Bitcoin (BTC) Morning Update: Don't Confuse the Trees for the Forest
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SUMMARY
Bitcoin (BTC) overnight price action shows it to be below the Neck Line. IF this count continues, a brief rise for white wave 2 of C is expected. This pathway is not calling for a lower low but a wave an ABC retracement.
The target is set to the 0.786 Fib zone as the minimum travel for the H&S shows $7,670; beyond the 0.618 Fib level.
I'm keeping an eye on this wedge pattern as well; given how BTC has the trait to form these repeatedly. IF a breakout occurs, then the wedge could serve as the wave 2 and no travel towards the 0.786 Fib level would be required.
The wedge would still deliver a 0.5 Fib level retracement which is a common retracement zone.
Meanwhile, teh larger Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern is still in play and has not been invalidated. I've angled the Neck Line to reflect the fractal with the smaller inverted H&S that was completed.
The video has more details on this; but here is the Cycle degree of trend for Bitcoin showing that from the genesis to about $20k; it was wave 1 and the current correction is fulfilling the role of the wave 2 correction. What comes after wave 2? Wave 3 and the distance it can travel will be jaw dropping and the speed at which it can deliver such 5x, 10x, 20x; 30x; 40x rates of rise will be a sight to behold. So, what matter does it make if Bitcoin makes a lower low? Of Bitcoin, at such levels I would be an aggressive buyer!
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BTC is floundering. Perhaps the novelty is wearing off.
The three, forest, triangles, lines, legal mumbo jumbo, wave 1,2,3,4,5, lower lows, head & shoulders, dandruff...
I really do miss your Chalice of Wealth and destination $23,000 titles! 😉
Take a look to the bearish count:
It seems like a falling wedge with an ABCDE correction
Image is too small, what's that price target you've got there at the bottom?
$4300-4500. Right click and open image in a new tab to see the fullscreen image.
I personally know about a hundred people who're waiting for exactly that ;)
http://t.me/BitcoinMining_Bot?start=399044302
@haejin ...i think this is not the right time to make profit with bitcoin.... As it is evident from past months the value of bitcoin is fluctuating rapidly... Lets wait till the value stablizes a bit to make the actual profit...
Kindly give some suggestions regarding same...
Price fluctuations are precisely why you can make money from Bitcoin. What you need is to keep a chunk of your portfolio liquid. That way you will be in a position to buy the lows and sell when btc is up.
I personally hate trading bear markets, sometimes you wipe out a week's worth of trading gains with a single jaw-dropping fall at the wrong time. I much prefer trading on the fluctuations of a sideways or uptrend market.
Fair enough and personally i didn't try trading the B wave in this particular correction as it didn't really look likely to be worth the risk - as you've said you could lose a big chunk of cash. Lets see what happens once we get down towards 8k. I've got a feeling it'll be a slow next few days
Nice point sir
@talesfrmthecrypt ..thanks for your suggestion.. i appreciate you
I'm with you on this, I don't like trading highly volatile bear markets; sudden drops can cause head-spinning losses. I prefer to wait.
Here is my take on where I will be buying in, please let me know what you think!
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@waygreenergrass/bitcoin-price-trend-analysis-possible-support-targets
Yeahhhh ...@waygreenergrass ... Atleast someone is with me...thankyou sir for your opinion...kindly stay in touch in future too...
Bitcoin is up n down with big swings lately, it defies all ta lately. Lol
Bitcoin is a beast, the more studying i do the more i realise that after each of Bitcoins corrections it took a years to sort out, of course there is lighting etc on the horizon but this could last another few months.
Could be. Also could be that we're entering a new phase for the young asset, as black market investors are chased out by the IRS taking notice of bitcoin and being replaced by institutional investors.
The level of corporate interest in these coins has increased dramatically over the last six months. Big corporations take at least a few months to make big plans. Maybe it'll be a long wait, but maybe they will be racing each other to get integrated with the blockchain.
Big corporations like pension funds will never dive into bitcoin. First of all they would never put 30 miljon through a Bittrex, Binance or whatever account.
Second of all, if they loose money on the original stockmarket, it's all in the game. Losing money with cryptocurrency for them is like loosing their face!
I don't mean corporate investors, although they are also gearing up for buying cryptocurrencies, and GDAX is working hard to be the first to have a platform that hedge funds can operate.
https://support.gdax.com/customer/en/portal/articles/2545568-documentation-requirements-for-institutional-investors
What I meant is that corporations are making a lot more partnerships and plans to use various cryptocurrencies as media of transfer, not as investments. Governments are also eyeing blockchain technology for cost reduction.
Those implementations have not occurred yet, but we hear many companies announcing plans with excitement.
Finally, right now the dollar is doing well. The Euro is doing well. That is, they were recently on the verge of total and utter collapse and financial ruin of the world, but they have moved away from that crisis point. When will that crisis push its way again through the smoke and mirrors of the central banks?
The impact on the cryptocurrency markets this time around could be exponentially larger than in the past due to greater public exposure, and ease of access, and security, than in past years.
All this is to say that although I'm waiting out the bottom of the market still to buy back in, I won't wait long, because these shifts I mentioned could just as easily be next month as next year.
Hahaha awesome!
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@waygreenergrass/bitcoin-price-trend-analysis-possible-support-targets
I don't think it's that unpredictable on the big scale.
Ive made some good profits on trading bitcoin lately. Thanks for your charts!
We all owe @haejin a lot for his clues and guides. You are only among the few who openly acknowledge such immense gratitude. Thanks, and Cheers! I am following you.
Good analysis!
Mine is a little different. What do you think about that we're in the 4th subwave right now and preparing for the last 5th wave before a smaller correction? My take is that we're doing an 3-3-5 ABC, and currently in B wave.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@benkalashnikov/3qtcuo-bitcoin-btc-analysis-update
Hey guys i would be really interested on what the community overall thinks of the market right now ! Does it look like it will go up or do you think it will go down? Would love to know what you think just comment with down or up please! :)
Institutions, regulations and the right mix between FUD and measured encouragement have hypnotized the sheeple (you, me) into a sedate investment pattern. Price these days isn't really that volatile anymore, the rises and falls get determined by bots.
There will be regular-surprising dips to make the chickens panic and take their money, but on the whole we will be watching a slow ascent towards 20k in late May/early June and about 30 in October, maybe 35 at Christmas. If you want to earn money fast, try alts or day-trade. otherwise hodl.
Business insiders have opined that in their opinion, the crypto market has been successfully defused. Dumb money (millions of inexperienced little investors, most smartphone users from third world countries) have learned that it's not them who are making the market, it's them who pay.
With charts going down or sideways very frequently, that is two thirds of the time, little investors are bound to lose, so their interest is waning.
They are now mass-withdrawing from the market, understanding that "get rich quick" is no longer an option.
Skyrocketing cryptos will be a rare high-risk exception, and only insiders to a pump can profit from them.
Therefore, little investors will be either sending their money back to their bank accounts, where it can have real-life use, or trying to play the forex markets.
Crypto, from now on, will be in the hands of the very people it was designed to ward off : the money industry.
If you watch the crypto charts with hindsight these days, you cannot overlook that the regular, mechanical action there is mostly being caused by the market makers' trading bots, with occasional pumps and dumps to shoot off stop losses and sell orders of the remaining, clueless human operators.
Deal with it or keep listening to the massive steemit prophets, and quit your job as it will be a 24/7 affair.
Firstly you have a point there but i doubt that all the bots in the world are linked together and move money the same way to manipulate the prie in a way that is somehow relevant i think that the wales are moving the price more than the bots.
Bots are programmed a lot alike, their users can adjust them - and he users are often whales ;)
What does it matter whether it's bots operated by humans or humans themselves? As long as they keep buying higher than I did, I'll be very happy.
You will find that bots are way faster than you, but also that they have no emotions, and TA is built on human emotions. A market made up exclusively by bots might simply go sideways forever, having ups and downs of 500+ or minus where everybody would buy and sell, buy and sell... that wouldn't be bad.
The danger lies in that they are programmable and that their masters will sometimes take the rudder, and especially when normal users do what can be expected of normal users, like place their stop losses where all the massive prophets tell them to place their stop losses.
In such a case a low will suddenly dip way past your stop loss, trigger it, go way lower than anyone could expect and then shoot up again before anyone has time to place an order, or they will suddenly shoot high up to trigger a pocket of buy orders, which makes the rate rise even higher, then the humans who like to buy green will jump in to ride the spike, which will then magically turn red and eat all their gains... this is how the combo of bots and institutional investors can damage you.
Algos basically NEVER buy higher than you do, but they may buy every low, which you can't.
You're talking about a much shorter time-frame than I am. I'm not stupid enough to try to beat bots at day-trading! The bot version of me would obviously win, even if I were the best human trader in the world.
However, just because the micro-term is dominated by bots doesn't mean that you can't beat the market by expanding into a wider time frame where lightning fast orders lose their advantage. Algorithms have limitations, and many bots lose money, because of the bigger trends. Who are they losing money to? Well, to those of us playing a longer game than their algorithms are designed to comprehend.
91% of traders lose money when they trade.
If you're saying that you'll just hodl, that is okay with me.
You just need strong nerves in case you bought BTC at below 9k and watched it rise to 19k and now it's down at nine with a further dip straight ahead, more nerve if you bought above - and even if you have the nerve you still also need to afford the time, many months.
Ideally, you should already be rich when you start to trade.
Much better psychological base.
hodl? Too late, I already sold above 14 and bought again at 8 and sold again at 11. That's what I mean by "not short-term." Day trading is too volatile and fast for human hands, but week-trading and month-trading are a little more predictable.
Really though I prefer when the market is up and I can just go with BTC/Altcoin pairs and watch my portfolio grow no matter what trade I make, haha. Dollar/BTC pairs in a down market is stressful, you're right it helps that I already own my house, I can just easily watch my portfolio tank and not even notice an impact on my life.
Seems we're all having the same problem, and getting wiser ;)
Both!
I think it will take a while before bitcion stabilizes on double figures. I am not good at crypto prediction, but it is my honest opinion that it may take us to around July this years to hit above 15K. I like to be optmistic, and to tell myself that the value will rise sooner than later, but i am also not blind to the fact that the current drop is the second in just about two months. So it is a really unpredictable time.
" I am not good at crypto prediction"..............join the club, nobody is!
Ask yourself how likely it is that new demand will enter the picture - whether that be from individuals in developing nations as is often possited as a growth driver, or the potential for 'institutional money'. If you think there will be buyers to outstrip suppy then the price will increase. If not.....
Don't forget that available supply also matters. The vast majority of supply is held by just a few individuals, and the way they decide to sell or hold effectively determines the available supply. If they hoard, prices rise. If they dump, prices fall.
Until they have unloaded a lot more of their stakes, we would need to see orders of magnitude of shifts in demand to offset the whales' potential for supply manipulation.
Down, here's why:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@waygreenergrass/bitcoin-price-trend-analysis-possible-support-targets
Hard for many to see the forests when they want that release of dopamine from price rising so bad
Haejin i seen this today from another technical analysist in the game as long as you. Its hard to accept but it makes a lot of sense. When i first seen it i was thinking no way but the more i studied it the more it made sense.
That this correction could take months if not years to calm down.
On the positive side, it does mean that we can fill our bags so in the coming years when bitcoin rises again the next waves of multi millionaires will be us your followers, as you are clearly rich already...lol
Would like your professional opinion, please. Thank you.
Interesting chart. Unfortunately meaningless to me.
I liked the part about millionaires. 🙌
Hiya, can you share a link to that technician please? Ta!
We had that scenario several times already, weeks ago - you can find it among the posts at my profile
Finaly someone who is thinking my thoughts.