1/29/2018 The Market View and Trading Outlook
Reposting after @Haejin Blanked my entire Blog..including my own analysis..
Up and down, Up and down.. Aren’t corrections fun? There are some I am sure, that now fully understand the concept of “death by 1000 cuts” as small percentage points of their capital are eaten away with each turn, with each panic sell, with each purchase of a top etc. Corrective markets are not fun events; the continual slow grind down begins to shape our opinions and predisposes us to lean towards the negative and expect a crash around every corner. Accordingly it encourages fear and makes the urge to panic sell each falter in price nearly impossible to suppress.
These markets are also tough as we are greedy and it drives traders to buy in, sell out, buy in, sell out over and over as they make numerous attempts to buy the lowest low and panic sell the reversals. One of the most dangerous games to play in a down trending market is pick the bottom; especially in small irrelevant time frames that trap traders into buying into a continuation of downtrend in a larger frame or purchasing a momentary top that quickly reverses in favor of the longer term trend. This pattern eats away at capital, and it eats away at confidence, which in turn brings about revenge trading, more losses, less confidence etc.
These markets are brutal events that must be played exceptionally carefully or in many cases not played at all; I’m fine sitting out and letting others go through the wood chipper if I’m not feeling it. That said don’t be afraid to sit out, or sell out and lock away profits when available.
So what is going on with BTC today? Nothing shocking or particularly unexpected as of yet, price dropped from $12,190 as it met stiff resistance at the 6 hour 77 and fell as I theorized here: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-27-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
“throwbacks are not uncommon and a retest of the breakout level is most often a reality to test if it will now offer support. So don’t get tossed around if we come back down to $11,000-ish to restest this zone. I would not be concerned about another reversal until $10,800 is once again broken.”
“The next step should be to pass $11,700 or the previous high before the latest breakdown to $10,300. Following that $12,207 will be the next major battle ground and likely place to face temporary rejection as it is the 6 hour 77 period MA.”
“The target price for this symetrical breakout move to be considered valid is 10% or $12,200; just under the 6 hour 77. If we can sustain momentum and break resistance there, the long range target for this break out is $14,100-$14,300 at which point price will pull back substantially in order to gain momentum and cement the base for future upwards moves.”
At current the 1,2,4 and 6 hour time frames have entered a selling period and as I stated in the aforementioned article:
“more will be learned from how long price sustains this level as opposed to how much it gains in the short term. The longer we stay here the more comfortable and confident investors will become with the thought of once again buying some BTC.”
We are hopefully support building at the moment and if we can maintain strong above the $11,000 mark things may get considerably better for us in the longer term. That said I do not believe we are out of the woods yet and if we hold and make it to the $14,000-$14,400 level expect an extremely strong rejection in price that will likely put the support levels we are now building to the ultimate test. If they hold, we could move sideways and up, if they fail we will most likely get a lower low in the sub $9000 range. I know it sounds odd to say that we need to go up to test the bottom, but that is “as strange as it sounds” how these things typically work out. Price moves run contrary to conventional thought and expectation; and it is for that reason so many new traders whom are making seemingly logical choices based on what outwardly appears to be the easily expected outcome end up losing a lot of money.
The next battle ground on the way back up will be $11,600, $11,930 and finally $12,200; if we hold current support levels and are able to add gains that allow us to decisively breach these levels, I would expect follow on price to continue inching toward the $14,000 mark at which point the next major market event will occur; whether that event is good or bad will remain to be seen, but I will likely sell out towards the upper $13,000’s and begin planning my future buys close to the $12,400 mark or lower. Alternatively if we begin to fall from our current levels and pass through the $10,800 I will likely sit out and begin casting short term buys around $10,200 or the top of the symmetrical triangle we broke out of at $11,100. Again this is long range speculation that may come nowhere close to coming true, but I like to keep many options on the table so as I have a tentative plan regardless of scenario. At current I only have a small amount of BTC on hand as I was stopped out at $11,650 on the BTC I purchased at $10,800 and picked up a small amount (high risk play) around $10,900 on Coinbase this morning.
So what do the charts say:
The 12 hour is not really telling me much. The MACD histogram could be narrowing indicative of a rapidly dwindling buying period. RSI is at .78 having come down from 1 so that may also be a sell indicator. I have recast the top line (yellow) in regards to the previous symmetrical triangle based on the recent +$12,000 high which would give us a new ceiling of $12,000 with a breakdown floor around $10,400. The only reason I recast based on the new high was that volume is still declining at a very noticeable rate which is indicative of a symmetrical triangle. The recast also gives me two definitive touches of upper resistance and three bounces from lower support. The market for the moment is hit or miss. If we can hold prices above $11,200 for the next 6 or 12 hours we should slowly continue our march onwards and upwards to face rejection at $14,000; if we begin to break down, we should sit out and wait for another reasonable buy point to present itself.
My Previous Analysis: