Exchange Transfer Report: 8/28/2016 to 9/3/2016

in stats •  3 years ago 

exchange_transfer_report9fade.png

The Top 50 Accounts Transferring to and from Exchanges

Note: the USD amounts shown here are based on the following rates as of when I ran the report, not an average over the past week:

  • STEEM: $0.80
  • SBD: $0.82

Assumptions

Please see the first report for a detailed explanation of my personal assumptions related to what this data could mean. What it does not show is people powering up, powering down, or if they are buying or selling on an exchange. It's just some interesting data dealing with transfers to and from exchange accounts. For more data on accounts powering up and down, see @liberosist's latest post.

Previous Reports

Exchange Transfer Activity from 08/28/2016 to 09/03/2016

First included transfer: 2016-08-28T00:11:00+00:00
Last included transfer: 2016-09-03T23:44:03+00:00


----------------------------- Exchanges ------------------------------

@poloniex STEEM transfer total: 347,597.718
@poloniex SBD transfer total: 51,567.551
@bittrex STEEM transfer total: -108,044.630
@bittrex SBD transfer total: 9,459.510
@blocktrades STEEM transfer total: -18,930.968
@blocktrades SBD transfer total: 8,968.926
@openledger STEEM transfer total: 2,435.797
@openledger SBD transfer total: 2,730.657

------------------------- Total Transferred --------------------------

Total STEEM transferred: -223,057.917
Total SBD transferred: -72,726.644
Total USD transferred: ($   238,082.18)

--------------------- Withdrawl to Deposit Ratio ---------------------

Accounts withdrawing: 1122
Average withdrawal amount: ($       351.66)
Median withdrawal amount: ($        12.86)

Accounts depositing: 280
Average deposit amount:  $       139.46
Median deposit amount:  $        54.14

Ratio of withdrawals to deposits: 4.01/1

TOP 50 WITHDRAWALS

AccountNet Transfer Amount
1@smooth-c:($ 32,230.80)
2@ned:($ 26,408.08)
3@satoshi-pie:($ 16,781.60)
4@smooth:($ 16,000.00)
5@dantheman:($ 14,010.58)
6@berniesanders:($ 13,600.00)
7@steemed:($ 9,018.33)
8@rainman:($ 8,054.89)
9@msgivings:($ 8,053.95)
10@cloop1:($ 8,000.00)
11@sascha:($ 6,560.00)
12@fuzzyvest:($ 6,512.67)
13@charlieshrem:($ 5,813.36)
14@dollarvigilante:($ 5,062.94)
15@ozchartart:($ 4,641.05)
16@taker:($ 4,621.61)
17@rok-sivante:($ 4,319.96)
18@ericvancewalton:($ 4,312.07)
19@witness.svk:($ 4,026.76)
20@pharesim:($ 4,000.00)
21@hitbtc-payout:($ 3,797.37)
22@on0tole:($ 3,617.84)
23@wayfairer:($ 3,489.90)
24@complexring:($ 3,390.99)
25@allasyummyfood:($ 3,280.82)
26@dragonslayer109:($ 3,280.01)
27@steemapp:($ 3,243.23)
28@lifeisawesome:($ 2,980.13)
29@wackou:($ 2,862.21)
30@steempty:($ 2,728.21)
31@calaber24p:($ 2,669.36)
32@analisa:($ 2,643.07)
33@bitcalm:($ 2,624.82)
34@clayop:($ 2,469.37)
35@btcmsia:($ 2,371.75)
36@brendazambrano:($ 2,307.48)
37@silversteem:($ 2,216.34)
38@steemdrive:($ 2,214.00)
39@drunchpunk:($ 2,182.58)
40@kushed:($ 2,153.84)
41@coldstorage1:($ 2,103.21)
42@dele-puppy:($ 2,068.44)
43@hisnameisolllie:($ 2,030.00)
44@inboundinken:($ 2,013.29)
45@charleshosk:($ 1,939.07)
46@honeyscribe:($ 1,899.10)
47@anastacia:($ 1,889.84)
48@arsahk:($ 1,853.76)
49@amy-goodrich:($ 1,804.00)
50@mrron:($ 1,691.06)

TOP 50 DEPOSITS

AccountNet Transfer Amount
1@riverhead:$ 24,201.87
2@thisvsthis:$ 10,414.55
3@smooth-d:$ 8,200.00
4@hitbtc-exchange:$ 5,877.51
5@renohq:$ 5,412.60
6@tomoaki:$ 4,920.00
7@imadev:$ 4,192.05
8@mika:$ 4,100.00
9@leesunmoo:$ 4,026.88
10@kushed1:$ 3,919.15
11@thecyclist:$ 3,479.99
12@icfiedler:$ 3,300.83
13@ioc:$ 3,208.61
14@derekareith:$ 3,118.95
15@creadordelfuturo:$ 2,922.19
16@inv:$ 2,560.00
17@fufubar1:$ 2,384.01
18@abdullar:$ 2,239.97
19@bacchist:$ 1,928.53
20@jackkang:$ 1,805.57
21@skt:$ 1,762.02
22@xpilar:$ 1,589.69
23@asd91:$ 1,509.67
24@fabio:$ 1,497.13
25@freeforever:$ 1,466.69
26@cyber:$ 1,465.64
27@permacryptofolio:$ 1,310.54
28@jyp:$ 1,256.12
29@neoxian:$ 1,247.86
30@helikopterben:$ 1,205.03
31@tosch:$ 1,200.00
32@enki:$ 1,089.95
33@gomeravibz:$ 1,064.95
34@celsius100:$ 1,000.62
35@cyan91:$ 988.42
36@me-tarzan:$ 983.20
37@jaimeporras:$ 891.44
38@samuel-stone:$ 879.99
39@vip:$ 834.89
40@ramblin-bob:$ 804.61
41@leon-fu:$ 800.27
42@laonie:$ 799.20
43@robrigo:$ 748.66
44@knircky:$ 737.73
45@furion:$ 720.31
46@nxtblg:$ 718.22
47@bonapartist:$ 655.99
48@geoffrey:$ 638.39
49@scaredycatguide:$ 627.98
50@driv3n:$ 617.64

Hourly Breakdown by Exchange

Here are the hourly breakdowns for the past week as interactive graphs. The code I use to get this data is on Github if you want to poke at it yourself.

STEEM


click the image for an interactive graph

SBD


click the image for an interactive graph

USD


click the image for an interactive graph

Commentary

  • The ratio of withdraws to deposits is as high as I've ever seen it since tracking these reports at 4.01/1. Previous values:

    • 3.85/1
    • 3.85/1
    • 3.09/1
    • 3.42/1
  • The total amount going out is still going up at $238,082. That's a lot of money heading to exchanges.

  • Last week's STEEM total: -178,516, this week is -223,058.

  • How low do you think the price will go? Do you think the long-term holders care about the price right now?

LukeStokes01712.png

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Sort Order:  

Woo-hoo! I made the top 50 DEPOSITS. Wait...Am I on the wrong side of this??? haha :-)

Grinding out quality content and investing $. Guess I'm 100% on this train, next station, promised land?

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If there's blood in the water, you're heading the right direction according to Warren Buffett. Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. Who knows where it goes from here? Maybe the question is... is there enough blood in the water yet? How low will it go? No one knows!

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  ·  3 years ago (edited)

The thing is that Warren Buffet always knows what the value is. In the case of steemit only god knows :)

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Valid point @airmike! As of right now the valuation is "good faith" But given the risk/reward scenario I'm down for the gamble. :-)

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@lukestokes, that is indeed a good question. I'm hoping we actually push to the all time opening low so I can buy up some more. But this withdrawal to deposit trend needs to relax at some point.

I just wrote a post inspired by it and linked to your post here https://steemit.com/steemit/@scaredycatguide/real-talk-vol-7-am-i-a-steemit-sucker

Does anybody else see a problem here?

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Depends on which side you're on, what your timescale is, and a whole bunch of things. :)

STEEM has to be distributed for it ever to be valuable to enough people. That's one way to look at this, but unfortunately we're not seeing that same STEEM come back through the exchange to a Steemit account to power up... so yeah. Seems a bit out of balance right now.

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  ·  3 years ago (edited)

This is exactly what I was referring to in my earlier comments on your posts in thinking about what it means when a net flow goes to exchanges. More coins are being held on exchanges not transferred back and powered up. For the most part this means, in the aggregate, more demand from speculators for short term holding. Given Steem system fundamentals this is a positive for SP holders (lower dilution). In time, powering up will become more attractive than powering down and a balance will be reached, but we aren't there yet.

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I wonder though, why hold as STEEM on an exchange and suffer dilution instead of holding SBD in the platform gaining interest? Seems irrational to me, but maybe I'm missing something?

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It's possible that some buyers are unaware of, or don't understand the dilutive nature of STEEM. Casual traders buy and sell tens of different coins depending on what they happen to read on bitcointalk, they just don't have time to learn about them

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@smooth and @lukestokes There is one potential reason.

If you think you can make more trading the markets than you would lose through dilution then it makes sense.

If you have the resources and use bots it can be done (I think) but you would need the STEEM on the exchange due to the trading precision/timing that would be required. I have seen this kind of thing on many other altcoins before.

It is probably one of the main reason large amounts are held on exchanges and why so many people get caught out when there are hacks.

Due to the way these people make money it is not possible for them to proceed whilst keeping their funds locally or offline. They have to have them "live" on the exchange.

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  ·  3 years ago (edited)

@thecryptofiend.

If you think you can make more trading the markets than you would lose through dilution

In a sense you have to be right. People are holding the coins on an exchange believing they can make more than enough from trading to offset the dilution. Whether that is correct or not maybe doesn't even matter. As long as people believe it there is demand to hold coins on an exchange. It will be interesting to see how long this trend continues.

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Very good question! But we can't deny that people are doing it, and the quantity is increasing at a significant rate. Look at the Poloniex chart above. It hardly ever goes negative!

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@thecryptofiend @smooth these are the reasons I bother to put this data together. Thanks fellas. Enjoying the conversation for sure.

Where will STEEM go? I don't know. One thing I do know is after three and a half years of bitcoin pureism, this is the first altcoin I've been really excited about. The world needs a decentralized social media platform built on blockchain technology which directly rewards authors and curators. Will it be Steemit? I hope so. If it is, I think there's a very real possibility the price of STEEM is currently undervalued.

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@smooth I think people's perception of their trading ability is often out of kilter with the reality!

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  ·  3 years ago (edited)

How do you know that STEEM transfers aren't being converted to BTC or ETH?

My guess is that this is occurring quite a bit rather than users transferring STEEM onto exchanges and holding STEEM. This drives down the price of STEEM, and SP derives its value from STEEM. This negative is likely outweighing the positive of lower diltuion for SP holders.

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There are still always buyers for the STEEM, who are apparently keeping it on the exchange in greater and greater quantity rather than transferring it to a Steem platform account and powering it up.

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This analysis by @furion suggests that power ups have almost leveled with power downs. Next week either they will diverge again, or we'll see more balanced withdraws/deposits ratio

Interesting. Reading, watching and leaning.

The next fork should help with Steem supply.

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In what ways? I've heard some talk about strengthening the SBD peg, but I haven't looked into it in great detail yet.

poloniex and bittrex are the main source of exchange yet no other have either seen from the beginning to the date who participate more or near to these two ex changers

Should be included in your list of exchange accounts: @hitbtc-exchange

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Thanks. I'll add it to my list of exchanges. Looks like it's less than a percent of the volume.

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Looks like they have some other accounts too. I've noticed that their withdraws come from hitbtc-payout. I don't know what happens in between.

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Interesting. Now I'm curious if they balance out and if there are transfers between those accounts. Either way, looks like it wouldn't change the numbers in a drastic way being less than 1%.

the good news about it is they have smaller portion of STEEM and VOTES. Which means for us the ppl have bigger impact (not whales) on what is trendy, good etc.

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Can you clarify what you mean? Which "they" are you talking about? The number of votes doesn't determine what trends. It's all about the Steem Power of the voters because that determines the number of VESTS they have which impacts the strength of their vote.

I think long term holders do care very much about the price. It's at dangerously low levels. If the money supply wasn't expanding so rapidly, the market cap would be much smaller and the reward pool would be dismal. I personally think that we aren't far from stress testing the steem dollar peg with very little demand for extremely cheap steem... But I do think it can handle it.

It would be interesting to combine the transfer charts with STEEM price chart (but on a larger timeframe, 2-3 months maybe, to exclude market noise). I wonder if the in/out transfer balance is an accurate price predictor?

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