Hello reader! Please remember that everything in here is the opinion of a self-taught guy on the internet who has beaten the market a little bit for a relatively short period of time. This is not financial advice.
If you tuned in last time:
you'll recall that I said that prices would need to close above the resistance line for me to believe with certainty that we were truly in the beginning of a new bull market. That didn't happen. Currently, I am divided about whether the market is truly in recovery or still flailing in decline, although I'm skewed toward anticipating decline in my positions.
I'm not sure what to expect right now. I think it is worth noting that this markdown period has been characterized by three major periods of rapid decline, punctuated by either rising or stable price. Also note that the slope of incline or decline has been mellowing out over time. So, I'm not sure whether to expect rapid drops or slow bleeding out. Because I'm not sure about that, I don't like day-trading. The extreme volatility of a bear market can leave you with massive losses if you buy at the wrong moment, whereas if you just wait you almost certainly see gains.
In either case, I am expecting a decline. I have not ruled out the possibility of a major bullish breakout, but I would be somewhat surprised, unless it were news-driven. From where we are right now, for me to believe the bull market had truly begun, prices would have to close above 11k tomorrow on high volume, and they would have to surpass 11.3k (the previous local max) before dipping again, and not dip below the current resistance line. If all those conditions are met, then I would immediately put everything back into the market at the first good opportunity. If those conditions are not ALL met (and probably a few others I'd need to see the situation to name), then I will continue to hold out with much of my stake awaiting certain buy targets. Of course, the resistance line gets lower and lower over time, so even if prices trade sideways long enough (like, for a week), the resistance line would move below price on its own, and I also would believe the bear market had ended and start looking for good immediate buying opportunities. My point is, very unlikely things would have to happen for me to be convinced a new bull run had started already. So I'm waiting to buy.
My buy targets are based on historic critical points.
The first target on my order book is 7850 (on bittrex. Note that prices differ across exchanges, and you must factor that in when using analysis from one exchange to set orders on another). 7850 because that is where it peaked and then plateaued before the insane run in November, and where it bounced briefly on its way down to 6k. Also, when I mention a target, know that I put a spread of orders above and below it. I don't just put it all right on the target.
My next target is 5950, obviously because that was the latest low, and also because it was a plateau on the way to 8k and a local minimum on the first bounce down from 8k.
My next target is 5k. This was a major local maximum last year, and a significant support line after 6k was reached, and it is a very strong psychological number.
My final target is 3k, and I am saving less for it than the others. I have only the slightest belief that prices could drop below 5k, but if they do, this would be my final point of entry.
Maybe you're not as pessimistic as me, and you believe the bull run lead-up to 11.3k was a true breakout, and you want some buy targets that are a little more bullish. I can respect that opinion. Okay, here is what I would do if I were you: First, I would buy some immediately. Then, the fibonacci levels from the bottom of the trough to the top of the run show prices bouncing on the 38% first support level. I'd set some more orders there, that's about 9600.
Then the 50% support level is about 8900, that's got good odds of being where we'll bounce next if we go much below 9600.
The 62% level is at about 8200. That's just a little bit above my first target, anyway. But wait, I thought you were optimistic?
And then, your last target would be the most recent trough, of course, 5900. So, again, that's my second target. You must not be too bullish after all if you're down here with me!
I hope you enjoyed listening to my thought process as I explained why I am very uncertain about everything! I will be mostly just waiting and watching for a good historic price or when something happens to give me more confidence. What do you all think? Please let me know in the comments, and thank you for reading!