Bitcoin (BTC) Morning Update: Upper Line of Wedge Breached!!!

in bitcoin •  3 months ago

SUMMARY

Overnight price action has managed to breach the upper line of the wedge! The key now is for price sustain itself above that level and use it as support. Prior resistance zones that get breached become new supports. However, should price decline back into the wedge; there is a potential for a bearish wick formation. Still, that monster daily volume from the prior bottom bull wick was massive! BTC now has the first round of impulse (blue) and is not on its way to complete the second (white i,ii,iii,iv,v). I've raised the white wave iii to reflect 2.618 of wave 1 length. That should bring it to around $9,250 or so. Should the second round of impulse complete; we should be able to call the bottom.

This alternate count shows a shallow finish for the second round of impulse. If so, then the resulting abc will likely use the upper wedge line as support.

Legal Disclaimer: This is only my opinion, make of it what you wish. What does this mean? It means it's not advice nor recommendation to either buy or sell anything! It's only meant for use as informative or entertainment purposes.

Please consider reviewing these Tutorials on:
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Nice! It's been a tough road lately, would be nice to see some green haha

interesting...the chart is well explained

The second round of impulse will likely complete.

I think that the bottom is in...for now. I think it might turn into a bull trap and get sent down one more time after 12k or so...Let's see what happens!

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At around 12k or so; that could potentially be the B wave and then C wave down to $3,800 or so.

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감사합니다^^

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Just in time for my tax refund to show up in my bank account:)

I always amazed to see your observation and analysis.Whenever i see your post i started to match with the current scenario,most of the time i found you right.Now crypto market is coming back i think,bitcoin is now crossed 8k mark,now that's a good sign.I always follow your post to learn some useful lesson.Any body can take your advice and i can assure him that he or she will not be a looser.Thank's for such informative post.@upvoted

Thx for TA!
If anyone want some free coins via airdrops check my blog :) Have nice day

Okay we're fine.tumblr_li2zngnqgW1qzmowao1_500.jpg

Many many thanks for you
again thanks for sharing

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Yes, THANK YOU Haejin. So many here complain when you are doing everyone a service. It's not often enough we say THANK YOU. Your TA is always appreciated and respected.

I wonder if binance being down woth maintenence for 16 hours (one of the biggest exchanges in the world) will hurt this attempt to burst out of the wedge? I guess this chart is for bitstamp but Binance being down at such a crucial time can not be helping our chances right?

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Didnt know you could buy straight from fiat on binance?

Thanks for the awesome analysis again Haejin. Come on BTC keep above that line and get moving upwards.

Buenas Noticias, estimado...es dinámica la Economía del cripto mundo..
Gracias por esos análisis.

thanks for appreciate

anyone else seeing bullflag in bitstamp BTC chart? This might be the impulse we've been sweating.
C'mon BTC we need maaasssive pwwoofffittss!

Thank you! Very helpful!

thanks *100!!

Video doesnt play

@haejin, for the life of me I cannot seem to draw the triangle to match yours. I've tried bitstamp, bitfinex, gdax, and all are showing price squarely in the middle of the triangle when the top line touches the tops of the B and D waves. I also keep having the apex come up 8 - 10 days sooner than yours. Are you doing something you're not telling us about here? Thanks

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I think it is just the short time support. I've drawn the support lines as follows. I always look on Bittrex, but included also a Bitstamp chart. Personally I think the bottom is not in yet, because some alt coins need a lower low and would have to stop being in sync with BTC. For example XVG/USDT failed to produce a valid count for an impulse and creeps along the upper support line.1.png2.png

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July and Sept corrections has BTC turn up first while Alts were sideways or still putting in newer lows.

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Thanks for your reply. I was not aware of that. I did not check out the former corrections yet, but will have a look. For now I only trade alt coins, so this is something to keep in mind.
Btw: Your post on your portfolio made me overthink my strategy. I will try to adapt by diversifying more into main coins, which gives me buying power for BTC or ETH pairs. If BTC drops one more time I'll change now, if not after the first alt impulses.

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Not at all. I use Bitstamp; daily or 4 our chart.

I am very happy to belong to this steermit family, I will give you my vote, give me your vote.

I know your primary wave yesterday was that $BTC will go down one more time. Is this still your view? or is this now your primary wave? thanks.

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That's still my primary count; one more lower low. Until we get a decisivey breach of top line.

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Is that the more bullish scenario? One more downturn means a stronger breakout is more likely?

Just curious. Do we also need ladder out when we sell? I heard so many emphasis on buy ladders but never heard of sell ladder.

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It is a good idea. Ladder in, ladder out.

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Just wait 'til that bull market comes back. You will hear lots of emphasis on sell ladders then :D

Some people have itchy hands and like to day trade and others are more patient and like to make long term investments and hodl coins. I'm curious to know what kind of trader you guys are and if you believe that your trading style fits your personality?

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I have 70% of portfolio put aside as HODL; I trade 30%
That way, I have both at same time. There are times when HODL also beats my Trade portfolio.

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Thank you for that honest statement. It makes you more human:)

Thanks again for you great work!

@haejin As I've counted my waves, I've noticed that sometimes Wave 4 crosses into the territory of Wave 1 with Bitcoin and altcoins, which breaks one of the Elliott Wave rules. I'm wondering, is that because we're still in the early stages of the crypto markets? I.e., it's because of the imperfect gauge we're using to measure sentiment (price in an immature market), but the Elliott rule still stands? The Dow, for example, is a mature market, so the rules are much more apparent. Just wondering if you've seen that, and if you either redo your count or allow for some minor deviation from the rule.

Really do appreciate this review. I have an idea on what to expect now

Nice TA! I hope BTC holds the $8600 barrier!

Jeej! good news (almost)

love the analysis man. keep it up. much appreciated.

I'll always follow good news! Nice work.

If there is a candlestick close below MA 5/10 low and Middle BB (Cadlestick direction),
Then the price will go up to MA 5/10 High
Then down to Low BB

But if the candlestick close above the 5/10 High High, Possible Price will rise to upper BB :)
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@akb47/bitcoin-analysis-with-bbma-10-february-2018

tvc_9418eb99e836747c2a95391624e88aad.png

What way are you drawing the wedge? You never zoom out so it is impossible to see. its clearly still inside the triangle. You are a veteran, why are you doing this?

Screen Shot 2018-02-08 at 14.42.13.png

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@martinf. If you have a question, ask nicely. You should not be talking like that, very annoying. Nobody has to give you any information, and you are not entitled to get any. You got that? I find some people here are very rude, and have nothing substantial to say, that should not be encouraged!

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Couldn't agree with you more. Well said. They should appreciate.

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Same on Bitfinex. Price is a good $1200 from the top trendline.

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I agree, whatever way I draw the triangle, there is no breach in sight.

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Check yesterdays evening update and you will see the complete wedge. The upper line on Haejin's wedge is lower due to the "fake" brakeout at 28.1.2018, that is the reason...

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Thanks, I see that now.

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I'm sorry, but I'll have to disagree on that one because of the subjective nature of where to draw the wedge. And even if this is a breach of the wedge, it should by no means be labelled as a 'breach' as at this point such a small break doesn't mean anything.

EDIT: Also, look at LTC, the wedge is drawn there much more objectively as it hits the tops cleanly since ath. At LTC you can see there is no means of a breach yet.

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But at the same time he said that the apex wasn't until the 24th ... !?!??
I cannot reconcile these two statements no matter how hard I try.

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I was totally confused by where he'd put the top line of the wedge in this video too. Thanks for the clarification, I'll check out last night's video, as this update made no sense to the lines I had drawn.

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The wedge was drawn before the dip outside it, following the support lines. Sometimes he uses wicks, sometimes the candles that's why it looks like that. TA is not an exact science. That is why Haejin draws approximations he thinks are the best for him and uses forward conceptualizing to draw his lines free hand based on years of experiance. If you're trying to put exact sciences to peoples greed and fear than its going to be tough.

You must identify your own patterns and use your own knowledge to give you the best picture, as he does.

Watch all his videos, especially the Fibonacci one, it gives very good detailed insight to why he does what he does and how he does it. If you don't agree, thats fine, you can try your own stab at it.

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He did draw that line but I saw him move it last week after that sideways movement. He must have moved it back.

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I agree it would be nice to see the zoomed out view but he is using Bitstamp and you are using Coinbase. Could that account for the difference? Just asking, I actually focus on Bittrex.