Bitcoin to $80,000 before May 2020 and $1 billion by December 2020?

in #bitcoin2 months ago (edited)

Mounting speculative evidence¹ portends a possible (albeit vexing) moonshot in the Bitcoin price before the May 2020 halving. Followed by a SegWit-donations-financed catapult to Pluto for only the legacy Bitcoin after the said halving.

I won’t facetiously commit to eating my dick[an anatomically implausible act] as a wager on what I believe will transpire.

The implications on society are explained in the section §Footnotes below, and essentially depicted in the following video:

And explained w.r.t. economics:

Explained w.r.t. Europe’s collective societalcide psychology (c.f. also section §Societalcide below):

Unemployment in the West is headed greater than 30% no later than 2033:


Fed – No Surprise – The Next Bubble
— Armstrong 2013

The societalcide implications were developed in detail in my past blogs:

Mounting Speculative Evidence

Three reasons the next bitcoin rally will be monumental points out that the floodgates appear to be opening for a potentially massive institutional investor surge into Bitcoin. C.f. also my Tether, Mining Equipment, and legacy Bitcoin response to @zoidsoft in the comments below this blog.

Referring again back to the live version of the nearly complete Bitcoin price history chart which I have discussed in my recent very important blogs McAfee’s Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoin’s ACCELERATING price and Phoenix rises in 2020; all altcoins (including Bitcoin Core) will be 50+% attacked/destroyed:

Note a repeating pattern of two distinct plateau move rises from each (e.g. 6 and 9) cryptowinter bottom, forming the base before the start of the accelerating phase-transition² rise to the next ATH (e.g. 7 and 10 respectively).


Phase Transition

The same pattern is evident (viewed zoomed in) between the (formerly ATH) peaks 7 and 8 of two plateau moves out of the cryptowinter bottom before the parabolic moonshot move to the next ATH.

The pattern is ostensibly repeating again now, with the at least first of two plateau moves completed.

Note the annotated white line as drawn to the top of the first (of two) plateau move(s) between the peaks 8 and 10 and for the current case after peak 10. The white lines are drawn to the top of the second (of two) plateau move(s) for the other two said instances of the pattern. Thus other than the thicker white line between peaks 7 and 8 (which I added to the chart), the slope of the white lines is rotating counter-clockwise if consistently drawn to the top of the second plateau move.

Next notice that on two of the prior instances of the pattern, the second plateau move completed before the November 28 2012 and July 9 2016 halving events. The kickoff of the moonshot to the next ATH ensued immediately after the halving event. And November 28 2012 demarcated the break above the annotated white line.

Thus the second plateau move should complete before the coming May 14, 2020 halving event.

Additionally for numerous topological mathematical reasons McAfee has pointed out that the Bitcoin price is accelerating (for which I have posited the fundamental impetus).

And note that the current first plateau move is accelerated both in time as tweened and proportional magnitude compared to the prior instances:

IntervalPreceding ATHBottom1st Plateau2nd PlateauEnding ATH
57$31$2
-94%
$7$15$265
78$265$65
-76%
$100$140$1170
810$1170$162
-86%
$502$779$19,666
10?˟$19,666$3122
-84%
$13,875$30,000+˟$650+k˟
Interval1st Plateau1st Plateau2nd Plateau2nd PlateauEnding ATHEnding ATH
5717%23%45%48%907%855%
7818%38%38%53%553%442%
81034%43%61%67%1935%1681%
10?˟65%71%150%˟
to 172%
148%˟3946%˟
to 7500%
3305%˟

Proportional to the difference between Preceding ATH and Bottom.
Proportional to Preceding ATH.
˟Tweened guesstimates. Perhaps higher due to non-linear acceleration?

Another perhaps more compelling interpretation is instead that the second plateau move has completed. In which case the annotated white line for the current pattern will not have to rotate counter-clockwise tilted the “wrong direction” beyond horizontal. The first plateau would have completed in either January 2019 at $4500 or April 2019 at $5600. This would more closely resemble the instance of the pattern interval between the peaks 7 and 8.

IntervalPreceding ATHBottom1st Plateau2nd Plateau3rd PlateauEnding ATH
10?˟$19,666$3122
-84%
$5600$13,875$80,000+˟$650+k˟
Interval1st Plateau2nd Plateau3rd PlateauEnding ATH
10?˟15%65%553%˟
to 2062%
4028%˟
to 10,000%

The third plateau move is my longstanding fractal conjecture to resemble year 2013 caused by a “poison pill” defense mechanism readoption of legacy Bitcoin by destroying the alleged/posited impostor BitcOn Core. Additionally the front running of the halving and the shifting momentum relative to the stock-to-flows model, c.f. also:


Anticipating The 2020 Bitcoin Halving Rally



Bitcoin stock to flow model live chart



RSI is indicating a sudden rise in the price is imminent analogous to 2013 (not 2017)

With year 2013 as the template for 2020 then the 3rd Plateau will complete by April/May 2020 and McAfee’s dick line $1+ million ATH by November/December 2020.

4 Years Multiple

If the 149 value of the 4 Years Multiple repeats during April/May before the upcoming May 14, 2020 halving, the peak price would be $480 × 149 = $71,520:


4 Years Multiple

If the Ending ATH occurs November/December 2020 and repeats the 36 value for the Preceding ATH, the peak price would be $800 × 36 = $28,800.

However, my research on the complete history of the early Bitcoin prices indicates that the multiple value was in excess of 1250000 at the November 2013 peak (i.e. peak 8 on first chart on the blog).

Thus the upper limit for 4 Years Multiple price for November/December 2020 Ending ATH in the posited readoption, accelerated, catapult scenario of the prior section would be mathematically $800 × 1250000 = $1 billion per Bitcoin!

The multiple value was 200 for the 1st Plateau in November 2015. Thus $480 × 200 = $96,000 before the halving is within the noise band of this 4 Years Multiple indicator.

Shrinking Bitcoin Supply

The outlandish $1 billion per Bitcoin becomes more plausible if McAfee is correct that 7 million Bitcoins have been lost, and if another 6+ million with tainted SegWit lineage are going to be frozen by the miners per regulation of the FATF. If ultimately we end up with only Satoshi’s Bitcoins remaining tradable at some juncture (i.e. think of a monetary reset corresponding to a Bitcoin reset, kicking all the freeloader plebs off leaving only TPTB in control), then the programmed 21 million supply could be reduced to 1 million unfrozen, untainted Bitcoins.

Regarding the total number of SegWit/P2SH tainted Bitcoins (for which the ~6 million stored in ~10 million non-legacy P2SH addresses would underestimate, because of those who spend from a 3 or bc1 P2SH to a 1 legacy address), only ~6 million BTC hasn’t moved since SegWit adoption became significant and only ~3 million hasn’t move since P2SH adoption became significant. Thus the tainted total to be frozen by the FATF could be up to 15 of the 18 million.

And how many of those recently dormant have lost private keys? 3 million have been dormant for 6+ years.

The FATF could effectively become the world’s future central bank.

Digging out those statistics above and noting only 10 million non-legacy UTXO addresses, then given 148 bytes per transaction input, the entire P2SH booty could be donated to the legacy Bitcoin miners within ~1450 blocks (i.e. ~11 days) given no competition in terms of higher transaction fees from other transactions.

Conclusion

The main takeaway to learn from the above exposition is that Bitcoin ostensibly has a complex periodic heartbeat and it’s erroneous to conclude that Bitcoin is decelerating without considering that such an interpretation may be a myopic illusion due to destructive interference of the oscillating fractal patterns. Much of the speculative evidence seems to indicate Bitcoin is unequivocally accelerating and potentially in a sudden manner that will shock everyone per the Lily pad allegory.

See also my recent Twitter discussions on this topic:

Footnotes (very important!)

  1. ¹ There’s measurable order in deterministic chaos, c.f. section §Charts already contain evidence of this coming future in my recent blog Phoenix rises in 2020; all altcoins (including Bitcoin Core) will be 50+% attacked/destroyed.

  2. ² It’s important to understand that phase transitions are non-linear, typically “52 to 59 weeks” and “often alter the thinking of people so dramatically that they lose all reason”. Note even though Armstrong has been ridiculously negative about the long-term prospects of Bitcoin, he noted the possibility that the $19,666 2017 ATH may be a plateau move instead of a phase transition as Bitcoin and U.S. stock markets aligned with the November 25 2017 ECM turn date. This was after Bitcoin began to rise on the pivotal October 1 2015 (aka 2015.⁷⁵) ECM turn date, into the first of the aforementioned two smaller plateau moves. Armstrong speculated about the phase transition economic collapse and monetary reset approaching:

    We are most likely going to see a new monetary system where the dollar will no longer be the reserve currency. That will probably become some form of a basket. This is the collapse of the West just as communism collapsed and altered the course of China and Russia. Therefore, we are looking at the shift of the financial capitol of the world from the West to the East dominated in India/China. As we can see, the financial capitol of the world always migrates. After Rome and the fall of Byzantium, the capital moved to India. It then moved to China. When Christopher Columbus set sail, he was trying to get to India because that was where all the money was. You do not set sail to be to a slum in a third world country. Europe was rising, but it was Europe which had been reduced to a third world status.

    The other side of a Phase Transition will be the fall of the West. That is just how things evolve. We are plagued with politicians who are incapable of making any changes to save the country because they are too busy grabbing the free soap in the hotel room.


    Be it nature or politics, everything dies in a Phase Transition. The fall of communism in 1989 was abrupt and swept from China to Russia within a matter of months. Western political systems will simply collapse by this same process. Everything dies in an explosive Phase Transition. It is said when you die you see your entire life flash before your eyes in a Phase Transition of your consciousness coming to an end like a massive computer crash.

    There is no exception to this phenomenon. We live in a sheltered world that assumes man can control the economy and society. We simply cannot accomplish this miracle because we always self-destruct — Phase Transitions in Nature – An Exploding Star


    I have been warning that the USA will be the last to fall. The stress on the world monetary system will be seen outside the USA. We have seen defaults on foreign denominated debt by now in Lebanon. This is just the beginning. We are looking at a contagion spreading in 2020 on a global scale. — Rise in US Dollar Will Force Defaults in Third World


    I find it interesting how the rest of the world is declining and Socrates forecast that the US economy would be only slightly weak going into January 2020 […] The US economy was not poised for a major recession that everyone was forecasting because of the China trade dispute. It is softer, yes, but it is really holding up the entire world economy — US Economy Soft – But Holding


    The current Repo crisis³ is about to kick off the phase transition of rising interest rates which will implode Western civilization:

    The three targets are price: 18500, 23000, and 30000-40000. That is independent of TIME. The doubling is the minimum. Our original forecast that the Dow would at least double by 2015 from the 2009 low of 6440 gave us a MINIMUM target of 12000-13000. We exceeded that and went to the next target of 18500. The next level being 23000 is at the MINIMUM requirement for a Phase Transition — double […] Those who continue to predict a collapse in the stock market as some catastrophic event where only gold will rise, have no clue that gold is by no means a viable safe-haven for the big money — that is for the individual.

    Big money must choose between equities and bonds. We are at effectively reaching a 5,000-year low in interest rates! It cannot get more bearish than this for government. What we face is monumental.The Coming Phase Transition & the Dow

    The chart above shows we face the end of 3000 year Babylonian cycle wherein humans trusted civilization (aka government) to make them secure and lower the risks of debt — Babylonian surety being the antithesis of Jesus’ example and what the Lord commanded in 1 Samuel 8! Now comes the reversion to chaos, end of the nanny-state, end of democracy, self-reliance, in-God-we-trust, etc.. We face the end of the Sixth 309.⁶ Year Wave of Six 51.⁶ Year Waves:


    I blogged at the start of 2019 in Countries Vulnerable to Economic Devastation Soon:

    As interest rates rise back to normalized levels of 7% (from the current 2% after a slight pause into 2020), not only will fewer people be able to afford to buy a home (and thus real estate and housing prices will crash again), also the servicing of the global (and especially Western) debt is going to consume an ever greater portion of incomes (including tax income for governments):

    And because governments will raise taxes. Bill Gates explained, the fact the ultra rich couldn’t possibly be made pay for it (because they can always side-step predatory taxes or as Amazon.com’s recent bailing out of NY plans, they can just leave and take their business elsewhere), so the taxes are going to be raised on the middle class (and also the stagflation will be an indirect tax on the poor). The abnormally low interest rates irreparably bankrupted the pension plans in the West and the general decline coming will cause a massive rise in demand for welfare, both of which the government will be tasked with paying for. So net incomes collapse while taxes and thus costs of everything will rise. Also the malinvestment caused by the debt bubble combined with the increased regulation and costs of complying with socialism, will also force the costs of everything higher as it has destroyed supply. There’s an imminent conflagration (and probably contagion) of effects from the borrowed-time and idiotic moral hazards of socialism and leftist ideology that have pervaded Western civilization.

  3. ³ PRIVATE BLOG – Repo Crisis is Getting Critical.

    Is Trump Being Kept in the Dark?:

    The problem is there has been a massive defense perimeter around Trump […] But I also know many people have tried to penetrate that defensive perimeter without success […] His statement that he thinks the Fed should have negative interest rates demonstrates he is being kept in the dark.

    Once upon a time, I could write to the President and get a response in a matter of days […] While our computer shows he [Trump] should win, it also shows he may not finish out a second term. I do not think that is due to some impeachment. My concern remains that he has one thing in common with JFK. They both were against war. Even JFK stated in the debate with Nixon that the decline in the dollar was because the military was expanding globally […]

    My concern is that the coup against Trump from the intelligence agencies is all about they see him as curtailing their power. The Neo-Cons hate him with a passion for he will not just invade Iran. Then we have the Monetary Crisis Cycle. Trump would be the BEST person to have there during that crisis. Any career politician will do whatever it takes to support government at the expense of the people. Trump will return to the private sector so he would NEVER agree to a law that would harm his own business prospects in the future.

    Trump & Fed Meet – Why?:

    The unannounced meeting between the Fed and Trump was a briefing on the Repo Crisis BECAUSE the real crisis cannot be discussed publicly. I have not been getting much sleep lately. This is a very serious crisis […] I appreciate the severity of this crisis. Requests to attend board meetings I have only been available by phone. I simply cannot fly all over the place. I really wish I could just come out and spill the beans, but this situation is too critical at this point and I fear that if someone does not blink here, we are headed into a global political contagion.

    This is why a deal had to be tentatively arranged with China on trade.

    Repo & Disinformation:

    You said that the Fed didn’traise[lower] rates a few days ago because the Repo crisis won’t let them. Interestingly, Trump hasn’t blasted Fed chairman Powell for not lowering rates more over the past few weeks. Do you think Trump is [now] aware that the Fed can’t lower […] This is not Quantitative Easing […] The Fed is trying to prevent short-term rates from rising because there is a liquidity crisis created by banks refusing to participate in the repo market […] I believe the White House has been briefed on the crisis and it has also impacted the China trade negotiations.

    Market Talk – December 13, 2019:

    US and China have passed “phase one” of the trade deal, which has halted the upcoming Sunday tariffs that would have applied tariffs on 160 Billion USD worth of goods. China, meanwhile, has agreed to up their spending on US agricultural products to 50 billion USD in the new year. Trump tweeted that they will work straight away on “phase two” rather than waiting for after the elections […] The US and China plan to sign phase one of the trade deal in January, according to US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. China has agreed to purchase $40 billion worth of US agriculture products, although Trump is pushing for $50 billion. Lighthizer also stated that China agreed to “structural reforms” to meet the US’ demand for increased intellectual security. The US will maintain 25% tariffs on $250 worth of Chinese imports. Additionally, the US will reduce tariffs on $120 billion of Chinese goods to 7.5% from 15% after the deal has been finalized for 30 days. President Trump said negotiations for phase two of the deal will begin “immediately” after phase one is signed.

    The US markets were barely impacted by the US-China trade news, as skepticism over the finalization remains. National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow called the verbal agreement a sign of “goodwill” but is not fully confident that the deal will be implemented. “We will see if the Chinese stick with their word,” Kudlow told reporters at CNBC. Furthermore, Kudlow stated that there is a chance the Chinese may still ratify the agreement prior to signing.

    Market Talk – December 12, 2019:

    According to reports from Reuters, China is trying to propose a plan to promote Macau to be its next “Hong Kong” by building it into a world-leading financial center. China unveiled plans of creating a yuan-denominated stock exchange, as well as allocating extra land to Macau for it to grow. The region was a former Portuguese colony and will target companies from Portuguese speaking countries such as Brazil in order to avoid direct competition with China and the mainland […] The US-China trade deal is close to completion, according to President Trump. “Getting VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China. They want it, and so do we!” he posted this Thursday. CNBC reported that US negotiators are ready to cancel the new tariffs and cut existing tariffs by 50% ($360 billion). With only three days left before the US imposes an additional $156 billion on Chinese goods, time is of the essence.

    Market Talk – December 11, 2019:

    According to CNBC, Chinese negotiators would like all the upcoming US tariffs removed before the December 15th deadline if they are going to proceed with negotiations. It is expected that the 156 billion USD worth of tariffs will significantly escalate tensions between the two nations if applied […] The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to hold rates at 1.5% to 1.75%. “The Committee judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective,” according to the official FOMC statement. The FOMC had voted to lower rates on three separate occasions this year, however, they anticipate rates will remain steady into 2020. The Fed foresees conditions warranting a hike come 2021, followed by another increase in 2022.

    Repo Crisis:

    When the Fed announced its rate cut, not a single journalist asked any question that addressed the liquidity crisis. It is like it did not exist but they seem desperate to cover it up. Do you think the mainstream press is just stupid or are they part of the cover-up to try to hide the liquidity crisis you had forecast at Rome would unfold in September? […] It is hard to say how 7 business journalists that cover Wall Street asked questions during the first half-hour, yet not a single one asked about the liquidity crisis. It is as if the Fed’s injection into 23 Wall Street securities firms plus one foreign bank, in addition to buying up $60 billion a month in Treasury bills from Wall Street dealers, has never taken place. It does beg the question of whether they are stupid or deliberately not asking key questions?

    The Fed began its Repo loan interventions on September 17th BECAUSE banks no longer trust banks. This liquidity crisis is where the economic stresses will always take place when there is a question as to the security of the players in the market. There have been frightening similarities to the liquidity crisis of 1998 and 2007-2009.

    Fed Repo Funding for Year-End:

    No I cannot comment on this open blog. It is far too serious an issue and since nobody is discussing the real issue, I would be blamed for setting a crisis in motion because the governments will never admit they caused anything […] The Fed did not lower rates BECAUSE they cannot. This Repo Crisis is all about them trying to PREVENT short-term rates from rising. They have stated that the economy is strong. This is not QE to stimulate the economy as it was 2007-2009. This is a liquidity crisis BECAUSE banks no longer trust banks and everyone is running scared to lend money for nobody knows who has exposure in Europe goes belly-up.

    QE v Managing Benchmark Rates:

    I cannot go into elaborate detail on this blog. I do not want to be accused of starting a financial panic for the way things always work is they need someone to blame. I get calls from those involved so anything I would report would not be opinion or speculation. Hence, I must respect what is unfolding and it has to be in a report or at a conference, not on this blog where we do not restrict who comes in or out.

    REPO Crisis:

    […] The Fed cannot prop up the entire world. The liquidity crisis is unfolding in Europe — NOT the USA!!!! Banks no longer trust banks so they are placing it with the Fed rather than with other banks because nobody understands what is going on.

    Understanding the Repo Crisis:

    The raid on Deutsche Bank in Germany back in September over the money laundering probe of Danske Bank, which is the biggest lender in Denmark, contributed to the sudden collapse in confidence. The governments are desperate for money and they are hunting it on a global scale […] The banker there in the Estonia branch of Danske, Aivar Rehe, was found dead by police there in Estonia. He had been previously questioned by prosecutors and was considered to be THE key witness in the money laundering probe. As always, just like Jeffrey Epstein, his death was [unbelievably] declared to be a suicide. This is standard whenever they need to cover something up. Boris Berezovsky suddenly commits suicide […] Anyone who could expose things others do not want always seems to commit suicide.

    The crisis in liquidity is that American bankers will NOT lend to Europe. Because of the European Banking Crisis, banks just do not trust banks. Nobody knows who will be standing after a failure at Deutsche Bank. The Fed has had to step in to be the neutral lender NOT because of a crisis in the USA, but because of the collapse in confidence in Europe’s banking system as a whole. Stay alert – this is just getting started.

    Why the Fed Is Not Lowering Rates:

    The central bank has been in control of short-term rates, not long-term. The Quantitative Easing of 2008-2009 was all about reducing the supply of long-term debt in hopes of lowering long-term rates, which they hoped would revitalize the real estate market. Here, the Fed is dealing with its own perceived power. The mere fact that the Fed had to step into the repo market and continues to provide liquidity is an effort to prevent short-term rates from rising. It also reflects the reality that the Fed has lost control of interest rates. They will ultimately be unsuccessful in maintaining control over short-term rates on a sustained basis. We are entering a whole new dimension […] The Fed cannot lower rates when the pressures are for rates to rise due to risk factors nobody will talk about publicly.

    The Mother of all Financial Crises:

    With all the disinformation circulating around about this Repo Crisis, one must question can they really be that stupid? This is really the Mother of all Financial Crises, which will impact everything it touches. This will make the 2007-2009 financial crisis look like a trial run. There is no politician who will stand up and talk about this crisis nor will they dare to even ask pertinent questions for fear of what will be revealed.

    This is why this report does not end with this report alone. We will update it next year as everything unfolds. So it is more like a subscription to this catastrophe.

    BIS Hiding the Truth or Covering Their Exposure:

    It does seem a bit disingenuous to point out that banks are unwilling to lend and prefer Treasuries without explaining fully what is behind that decision. Nevertheless, they cannot come out and report the truth when they are also in the mix. As I said before, that is not where it began. There are three phases to this. We are only in Phase II. The Mother of all Financial Crises has yet to come.

    Repo Crisis – Best Kept Secret Ever!:

    Nobody will talk publicly. Everyone is scared to death of starting a panic. This is the BEST kept secret I have ever seen in my career. The real test comes at year-end when banks typically step back from the repo market so that their balance sheets are smaller for December 31 regulatory calculations. We will see what really happens then on the chaos scale of 1 to 10. I find it really funny how there are articles calling it the new QE to where the Fed is clandestinely buying T-Bills through repo. This really seems to be an orchestrated effort at disinformation. It is hard to say if the people who make this up are deliberate agents of the government hired to keep people looking in the wrong direction.

    Mother of All Financial Crises:

    The distinction between the Repo Crisis and Quantitative Easing is the duration and purpose as distinguished from 2007-2009? […] es. Under QE, the Fed was buying in 30-year bonds in hope of creating a shortage of long-term paper that would in theory lead to consideration of buying long-term mortgage paper. It was trying to reduce the competition of government long-term debt with the private sector. That is when I warned that such a policy would fail because it was INDIRECT and the assumption that the holder of the 30-year bond they were buying-in was American. I warned on Capital Hill that the Chinese were selling their 30-year debt holdings to the Fed and reducing their maturity to 5 years. Hence, the stimulus was being exported and today, the dollar hoarding is massive. Even 70% of physical dollars are outside the USA.

    Here once again we have people who have no understanding of banking spouting out nonsense that this is QE because the Fed’s balance sheet must be expanding. Under QE, they permanently bought-in debt. Here in the Repo Crisis, they are acting as the middle-man providing liquidity on a 24 hours basis BECAUSE banks do not trust banks.

    TPTB banksters (e.g. Rothschild) are clearly implementing their usual playbook To Foretell the Future, Think Like a Banker and the long-planned strangulation via the BIS Basel standards ratcheting, former IMF head Lagarde, Goldman Sachs, etc:

    Relevant blogs include:

    Central Banks Buying More Equities than Gold? Why?:

    Marty; It seems when Goldman Sachs makes a recommendation, it tends to be the kiss of death. They came out and said the stock market was going to crash at the end of 2017 just before it broke out. Now they are pitching gold […] Yes, it often seems to be the old trick that was played by the Salomon Brothers. Their analysts would be quoted widely touting to buy some bond and they were inevitably the sellers […] Goldman Sachs’ new claim saying “gold’s strategic case still strong” pointing to central bank buying is highly questionable […] seems to be a half-truth. Because the euro is paying a negative interest rate, the only way for central banks to diversify has been to buy gold and equities. Otherwise, all they have are dollars. There are people on the board at the European Central Bank proposing that they too begin to buy equities in Europe.

    The amount of gold added to central bank portfolios was […] only about $57 billion of gold in the past 3 years. They bought more than $1 trillion of equities in 2018.

    Negative Interest Rates is the Way to Kill a Reserve Currency:

    Christine Lagarde said back in August that the European Central Bank still had room to cut rates if needed. However, she added that this could pose a challenge to financial stability in Europe. More and more banks are passing on the negative interest rates to depositors and this is undermining the elderly and pensions. From a broader view, this policy of negative interest rates has undermined the euro even as a reserve currency. Nobody wants it in their books. It is like it has the plague. I cannot express how serious this policy of negative interest rates has been. It has been the cure to eliminate the euro as a reserve currency. If the US wants to kill the dollar, just adopt negative interest rates and watch how it plummets.

    I believe you may see Lagarde try to unravel this mess created by Draghi.

    Legarde & Green Bonds:

    If she can use the climate change nonsense to shame Germany into agreeing to issue Eurobonds, it would be a step to eliminate the refusal to issue a single European debt. If Legarde can sell that issue, then it will restructure Europe’s debt position.

    Lagarde – ECB – Euro:

    The central banks are keenly aware that they cannot stimulate economic growth, although they will not state that publicly […] Christine Lagarde was supported among members of the ECB who disagreed with Draghi. This resulted in a deadlock among Eurozone policymakers […] What I was hearing 2 years ago […] a serious clash when it came time to the ECB’s rate-setting committee with departing President Mario Draghi’s negative interest rates and never-ending QE. If such policies were to work, it should have done so quickly within a year or two, and not 5 years of negative rates and 11 years of QE.

    Lagarde was providing hints that she would seek consensus among politicians in the Eurozone for fiscal policy changes […] she is aware Draghi’s policy has been a failure but the ECB is trapped […] at a time of rising challenges for central bankers when the economy is turning downward despite all the stimulus and inflation remains subdued. At the same time, interest rates remain artificially low and there are questions over what policymakers have that could do anything to combat a more serious downturn. Lagarde has begun lobbying governments and arguing they need to step in with fiscal stimulus to fill the gap […] While she pretends that the ECB can cut interest rates further despite already being at a record-low -0.4%, she also realizes it is causing massive problems. It has become a deterrent for the euro to be considered a reserve currency. There have been other side effects from keeping rates well below zero for too long, such as promoting a pension crisis nobody wishes to address publicly for fear of creating a panic […] Lagarde further acknowledged that “it will be essential to closely monitor whether adverse side effects may emerge in the future, the longer low interest rates are in place.”

    I blogged 2 years ago in Get Ready for a World Currency:

    Euro is a Monetary Enslavement Paradigm

    Analogous to the domestic political aversion to external monetary discipline mentioned in #2 of the prior section, a single currency that would be used in daily commerce by everyone would never exist without monumental collapse in governments and a new one world government to institute a global fiat (↖click link for full text of The Economist), because the natural entropic tendency is for competing cultures and societies to form separate fiat currencies enabling local political-economic fitness:

    Since there is no central international monetary authority, an SDR-based system would…mean that nations relinquish the ability to use monetary policy to pursue domestic policy objectives, a very unpopular alternative.”— White House Council of Economic Advisors Nov. 8, 1995

    For example, denominating Greece’s debt in Euros whilst Greece remained fiscally independent from other EU states, i.e. relinquishing its national Drachma currency to Euro integration but not integrating fiscally and thus political-economically is as sustainable as being half-pregnant, meant that Greece’s productivity had to rise as fast as Germany’s (reflected in the rise of value of Euro), but this is impossible because Greece is different than Germany.

    Phoenix Rises as a Hegelian Dialectic

    In addition to the issue of domestic political aversion to external monetary discipline, international monetary capital flows will park where there is the most liquidity* (i.e. where most other international monetary capital flows), except when not parking and seeking investment yield. This unavoidable/unstoppable free market phenomenon creates a singular (but not eternal/static) self-reinforcing PUBLIC CONFIDENCE driven international reserve store-of-value— a monetized medium-of-saving in post-Austrian Moldbug Monetary Theory (MoMT):

    The Repo Crisis:

    The Fed is NOT engaging in QE nor is it engaging in MMT. The Fed is standing in the middle because banks do not trust banks. The crisis is by NO MEANS in the United States. They also fail to grasp why the dollar is the world’s reserve currency, the hoarding of dollars globally, or what this crisis is even about. They interpret any increase in the quantity of money as inflationary. We have had more than 10 years of QE in Japan and Europe with no inflation […] Nobody will talk and the central banks cannot dare utter a single word about the source of the crisis for fear of creating a political crisis. Even the heads of states are being left in the dark. Trump has called for negative interest rates because he does not understand the crisis because nobody is talking.

    Why the Fed Stopped Lowering Short-term Rates:

    This is confirming that all central banks have LOST control of short-term rates […] We face something that has NEVER before been witnessed in economic history.

    The Truth Behind the Repo Crisis:

    Perhaps I should have named this report “The Mother of all Financial Crises.” The Repo Crisis is just part II in the lead-up to Big Bang [which kicks-off in earnest at my pivotal January 18, 2020 ECM turn date] that nobody seems to grasp is already unfolding. This is the Sovereign Debt Crisis on steroids. Whatever they could have done wrong, they have done with absolute precision. The projected losses for institutions I have laid out will range from 40% to 60% of assets. This time, whoever is caught holding will not be bailed out this time around. This is the combination of the 1998 Liquidity Crisis and the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis. So hang on to whatever you can grab ahold of.

    The Big Bang and the Process Unfolding into 2025:

    The cracks in the system will begin to appear next year [2020]. This is part of the Big Bang that began 2015.⁷⁵, and was the PEAK in government confidence. As this unfolds, it will become clearer as to where to go. Keep in mind that the collapse in governments is predominantly in the West, which includes South America. There will be rising separatist movements, so we will see varying pockets of political unrest. We are just too far away from that for me to speak without guessing. It does appear that Asia will be the better place in general. They are not embracing socialism or this insane climate change agenda.

    Misrepresenting Our Forecast for the Start of Big Bang 2015.⁷⁵:

    I find it really shocking how people are slandering you claiming you forecast that 2015.⁷⁵ would be the collapse of everything instead of the peak in governments and the beginning of the decline and fall. You have made that very clear that this was the turning point to begin the change. It was the precise day Russia sent troops into Syria. It was the start of the massive migration of refugees to Europe. It was the start of the shift in politics that led to Trump’s victory the following year […] It is an outright misrepresentation of our forecasts and it is deliberate. Our post back in 2014 laid it out clearly:

    “As we approach the start of BIG BANG (2015.⁷⁵), which is 26 years from the first crack in Marxism 1989 first observed in China followed by the fall of the Berlin Wall within months, ever since the world has been drastically altered economically. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was part of this process. That was not a CIA plot, but the unraveling of the Marxist Era. We should witness dramatic political and economic changes going into 2020.⁰⁵. The bottom of the ECM 2020.⁰⁵ will also be 31.4 years from the start of the fall of Communism that should culminate in the final stages of the collapse of Socialism. This is part of the cause of BIG BANG that will become focused most intensely between 2015.⁷⁵ and 2020.⁰⁵.”

    […] Socialism is making a major play to win the 2020 elections here in the States. We have an obvious coup unfolding against Trump carried out by the CIA, FBI, and NSA. This target is 31.4 years from the START of the fall of Communism. It is the START of this trend in Western Society NOT THE END!!!!!!! The 2020 election in the USA will be the most contentious since the 1960s and we should expect a rise in civil unrest. It will turn into a major political battle at the peak of the next wave – 2024.

    European Banks to be Prohibited from Dealing in Repo?:

    Can money printing just cause the 8.6 yr cycle for instance to extend to say a harmonic of that, 17.2 or 25. 8? […] No. The Repo Crisis is on time. Our forecast for the start of the Liquidity Crisis was after Labor Day in September. The Fed is trying to prevent short-term rates from rising. They are not engaging in Quantitative Easing for the sake of “stimulating” the economy.

    Things are getting bad and the rumor behind the curtain is that European banks will be prohibited from participating in repo for year-end. That is how bad things are getting.

Societalcide


Half of Americans Are Effectively Poor Now. What The?

This is the outcome of collectivized politics and defying the Lord’s warning in 1 Samuel 8 to not depend on an earthly Babylon, defying Jesus’ rebel wisdom and example to render to Caesar only what’s his and to God what is God’s — to walk with nothing from town-to-town and not idol money, surety, nor cling to earthly outcomes.

Daniel Larimer summarizes problems of democracy in Decentralizing Governance. Yet his proposed solution is just technocracy of the 66.6% (“governance would require 2/3 approval”) which devolves as did objective science in the corruption of man-made climate change.

Armstrong blogged The Reality of Crises:

QUESTION: […] My question is this…..what the hell does everyone expect to happen? Here is a short list of everything we know to be corrupt on this planet (you correctly encourage us to think globally): Central bankers, politicians, financial markets, the commodities markets, fiat currencies, the insurance industry, the healthcare industry, automobile loans, mortgages, credit card industry, the education system, unions, lifelong self-serving bureaucrats, and the military industrial complex (I grew up in the US Army, son of a warrant officer during the cold war) […] The system as we know it MUST collapse so that something new, something better, something more trustworthy, can be born. Of this, there is no doubt. It is simply a matter of when. It’s going to hurt. It’s what we deserve.

ANSWER: It all depends on whether the politicians in Europe blink […] politics never works the way people think it does.

If I were to run for president and said, “Vote for me because I just prevented a crisis that you were unaware of and I saved you from losing everything.

Most people would not believe that statement.

Politicians realize they cannot run for office by actually managing the economy or preventing a crisis. They LOVE a crisis, for then they can say, “Vote for me and I will get the guy that caused your loss.

As a result, I can scream as loud as possible and show them all the data. They will NEVER act to prevent something. Like 9/11. They created Homeland Security stating that various agencies had information and pretended it was not shared. They[TPTB] destroyed [the WTC] buildings [c.f. also Plane Flyover; Explosives Planted Inside The Pentagon] because they gained so much power because of 9/11. There was Project Northwoods that revealed how these people would kill American citizens and blame it on someone else just to get more power. President Kennedy refused to kill Americans and did not want to go to war, which was probably the real reason he was assassinated.

I replied on Medium:

“It’s easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled.” — Mark Twain

“Telling people what they want to hear, they’ll believe it in an instant no matter what absurd nonsense […] dramatically harder […] realize they were fooled. There’s not just cognitive bias, there’s also personal pride […] you’re telling them he’s a fool. And who wants that?” — on Twitter

Armstrong blogged British Elections are a Warning to Democrats:

[…] our computer has been projecting the decline and fall of [the benefits of] socialism [along with the rise in totalitarianism to fight to uphold it or fight over remaining crumbs in the aftermath]. Moreover, we have pointed out that the Democrats are actually in a long-term protracted bear market and ever since the first election of FDR in the Great Depression, they have been making lower highs and deeper lows. That in market terms is the definition of a bear market. This does not speak well for the Democrats come 2020.

The Democrats are also facing the same potential dangers for they have been moving too far to the left [into the Left Singularity, “no enemies to the left”] of what is very clear, the majority of people are far more moderate[just want government to function well for them with minimum oversight/involvement because most people are busy in their daily lives] […] We have entered a period politically where the longer-term threats to progressive parties are rising both culturally and politically. Indeed, there is a lot of truth to what Oscar II said that everyone is a socialist before 25 because they think with their hearts. Then they graduate and get their first paycheck. If they are still socialists after that, he said they have no head.

Indeed, 57% of Democrats and 51% of young people have a positive view of socialism, according to Gallup polls. That’s has been frightening to many who see this as a class war that will only end in blood in the streets. They never look at how this economic theory has been responsible for more than wars and religion combined […] Already in Britain, the youth have been rioting using the same nonsense chanting “Not My Prime Minister.” We are witnessing the death of Democracy. Either they win, or they refuse to accept the results of an election. The same will be taking place in the United States on a grand scale. If you really want to protect your children, look at the college before you send them. Any such institution engaged in brainwashing your children just refuse […]

Remember China has the “advantage” over democracy that their political system can do long-range planning:

Armstrong blogged Vaccines & Corruption and If Vaccines are Safe Why Did Congress Eliminate Your Right to Sue Pharmaceutical Companies?:

COMMENT #2: […] I’m personally very concerned about the way Democrats seem to purposely conflate the anti-vaccination movement with people who are simply against giving the state the power to enforce mandatory vaccinations. I am not against vaccines, I’m just against the PERVERSE INCENTIVES that come along with government mandated mass vaccination programs […] From my understand the scientific rationale for mandatory vaccination is the theory of “herd immunity”, which argues that as many people as possible need to be vaccinated in order to protect those who can not be vaccinated for medical reasons. I have read criticisms of this theory that argue long term herd immunity can not be artificially induced through vaccinations, but rather only through natural exposure to infectious diseases.

COMMENT #2: Thank you for your blog on vaccines [c.f. also]. Here in California, the pressure to vaccinate is unbelievable. 72 vaccines by 5 years old. Hepatitis C at birth. Children are suffering and fathers are not protecting their children.

REPLY: You will never win the argument debating if vaccines are safe or not. The politicians have been bought and paid for […] by donations from Pharmaceutical Companies. I strongly recommend that switch from the safety to the [political/judicial] corruption […]

I probably had less than 10 vaccines as a kid. There is a risk where children are being subjected to even 70 vaccines that a combination may be lethal to a child even if each separately are ok. This is just too many vaccines and the combinations of 72 possible reactions are off the charts.

People should start filing class-action lawsuits against doctors, schools, and politicians administering vaccines since you cannot sue the companies. They have an obligation to make sure that they are acting in a fiduciary type capacity to exercise their due diligence to ensure that what they are administering is safe […]

New Jersey will probably pass that law today and this will be the confirmation that politics in New Jersey is just too far gone to be a viable state to live in going forward. Just get the hell out. The lives of your children and grandchildren are being threatened by untested drugs protected by politicians. The politicians NO LONGER represent the people – only their own greed.

The United States claims that China is the worst violators of human rights on the planet citing: ““Official repression of the freedoms of speech, religion, movement, association, and assembly of Tibetans in the Tibet autonomous region (TAR) and other Tibetan areas and of Uygurs and other ethnic and religious minorities in Xinjiang worsened and was more severe than in other areas of the country,” according to the 2018 report. Forced vaccines and total immunity for Pharmaceutical Companies does not violate your basic freedom?

C.f. also Measles & 51.6 Year Cycle?, Antibiotics & The End of an Era and Plague Cycle: Moving into Peak 2017-2020.

Armstrong’s prediction for a pandemic has occurred right on schedule, but in pigs: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_swine_fever_virus#Western_Europe

And wild swine are multiplying like rats:

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I'm worried that fractional reserve bitcoin (and others) will cause price suppression. Please refute this if you can...

Tether, Mining Equipment, and legacy Bitcoin

We need to be very wary of finding semi-plausible excuses to feed our fear and then succumb to capitulation panicking by selling the bottom now at maximum fear.

Fractional reserves on exchanges are probably huge, especially on the shady exchanges outside the USA such as Bitfinex. But that is ostensibly part of the bubble that is helping to drive the price to the moon. It’s analogous to selling US dollars and the US stock markets before 2012 because of the overextended fractional reserve system. Timing is as important as (or let’s say a facet of) fundamental rationale.

Importantly for example, refer to my comments and chart about Tether in my recent comment and blog Phoenix rises in 2020; all altcoins (including Bitcoin Core) will be 50+% attacked/destroyed.

$20,000 Bitcoin is now months overdue and thus likely imminent with the Tether market cap having been over 4 million for 4 months:. @filb filb wrote in Current Tether Supply Suggests Bitcoin Price Is Correcting to $20,000:

[…] FilbFilb’s notes that there is an approximately 32-day delay between Tether and Bitcoin’s price action.




(click to zoom)

My hypothesis is that the posited SegWit donations attack if it begins at the halving on May 14, 2020 will wipe out all those shady, unregulated exchanges (and their fractional reserves) thus concentrating the solvent capital of the cryptocosm into the legacy Bitcoin. Or to put it another way, those fractional reserves will become worth-much-less, i.e. price suppression achieved for them. Whilst the non-fractional reserves legacy Bitcoin (which can’t be held on any exchange because all exchanges and even mining pools are polluted with tainted SegWit) will be correctly valued beyond the moon towards Pluto.

Also remember that the tangible mass of Bitcoin can’t be fractional reserves. The mining equipment isn’t going to go “proof it’s gone”. All that capital gets focused into legacy Bitcoin at the halving event if my conjecture is correct.

The floodgates (e.g. Bakkt, etc) are starting to open recently on institutional money entering the impostor Bitcoin Core. The ostensible plan of TPTB is to onboard a shitload of institutional money before the May 2020 halving to drive the investment in tangible mining equipment to insane levels. Then SegWit attack and force all the miners to mine tainted SegWit donations to maximize profits which I posit will catapult legacy Bitcoin prices to Pluto. This then turns all the miners into criminals for the future fleecing by the FATF.

It’s a masterful, diabolical plan.

To keep up with the banksters, you have to think like a banker mafia/oligarchy. Try to think how to maximize the fleecing of the most people.

The exchanges aren’t in control of the masterplan. The creator of Bitcoin has somethings up their sleeves which I posit I have been revealing in my recent blogging activity.

I was really hoping that we would move to $1,000,000 bitcoin in two market cycles instead of one big one.

But... it looks, indeed, like we are going to have one BIG ONE.

There is one way that we won't reach $1,000,000 bitcoin.
That everyone's money disappears.
All the liquidity dried up. Bank money is gone. All that is left is the cash floating around.
It is hard to ponder a hard break like this, but it could really happen.
Just like all the doomsayers say that you could lose your bitcoin because the internet goes down, we could far more easily lose all of our digital bank money at the flip of a switch.

I know from reading Martin Armstrong, that it has never happened in the 3000+ year recorded history of mankind that the entire world simultaneously went into hyperinflation or a Dark Age (where barter/food becomes money).

Will not happen. TPTB created the Internet for their “666” (66.6% stable majority political enslavement) control grid.

We all need to stop being a plebs deer-in-the-headlights by imagining UFOs and keep our eyes on the reality that no one wants to admit to themselves. Even Armstrong is now finally admitting publicly that 9/11 was a false-flag.

Nobody wants to believe we are actually sheepeople managed by a global cabal. Who do you think created Bitcoin? Not Paul Calder Le Roux! Bitcoin is an amazing complex invention not just technologically but also because as we are learning from my recent blogs, there was ostensibly incredibly complex interdisciplinary planning, modeling, game theory, political-economics, ongoing monitoring, ongoing surreptitious organization (of Bitfinex/Tether for example), etc..

P.S. Re-read my blog. I added a lot since most of you first read it.

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The Bitcoin Halvening is happening

I think I discovered the source of the rampant use of the term “halvening” instead of ‘halving’ to describe the 50% decrease in Bitcoin minted block rewards every four (4) years:

For the rest of 2019 and first half of 2020, bitcoiners anxiously await to see if the consensus comes true. In the words of Mr. Tepper regarding the 2016 bitcoin halving, Fitz said, “It's Halvening!!!”

I will eat anything you want for an 80,000 bitcoin sir! :)

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