Bitcoin (BTC) Evening Update: A Directional Resolution is Needed

in #bitcoin3 years ago (edited)

SUMMARY

Bitcoin (BTC) is still within the boundaries of the symmetrical triangle. The bottom support line of the triangle is holding. This remains as my primary count as shown in the below chart. IF the a,bc,d,e waves of the triangle is still in play, then wave d and e remains next. The price and MACD are diverging where price is making higher highs and the MACD is making lower lows. This is called a positive divergence.

Here is a closer look for MACD. It is hitting an all time LOW!! The red circle area is showing that the daily MACD is at an all time low and yet the price is making higher lows. This level of positive divergence is not usually indicative of a crash scenario. To bring BTC to well below $10,000; MASSIVE amounts of renewed sell pressure needs to surface because the MACD is already oversold from a historical perspective.

My alternate count remains as the a,b,c zig zag correction. Still, the all time low of MACD being able to throw down the price to sub $10,000 or lower will be a daunting task for the sellers.

Legal Disclaimer: This is only my opinion, make of it what you wish. What does this mean? It means it's not advice nor recommendation to either buy or sell anything! It's only meant for use as informative or entertainment purposes.

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Why did you flag a fundraising post for someone who was struggling? Don't get much lower than that ...

Is there anywhere I could see proof of that? I'm not a fan of this guy as it is considering all he does is say every crypto is going to go up in price, every post, not exactly great information. But yeah I would be interested to see that...

Can you provide a link to the flag please?

I'm still waiting to see a big volume spike to indicate a bottom, it should come sooon....I hope.

The correction and me....

giphy-1.gif

Epic. The MAC can go down some more but I'm watching for it to level out... I think we'l be done with correction as the month is nearing its end. The same is true for many other coins

you mean it will last 2 weeks this correction?

Recent bear market lasted over a year. This may not turn around anytime soon!

No, we're all confined to Bitcoin hell forever !
We'll wait and watch till we have lost a third of our money, then withdraw and never come back, so that a) the rate stays low and we can b) tell everybody how we were led by the nose plus c) claim we were right from the beginning !
There's no way out of this without vodka ;))

Jamie Dimon said "The chickens who invest in Bitcoin will pay the price!"
He meant, the price needed to make it smooth going for Morgan Stanley.
So we oblige him of course, it's not that we didn't know that small folk are supposed to do their superior's bidding.

At least if you are correct, fees and transaction times should come down!

For what, Bitcoin ?
Well... I don't know anyone who cares about transaction fees for Bitcoin - when I hold Bitcoin, I hold it at an exchange, I never use it for transactions. If I would hold it for longer, I'd transfer it to a wallet but I haven't seen the need for that these last weeks, I went between alts and fiat and Bitcoin, and whenever I sent funds elsewhere, I used ETH. I honestly dont know anyone who uses Btcoin for transactions, so why would their price be such a decisive factor. Bitcoin is for investment only these days.

It was a joke!
But there is no way I would hold btc on an exchange. Mt gox and several others should demonstrate that’s an easy way to lose the lot. Especially given the crash! Let’s see who survives!!

BTC prediction:

Bitcoin correction is just starting on monthly. At 11,8k now but I expect to see 5k before trend reversing back to bullish after accumulation.

E:Hoping to be wrong. Bitcoin is in totally different place now as it has been in earlier but we have been going up for a long time. Bear market is as natural as Bullish. If you just plan to hold, cost averaging is a good plan. No need to check the charts, just buy some every now and then.

I can see how you're the leading authority about everything on this network, so I guess that means bitcoin is out of business for many months now.
Till after "accumulation," of course. What do you say, should we all invest in Bitcoin Cash, because of the marvellous technology it offers, and its great future ?

Quite defensive reply. Top is clearly in. Just pulling your leg.

I'm not leading authority, just a dude pulling predictions out of a hat like haejin, or you, or anyone else. I haven't looked what the charts look for Bitcoin cash so you need to ask Haejin for guidance here.

Don't get me wrong, I hope BTC isn't in for a long bear market. But judging by its past history, what goes up, comes down as well and in crypto the coming down can be brutal hence the "bitcoin is dead" shouts.

Gotcha.
What you need to understand is that humanity is a bubble, "the economy" is us turning the environment into trash and selling the resulting gadgets to itself for intra-species amusement.
This just as a general explanation about what's going on in the "market" - the crypto market is an ideal example for this, people selling each other ideas and as long as they believe in them... believe in Islam and you'll happily go to paradise, for what it's worth.
Believe in Bitcoin, and Bitcoin will rise.

But there's lots of utter amateurs in crypto now, some on borrowed money - they are extremely paranoid and many are probably unable to wrap their minds around what's actually going on...
Though folks like @haejin will deny it, that is a decisive factor, it's THE factor - and the highly deliberate, almost reliable China FUD, the BCH action by The VersTM and talk like yours here are having a destructve influence on the morals of these people, this is why I'm critical towards the attitude, Elliott Waves and the rest of TA or not.
Because all prophecies are sorta self-fullfilling.
This is very satisfying for the doomsayers, as they can point at the results, saying : "See ? I was right "

But I have a solution, and it's really simple - all we need do is kill the batsperson...

So you're trying to hype the prices up? And trying to educate me? Wow. I've been there and I rather not live in that "bubble". Saw what it was pretty fast.

This kind of behavior will just end up making the people you wish to "protect" to lose money. No matter how many times you utter "up up and up", it doesn't matter. People can see the charts and will act accordingly. Joe with 20 dollars doesn't matter much in grand scheme. Smart money does. No amount of chanting together will change their opinion, as they don't care about what hope you're trying to sell to newcomers.
They will make money the same shorting as longing.

When even the mention of possible bear market is hissed at, you can tell what's up.

But to make it all right, btc to moon! Just repeat after me and it'll work.

I like your way of thinking, really, but huuuge amount of money are coming from standard finance, even JP Morgan want put money in, and BTC is first mover (and will upgrade). They want buy cheap so they pump hard and dump slowly to induce huuuge dips. Just my opinion. Hope you are right for the end of the month, my alts are going down/correcting and I hope to see them go up as soon as possible.

BCH seems to form some sort of triangle, so bullish I guess ...

Almost everything is in triangles, all is bullish - it's just the prices that are going down. Who cares about a little detail like that ;))

Thanks @haejin for the update. I would also like to add by noticing the fractals, in the screenshot below. The patterns are near identical, and differ only in scale.

Screen Shot 2018-01-16 at 10.57.46 AM.png

havent noticed this one yet, good job!

Wow, you're good :-)
Now we can even see the dip, I guess it will go up and down one more time with same pattern, will be very funny :-)

TA is rubbish to the best of my knowledge.

Monkeys do better or the same as TA.

Anyway, you want my opinion about Bitcoin? It is old, outdated, technology, that some still speculated in, one day it will begin to go into a serious bear marked. No-one knows when.

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/6dpadt/evidence_that_ta_works/

no we do not want your opinion.

Good, but I will tell you monkeys outperform TA: https://www.automaticfinances.com/monkey-stock-picking/

Your article doesn't prove your point, and is therefore disingenuous propaganda.

I knew it before even clicking it.

Monkey's don't "outperform TA", they outperform mainstream fund managers.

You must be doing real well then

went from $100 august 2016 to $50000 now... what you think is that well???

Like you say any monkey could have made 500 x return over that period. But a monkey who could do proper TA could have done 5000 x over the same period. There are thousands of different systems of doing TA, the vast majority put forward by monkeys and then there is the 1% that actually work like EW. Take a look at the thousands of Analysts that use EW and 99% of them are monkeys who do not understand the principals of EW or just do not have the ability to chart properly. TA done correctly by a technician who understands and applys the principals correctly works 75% of the time plus, which is all the edge you need when trading. TA works its the monkeys applying it that cant.

look at your picture, it is clear who the monkey is.

i think he means it in racist way! like haejin is asian and some racist like to call asians chimps! these persons will get their karma showed up wide up there big asshole!

I guess you are not talking about my comment... all I am saying is that a study with monkeys picking stocks outperformed TA or did the same...

In the end no one knows the future...

so better to buy something of real value to you, like Steem and Steem power and then stop the trading... thats what I do.

hehe glad you liked my picture.

didn't bother to open the link - but this is TA and not stock picking ?
clearly you know the difference ? you do don't you > ? do you ?
you don't - this isn't stock picking or crypto picking but TA
nice pic- bet you pick up all the ladies

I am talking about that TA is rubbish, since it has always been... many studies have proved that ... yet people fall in love in the idea of following TA, since it give them a sense of edge over the market...

I dont think I will succeed to wake people up to this truth, since his TA posts are very popular... so I will just let people be fooled... TA is like gambling

going in blindly Is gambling - when you can study charts and patterns for years and see similar outcomes - then you have a advantage - really not that hard to understand - do your own study , who the heck listens to studys ? dude you are your own study , give it a try , F what you read

segwit, lightning running on testnet.. you might want to keep yourself updated.

and nothing wrong with TA provided by haejin, what are you ranting at? upset about the ongoing pullback? His analysis is very valuable since it teaches you to be aware of several counts so that you can react accordingly and won't suffer any FUD but enjoy the discounts.

"segwit, lightning running on testnet"

Nobody uses Segwit, because it is garbage.

Lightning isn't operational, and it's an off-chain solution, ie not crypto, ie centralized, ie bullshit.

Propaganda much?

lightning is running on testnet, how you would consider it as not operational? I will remind you by the end of Q1-18

You choose Monkeys or Haejin's TA, the result will be the same... https://www.automaticfinances.com/monkey-stock-picking/

or you listen to me: The best crypto in the whole space is STEEM and the best project is EOS.

Add Bitshares... and you have the most powerful basked in the whole market.

Buy those 3 and HOLD (or HODL, like they say in crypto)... and you will win over Haejin's TA and monkeys... fact is that there is nothing new in what Haejin do, TA has been around for ages and have always been rubbish!!

I will keep telling this.

nothing wrong with the picks, I'm bullish on EOS/STEEM/BTS as well and won't argue with you about it.

anyways haejin's analysis provide so much awareness of the possible outcomes which is where you find the real value. many analysis will be stuck in their prediction and are unable to adjust, but not haejin (I've seen many!). he provides several counts and at the end it is a game of probabilities. it helps a ton to be aware of several possible scenarios and it protects you from any kinds of FUD which might lead into some panic sellin or whatever stupid decision. I can only talk for myself but this guy helped me a ton buy calming my mind.

also yes, BTC might be a prototype, and anyway it still has a huge dev team and is the crypto flagship that drives the whole market and opens the gate to the crypto world (and this wont change in the next half year)

I have tested TA and looked into it severel years ago. It never made real sense for me. I understand the concepts but still I couldnt find any evidence that TA outperform holding (or hodling)..

Personally I stopped trading and speculating a lot time ago, now I only buy if I like the fundamental and I can see a strong use case of the drypto.

In the end its only Steem that has that (for me at-least) and where I see EOS and Bitshares having those huge use-cases in the future.

But yes I know many many people speculate in crypt alt coins and bitcoin... its just something I have outgrown.

"segwit, lightning running on testnet" can I laugh... I have heard about those technologies a long time ago, they can't compete will Graphene /which Bitshares, steem and eos is build on", if you ask me.

Also Steem have a real utility, we are using it right now... where as Bitcoin and almost all other ALT coins are "just" money and speculation or bad products.

BTC = gold / LTC =silver /ETH = gas/oil / BCH = cash
Like it or not, it's just the way it is ... for now at least, even if not already used that way ;-)

STEEM is the best coin in the whole market and EOS is thebest project... all other coins are inferior to those!...

So that is why I will outperform most traders buy just buying Steem!

TA is rubbish... check my post on the topic from yesterday.

I've asked your monkeys, but they've never heard about Steem, so sorry mate I have to disappoint you

We need to make a steem monkey... it could outcompete ether Kitties... anyway I am just trying to wake people up to the truth.. TA is rubbish...

The world want to be fooled.. as the saying goes...

I have diversified my investments in top cryptos, but ripple.. your last prediction was so accurate but I missed it by 1 day & I still regret that.

2018 is just a few days old, dont blame yourself and enjoy the ride

Enjoy the ride.. ofcourse.. I have a target of 250k USD.. am not even close.

where are you at now if I may ask?

well in this case I honestly believe you will achieve this goal, just don't get confused by this january low. if you track the btc price you will notice that january usually is the ATL of an upcoming year.

I'm in a similiar situation and I'm very confident to achieve my goals for this year (also made a little portfolio check with haejin who believes the same).

Best of luck and a successful 2018!

thanks.. you too.. I wanted my goal achieved bit faster.. well.. lets see



@Haejin: Furthermore to my post from the last three days. There is a breakout from the Triangle. It can go down to the next support area near $ 8500,- to 8000,-!

Bildschirmfoto 2018-01-16 um 06.22.49.png

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@vonbuelo/bitcoin-btc-elliot-waves-bull-cycle

https://steemit.com/btc/@vonbuelo/comparing-btc-sell-offs-and-what-to-expect-now

Anything is possible and if you watch the video, that is an alternate count. Personally I believe that it is highly unlikely and the correction is an ABCDE triangular correction. Keep up the posts though you should be right and haejin wrong on 1 in every 5 of his predictions and then you will be able to pat yourself on the back for being a good analyst.

Maybe you misunderstood my post a bit. I don't want to blame Haejin here. My goal is to present and to discuss different alternatives. It's like Haejin often says in his videos: TA is a game of possibilities. So, stay calm. P.S. I had studied economics and have been working in asset management since 2001. I really don't need someone else feedback to know my skills. ;-)

I wont say any more. Your last couple of sentences say it all. Now that I know your credentials, I will definitely take your TA with a pinch of salt.

With your statements I will take your TA skills with a pinch of salt. vonbuelo is correct

You are right to take my TA with a pinch of salt. I am not an analyst. I play around for my own amusement.

we are all aware of this count since it is what haejin is projecting for a while already as an alternate count

except for TA wont help you if you dont read up on news. all this news (real and fake) going around caused the panic sell. TA is great as a supporting tool but it sure as hell just lost people a lot of money

When you use images like the falling btc, I know that you want to create fud and that is it. Take the emotions out of your TA if you want to be taken seriously,just my 2 cents

You're welcome. Thanks for your feedback!

Hoping for a big pickup soon. Sub 10K scares me.

()

We should always listen to what Mouse says, we've been living in a #mouseutopia for decades now.

Cute little mousy knows what he is talking about, lol!

What ?! $1,000,000 by 2020 !!!!!!!!

But I heard they predict a loaf of bread will cost $100,000 btc by 2020, so I am depressed, must go sell all my alts so I can pay rent one more month, boo hoo.

I thought that was the definition of a Negative divergence !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! What the hell!

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/what-is-positivenegative-divergence/

Now this is a valuable lesson to all that you should never ever trust anybody else`s judgement blindly. Market was screaming out loud that it is turning Bearish.

Not for more than one month, even less ...

Hopefully other coins find their footing when BTC drops a little. It seems alt coins are following BTC’s pattern of shooting up and then correcting and moving sideways and slightly down. But i hope alts break out of this trend soon. They saw huge gains and now those gains are being lost not to sellers. People should be buying these things. Especially at the lows they are reaching recently compared to their all time highs. A lot are down 50%

It’ll keep going down as long as BTC keeps going down. Don’t think alts will go to the moon (or remain stable) if BTC crashes.

If Alts ever want to rival BTC they need to go up when BTC drops. They need to get enough trust that people will hold their money in them not BTC

This won’t happen during a crash (or correction) but gradually, over time, when things are more stable. Though, knowing that every single coin is paired with BTC... Good luck to make alts become more independent... Won’t happen overnight.

I’m not saying it will happen over night. Just that it needs to happen. If alt coins depends on the rise of BTC, Then that defeats the purpose. That means the technology they bring is useless since it only goes up with BTC rises. They need to become independent to have higher success

I don’t disagree but the fact that they’re paired with BTC makes it complicated to change. We’d all be happy if it changed but realistically we’d either need BTC to drop so low that it becomes “irrelevant” or (many) more trading pairs with FIAT.

True. Or for a coin to pass BTC by a long shot and be sustained at that growth. Which may not happen soon, though coins are getting closer

Bitcoin itself is paired with USD, so why the f... do we pair Alts with Bitcoin instead of USD? Bitcoin is nice but an old man compared to some reasonable Alts. For me it is like MySpace or Altavista, still here to stay but it is not the finl crypto answer.

But most people who buy alcoins have to buy them using BTC, so every time someone decides to deposit more to buy altcoins, BTC will be bought, so the prices are closely tied together.

but if BTC is falling you may decide to change some of your position to other altcoin

I would be changing this positions today and tmrw if everything keeps dropping. I believe alt coins will yield great profits when they see and upswing in the near future. Everything ran up hard recently, its just cooling down.but just as huge gains weren’t sustainable, huge drops aren’t sustainable. So we will see some profits gained back shortly

Means they are in phase, good things knowing BTC will go on a rally in less than a month ;-)

If the MACD reached 2500 doesnt that also indicate a snap back to the 0 mark? Why only does it act as an elastic band when it goes below 0. Instead you were predicting it to go higher and higher at MACD levels of 2500. It’s fine to predict prices going up and up in a bullmarket but predicting when it will go down is more important. It’s painful for so many when u call for higher highs and people get in only for everything to be slammed.

The govts controlling crypto through FUD while they figure out how to regulate . Gold's creeping up which is not a good sign for equities and cryptos. We can't just look at analysing cryptos.

gracias por la informacion

seguramente te estaras agarrando la cabeza ahora mismo jaja

hope BTC not to crash.. please..

lol you sure now?

Gracias por tu análisis

I think that the negative news also accelerated the fall.

Thanks!
I needed this!
Was so depressed, my portfolio was down for almost 60% because of bad investments.

Bitcoin crashes, my portfolio dies. Oh what a feeling, buying ba-hack again.

damn that was the best port ever.
I needed that support

It has been interesting keeping an eye on Bitcoin for the last months. Everyone is waiting for something to happen, it might just be something big that kicks it back into action.

That is looking worse and worse day after day. I know that the chart doesn’t show an immediate crash but it looks like it is where we are headed, people are getting scared and money isn’t coming for that reason. The market is losing tons of money day by day.

The chart does not show a crash at all. It shows a healthy correction. 2 months ago people were not even dreaming of a price this high. Every thing in perspective.

Well, have fun there!

Excellent analysis as always haejin...cheers friend

Altcoins getting killed today. XVG hurts real bad.

XVG is going to hit rock bottom. Just the beginning. It’s not dying, just getting its youth back.

Well thats terrible news. Also, completely different to Haejin’s call. He said $0.70 next target.

He doesn’t predict time. He always repeats it. Though understand that the chart has changed since his last update on Verge. Market has been red for days now.

My thoughts on Verge:

Or alternate:

or vs. BTC:

I'm curious about your A-B-C-D-E lines. Is it suppose to form a triangle correction ? Cause each are perfectly horizontale and parralele to the other, not really looking like a triangle.

The bottom of wave 4 can’t be below the top of wave 1. I had an earlier problem with Haejin’s XVG analysis. He seemed to have counted waves with those two crossing. Same on zcash. His chart had wave 1 and wave 4 crossing.

Also, given he doesn’t predict time, I understand. But his counts and targets clearly need to be revised if they are using projections from prices and projected waves which have not materialised. Eg if he projected a target using a wave 2 which has in fact gone lower than when he did the analysis.

Everything's gone much lower since then. All TAs need to be updated and are irrelevant as long as we can't define which way BTC is going. BTC is the weather forecast.

The mark of a truly skilled analyst is to be able to predict when to get out. Rather than call for higher highs just as price plummets. Id say thats the opposite of what was predicted

How do you post so many videos a day?

it takes 10 minutes for him to do it.

I know and he does it like 10 times a day. That is a lot of money. I almost have a feeling he paid the whale that is upvoting him.

`with all that money he should have a team by now

he clearly records all the videos on his own, what team does he need? for some crazy video editing or what? :-)

I hope this correction is better. The last time it boosted way too fast, thus the quick crash. Lets hope overnight goes well for all of us!

A correction like earlier in 2017 is exactly what i was hoping not to get stuck in. But with Haejin calling for imminent larger trend wave 3s it didn’t seem wise to get out.

@haejin
Could you please provide an updated count on ETH?

https://www.coinigy.com/s/i/5a5d84f139564/

Thanks

We had the same shit 1 year ago, so this is shopping time :) It is not a bloodbath ...remember 2017
https://twitter.com/Digi_Thor/status/952514902433951744

I would not want the price of Bitcoin to go below $10,000 but if it does, that is buying time, because it has to rise up and some point in time!

This is a good buying time right now. It will be a long time if ever that you see this price again.

👍👍👍👍thanks for sharing

I just resteemed! 🙌

vale vale vale vale como que paso por que las malas calificaciones en este posts me podrian explicar

Thanks for your selfless effort for the community, I allow wonder how you created so much time to analyse the recent happening in the crytocurrency market, You are doing great and your efforts is highly appreciated. Well-done you are doing a wonderful work for all in the Steemit community. Bravo

It is sub 10k now, but don't worry! I'm in it for the long run, together with some other altcoins.

Remeber - What goes down WILL go up. Profits ahead!!

As a matter of fact that sentense has to be the other way around: What goes up must come down. It's nature!

Yes I know the saying. Maybe in the world of Crypto this sentance is the most accurate one: What goes up must come down - so it can go up again! :D

of course it does and thats why you want to be smart and buy the red to increase your gains. play the game correctly

Bitcoin now a barrier triangle heading upwards into D?

This market is ripping me a new one. Effing brutal.

I like your post, visit my account @haejin


Sell! Sell! Sell! Sell! Sell! Sell! Sell! Sell! Sell! Sell! Sell! Sell! Sell! Sell! Sell!

UPDATE PLEASE!!! IS SHIT HITTING THE FAN!?!?!?

it obviously is now

no idea what you guys are talking about. either it goes up soon or it will dip further so I can buy more to increase the profits when it cgoes up later, why panic?

If these guys like to go all apeshit, apeshit they shall go.

For the past week I've been warning the BTC correction is not over. Did BTC trick you? More below:

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@bodaggin/i-warned-btc-correction-wasn-t-over-did-btc-trick-you

if C wave could be 61.8% or 100% or 123.6% of wave A and since Bitcon bounced back at 0.382 then it means that wave C is exactly 61.8% of wave A therefore I believe that this is the end of the correction and Bitcoin will start the uptrend

So how do i learn to read and analyze all these cryptocurrency graphs and charts

These Technical Analysis Books: Elliott Wave Priniciple & Technical Analysis of Stock Trends are highly recommended

Plus, Haejin has some awesome tutorials too! Watch his links at the bottom of the post.

@haejin first of all, let me thank you for all the shared knowledge, you've been incredible to the community!

Just want to point out that the following sentence doesn't seem correct to me:

The price and MACD are diverging where price is making higher highs and the MACD is making lower lows. This is called a positive divergence.

You state "price is making higher highs" but in reality it is either making higher lows or lower highs, isn't that so? Hence the divergence with MACD that is making lower lows while price is making higher lows.

Cheers!

FOR EVERYONE going nuts now its a correction, 3 months ago Bitcoin was half of todays price, HALF. keep everything in perspective, we may all need to be a little patient, do NOT panic sell, IMO that would be a bad move.

Right, we have to panic buy !!!! :-)


My view on EOS

That can’t be the count if the top of wave 1 and bottom of wave 4 cross

https://www.tradingview.com/x/5I3yEyzG/ I wish I had more cash to buy more bitcoin at a lower level.

History repeats itself, i guess this is what happened in Sept - Dec 2017, when to the price went up to approximately 8k then fallen to 3.5k, then up again to almost nearly 20k, now the bitcoin is in a point that it will go higher in price in the few coming months, and might this time cross 35 k by the 3rd quarter of this year.