to remain objective you have to consider both possibilities and be prepared for both so as not to be caught in a situation that could bring about panic forcing you to trade erratically and get your capital eaten away.


Let’s examine the bullish scenario first… Inverted head and shoulders..

I first noted the beginning of this pattern forming 11 days ago:


I was a bit off as to how high it would go prior to pulling back. Regardless I play in the shorter frames, was aware of it, and did better in the shorter term that I figured. I would rather be way early in recognizing a potential pattern as opposed to way late.

So what is likely? If we get a nice inverted head and shoulders then price should fall somewhere in the range of $9,500-10,100 prior to rebounding upwards, out of the channel and on its way to much higher highs. We have volume confirmation on the left shoulder, and head, but the right shoulder has yet to spike upwards validating the pattern. I have drawn what I would like to see in the volume section. The yellow box in the center is the sweet spot for a reversal to the upside as the pattern completes. Ideally, volume should spike while price is somewhere within my sweet spot, signaling reversal and good things to come. This is likely where I would begin to ladder in long positions. Of note the 4 hour 77 period moving average is also within this zone and if you examine the totality of price action since the decline around $19,900, you will notice that price ALWAYS comes back to meet the longer term moving average at some point. I briefly covered moving average pullback here https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/2-18-2018-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

As far as this pattern goes that is basically the entire story. We do know that BTC loves to shake people out at physiological strong points, or support levels that the masses feel are very strong. To that end I would not be at all surprised to a breach of $10,000 or an unsubstantiated support level that many “feel” is the tipping point in price towards the downside. This would force some nice panic sells, drop price onto the actual support of the 4 hour 77 and allow the pattern to complete, recover and go about its business of making higher highs.


Now to the ugly Bearish scenario of a descending channel.

I covered this on 2-18 as well https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/2-18-2018-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

To that end not a a lot has changed and my lines have remained the same since that analysis and we have yet to decisively break above the upwards resistance line. In fact we faced pretty hefty resistance and rejection right on it or just after breaking above it depending upon where one draws their upper channel. This pattern is pretty simple and needs little explanation. In the event of a full on bearish shit storm price will decline towards each respective longer term moving average, bounce upwards, then sharply reverse on its way towards the bottom of the channel in the sub $5000 range.


Close up of same chart, rejection at upper boundary. However, volume action appears biased towards an inverse head and shoulders, but a drop as depicted here is a possibility

Again, I don’t (at current) think this is the predominant pattern, but it could be and need to be prepared for that eventuality. Much will be learned from how price and the 4 hour 77 period moving average interact with each other; a decisive break below and a large move downwards would be concerning and could have longer term bearish consequences as we move towards a lower than $6000.00 low. At this moment this is something to be aware of and if you start to ladder in on the inverse head and shoulder set your stops around $8900-$9400 depending upon where you get in so as you can be out if things go south. I typically run stops 3-7% depending upon whether the market is bullish or bearish. In a bearish market I tighten them up, in a bullish market I give them a bit of wiggle room.


Briefly covering the 12 hour. The MACD histogram is rapidly declining and currently sits at 21 or its lowest point since the pseudo recovery started at $6000. This could be indicative of a buying period that is on its way out and a selling period that is one its way in. Accordingly RSI, which has been in the overbought area for quite some time is likewise rapidly retreating towards the south, again indicative of a likely upcoming selling period. At the moment I don’t consider any of this to be bad news as we did accomplish the mission of getting the MACD signal line above 0, which should now provide substantial support and a good bounce point towards future gains after some pullback and consolidation. In a perfect world and if BTC stays bullish and decides to play inline with fundamentals, expect a few days of sideways decline prior to confirmation of inverse head and shoulders and a move upwards. I do not expect to see 11,700 again in the next 24-48 hours.


The 1 day is essentially the same story, decreasing histogram, retreating RSI etc. Of note the rejection around $11,700 also coincides with the resistance of the MACD 0 line which we are currently below and lack the momentum to break above. The long and short of it is that we need a selling period to get rid of some weak hands, and provide more faith upon recovery so as to have the necessary momentum to break above it. In this frame the 1 day 21 period moving average is currently $9244, as long as price remains above it, it will incrementally creep upwards until it and price meet where it will provide support. In a perfect scenario, the 1 day 21 will meet up with price at about the same time as the 4 hour 77 and 12 hour MACD 0; somewhere in my sweet spot from above. At this point, price will reverse sharply upwards and higher highs would be the forecast. Keep an eye on the 1 day 21, and the 4 hour 77 for convergence with price and I would expect this to be an excellent long entry point.

In a rush, sorry for spelling errors etc.. Happy trading.. Off to finish my duck pond.

Lastly for Alt Lovers.... Check NBT (Nubits) in times of BTC correction, you may like what you see...

My Previous Analysis:













duck pond??? you're building a duck pond???????? not to diminish the importance of your btc analysis but duck pond is so exciting!!!

Lol.. yes a duck pond... I have a farm and on that farm I have some ducks.. E-I-E-I-O with a quack quack here and a quack quack there.. here a quack there a quack everywhere a quack quack.. Pekin Ducks actually, lots of them.. lol.. Finally got around to creating an actual pond for them with the trackhoe... but me being me I can't do anything small scale, so its more like swan lake.. lol.. I sell the ducks and eggs.. more of a hobby actually as I'm far from financially dependent on ducks.. but my GF likes animals, and the deal is that if something is going to be around or cost $$$ it needs to make $$$.. At current, the ducks are profitable (75 or so eggs a day plus duckling sales), accordingly I am upgrading their accommodations as they have earned their keep.. :)

so, those are the white domestic ducks, right, unable to fly? if you had mallards it might not be so profitable, lol. I've never had duck eggs but it would be nice to pick some fresh for breakfast. You should post some pics, they might make you some more money on https://steemit.com/introduceyourself/@photocontests/readme

Thanks for sharing G8 info

No problem, thanks for the comment..

You should buy Steem with your SBD at .86 and then sell your SBD for 1.02 and you will make %15 returns.

I am in and out of the little local market here all the time, picking up 1 or 2 percent..

I like your goal of one million dollar in Steem. This could happen if Steem goes to $1,000 USD but could take 10 to 15 years and become more popular than Facebook. Let me know if you want to trade Upvotes, every .12 counts.

Hey pawsdog thanks for the heads up yesterday, I have added you to my follow list so interaction, look forward to your future posts. Many Thanks bazzatc

Thanks for the comment, I look forward to getting to know you... not sure what you meant by a heads up though..

@pawsdog I think they mean the tip you sent out in our wallets! Thank you by the way... that's how I got here! Thank you for your service also. I think it is going to be interesting to get to know you. I served for a short time myself... and wish I had a duck pond. Originally from Texas... but here in Sweden there is a lake a stone's throw away that has a bunch of ducks we feed.
Glad to be here and see what you have going on! Gonna need some TA for what to do in the coming times of Growth!
Take Care and Steem On!

No worries, how did you get from Texas the Sweeden?

Following a still small voice! hahaha SVEEEEE-Den!

Musta been for a chic... lol.. that always happens.. bork bork bork..

sup bro just followed you

Sup... thank you..

Hey @pawsdog hope everything is good. Btw that fish water worked wonders!!! Thanks for the push for me to do so. So i got a question regarding people who down vote just because that person disagrees with a certain veiw . What can I do to stop that, your thoughts? Btw they seem like their white nationalist too.

Give me a bit of detail? White nationalist? just add the info here without the @

ok heres the link to the post. https://steemit.com/hodgetwins/@hodgetwins/ojjvp0tb#@jonyoudyer/re-tammymc-re-kingofnod-re-tammymc-re-hodgetwins-ojjvp0tb-20180222t001541030z

It was brought to my attention by my friend. It did seem he said some stuff that i told him to not say and keep it classy. I basically told them all to take it to facebook. I noticed there was comments being flagged that where not vulger, just a disagreement. Then what got to my nerves was they went out of there way to my friends blog just to downvote a post due to not liking an individual. MY friend is @kingofnod does have a loud mouth but going to his post to downvote which i promoted with my steem dollars is not cool. We dont need that kind of stuff on steem. the people in question are


That sucks, assholes are everywhere.. I do hate the double standard though in regards to racism.. that being that people think blacks can't be racist as fuck.. Hell, Me having grown up in ATL, I can tell you that they are usually the most violent.. especially when they have congregated into a little group.. One on one, they are usually bitches and don't like to get blasted in the mouth.. but in a group.. one will sneak you from the side, while you argue with another and then the group will beat the shit out you.. Hell they target whites for abuse and assault in many cases.. I was always the wrong white boy to fuck with... lol..

Yeah i experience that over here. Everybody thinks that if your white your rich or even worse a trump supporter. But that’s a whole different story. I’m all for discussion about the issue but flagging people’s post that has nothing to do with it is non sense. At least they didn’t go after me cause I’ll probably just rent some steem power to go after them. I’m just going to stick to what i love and ingnore those people. Hopefully my buddy does the same.

yeah, they do it to me all the time, because I either tangle with the whales, or write controversial articles.. sucks but I guess it is all part of the steemit game... Hell haejin went through two weeks ago and downvoted every paying post and comment in my blog that he could find.. sucks, but he's a greedy little dickhead whom did not like me posting facts about his calls in unbiased review form.. Again, just part of steemit and a pain in the ass..

You got some balls! Mad respect for the way you go after abusers.

thanks, how are the veggies, and what state are you in?

After yesterdays gravestone doji, it looked like a very good short opportunity. To be honest I am a bit upset that I didn't enter a short position, but I couldn't figure it out where was my stop, so I decided to sit it out. Please note that we are currently just above the 8-day, which is good that it held.
Good job as always :) Did you make some trades these days ?

In cash at the moment, sold all at 11,600.. looking for the next buy point... ETH, will be the next big winner I think...

Beep!Beep! @shadow3scalpel & listkeeper @chairborne have your six new veterans, retirees and military members on STEEM. We’ll be patrolling by to upvote your posts (because you are on the list) and we'll answer any questions you leave us. Comment by @shadowspub. This is a opt-in bot.

Nice detail on the analysis. if it only would behave the way we want! so what is happening in the world of BTC Price action. In rush, sorry for spelling eorros etc. Happy trading.. of to finish my duck pond. Thank's for the sharing post.

Everyday I understand more.

Nice detail on the analysis. If it only would behave the way we want!

Thanks for the analysis

No problem...:)

@pawsdog Thank for your analysis, yesterday I lost a lot, because in a hurry to sell

Tell me more about the trade.. entry point, exit point, why etc... ? I like conversation about trades.. and don't sweat it, we have all lost at one point or another... :)

@pawsdog I use the heiken ashi indicator in platform fbs mt-4. My prediction is wrong, I should play every 5 minutes, but I sell in the 3rd minute.

very good post

Great blog sir... liked it..👍

Hello @pawsdog , your blog is the best. vote my blog please !

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