1/27/2017 The Market View and Trading Outlook
Interesting morning in the market and we may be attempting to break out of the symmetrical triangle and head upwards and finally bring an end to this brutal correction. Again that is a “may” as in “maybe”, but not definitely. We did break above the top of the triangle at $11,100 on higher than average volume, but were stopped in our tracks around $11,500. I took a stab at it at $10,800 and my stops are currently $11,150 to give myself a bit of a volatility cushion and an out if things turn bad; come on you didn't think I would miss the move did you... :)
The next step should be to pass $11,700 or the previous high before the latest breakdown to $10,300. Following that $12,207 will be the next major battle ground and likely place to face temporary rejection as it is the 6 hour 77 period MA.
The target price for this symetrical breakout move to be considered valid is 10% or $12,200; just under the 6 hour 77. If we can sustain momentum and break resistance there the long range target for this break out is $14,100-$14,300 at which point price will pull back substantially in order to gain momentum and cement the base for future upwards moves. Source: http://thepatternsite.com/st.html
On a positive note the MACD for the 1 day is finally turning up and we may be heading towards greener pastures. That said throwbacks are not uncommon and a retest of the breakout level is most often a reality to test if it will now offer support. So don’t get tossed around if we come back down to $11,000-ish to restest this zone. I would not be concerned about another reversal until $10,800 is once again broken. We have also broken above the two hour 77 and price is flirting above the 4 hour 77 as I noted here in my analysis of the 4 hour time frame: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-23-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
Lastly let us not forget that the first symmetrical triangle is likewise still in play as I noted on the 16th here: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-16-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook with this image:
That said be careful play it cautious and more will be learned from how long price sustains this level as opposed to how much it gains in the short term. The longer we stay here the more comfortable and confident investors will become with the thought of once again buying some BTC. Be careful of buying highs after quick run ups as that may be FOMO’s pushing price beyond support levels only to be forced out on pullbacks.
My Previous Analysis:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-26-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-25-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-24-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-23-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-22-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-21-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-20-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook-evening
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Comment by @killerwhale. This is a opt-in bot.
A close above 11 440$ is a good indicator for the bulls. The 21 EMA is 14 425$, so this might cause a bit of a pull-back if we even reach this level. I totally agree that investors are building confidence bit by bit, as long as we hold these levels. Things are starting to look better for the HODLERS.
Wow.. funny coincidence.. but I did the math wrong the first time.. as I was in the wrong frame.. but check this out.. The breakout target is the high of the triangle ($14,356) minus the low of the triangle (9231.00) x .66 = (added to the breakout price) so I have 14356 - 9231 =5125 x.66=3382.5 + 11,100=14,382.50 So +/-$50 of the 21 EMA.. Which again we would agree is going to be a stumbling block for price to pull back and I will set my limit sells starting at $14,125 with buys at 38% Fib if we stay bullish and increase size down to the 50%.. I will have to determine were I think the move started in which time frame to figure out how to fib it if we get there.. but that is the plan at the moment.. things change and I will likely up my stops in the evening if things stay strong to cash out at the upper end of a potential reversal.. Still planning it out, but that is the thought at the moment... I'll leave the figures in the article as they should still let folks get out in time before the 21 EMA rejection.
Ethereum is extremely strong ! It is showing relative strenght compared to BTC, just wanted to let you know. You are the best crypto trader I know TBH. GOOD WORK !
I agree with this and your previous statement about things are starting to look good for the HODL'ers again. I predicted that Eth would hit 1 grand before Dash coin but I was wrong. I also said that I didn't understand how this happened, because I feel Eth is so much stronger than Dash. As I am learning more about the market patterns (thanks to @pawsdog) I see that after the correction, 1 dash is below 1 grand and 1 eth is above 1 grand. This is indicative, to me, that I was right about Eth.
Eth has held very well over this massive crash we've had to endure and I think it can be the next coin to hit 10 grand.
It sucks when it comes to dash, because something told me to drop them at $1500. I didn't listen. Ugh. Could have doubled my dash right now....
Dash is still definitely one of my favorites and I think it's got potential, however; when compared to ETH, I feel Eth is stronger so it makes sense if Eth stays ahead of Dash.
ETH is showing relative strenght and people buy Ether, because they feel it is a good choice compared to BTC. In my opinion Ether is going to be strong, until blockchain 3.0 really step up their game.
Agreed.. I grabbed some at $975 as the 1000 price point was proving very strong... Curious if it can hold the 1 hour 77 at $1035.. Nah I do o.k.. curious to see how it holds.. we still need 10% or $12,200 for it to be valid.. so that is the first step.. likely fall back to $11,100 or lower first to retest the breakout.. It will either hold or fold.. I'll be out by then anyway more than likely.. but curious how it will do..
Hey, I also wanted to thank you for the mention in your post, I really appreciate your kind words and they mean a lot to me. I consider you to be my first Steemit friend! Thank you
On a trading note - I would really like to receive your buy/sell signal before you buy or sell, I have to capitalize on your hard work combined with talent
No worries, a big part of success here is networking.. Did you finish the article you mentioned on the shit post.. ? I think steemcleaners is about to hit him hard.. Not sure how to do what your requesting. I post most of my decisions here. Some happen in the minute and I don't want to be responsible for someone else taking a hit. I'm happy to talk trade decisions and plan buys together or come to an opinion we can both agree on.. Talent.. mehh.. maybe.. lots of time and experience.. plus paid for my tuition with losses years ago in standard commodities.. When I first got involved in crypto I just watched the market for a couple months to shadow trade or fantasy trade it as it moved so fast compared to what I was used to.. When I started breaking even or to the + on fantasy trades I came in small and worked up from there..
I don't know if I've told you, but I am a trader by profession. The problem is that crypto behave a lot stranger than stocks and commodities. Although tha same TA applies here. You can see my intro post HERE
On the article topic, I decided to write it another day, because I didn't want negativity in my Weekend. I try to stay as positive as possible, as I believe this is the key to a happy and successful life.
do you use discord ?
I do I use steemit chat more often as I find it simpler.. yes crypto is different, likely because there really is no FA only TA, which is very strange to many traditional commodities traders...