Exchange Transfer Report: 8/21/2016 to 8/27/2016

in stats •  2 years ago

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The Top 50 Accounts Transferring to and from Exchanges

Note: the USD amounts shown here are based on the following rates as of when I ran the report, not an average over the past week:

  • STEEM: $0.80
  • SBD: $0.92

Assumptions

Please see the first report for a detailed explanation of my personal assumptions related to what this data could mean. What it does not show is people powering up, powering down, or if they are buying or selling on an exchange. It's just some interesting data dealing with transfers to and from exchange accounts.

Previous Reports

Exchange Transfer Activity from 08/21/2016 to 08/27/2016

First included transfer: 2016-08-21T00:00:12+00:00
Last included transfer: 2016-08-27T23:57:15+00:00


----------------------------- Exchanges ------------------------------

@poloniex STEEM transfer total: 253,578.257
@poloniex SBD transfer total: -42,070.098
@bittrex STEEM transfer total: -59,978.681
@bittrex SBD transfer total: 60,373.991
@blocktrades STEEM transfer total: -16,315.629
@blocktrades SBD transfer total: 15,359.972
@openledger STEEM transfer total: 1,232.960
@openledger SBD transfer total: 12,481.897

------------------------- Total Transferred --------------------------

Total STEEM transferred: -178,516.907
Total SBD transferred: -46,145.762
Total USD transferred: ($   185,267.63)

--------------------- Withdrawal to Deposit Ratio ---------------------

Accounts withdrawing: 1148
Average withdrawal amount: ($       360.71)
Median withdrawal amount: ($        11.69)

Accounts depositing: 298
Average deposit amount:  $       199.32
Median deposit amount:  $        95.27

Ratio of withdrawals to deposits: 3.85/1

TOP 50 WITHDRAWALS

AccountNet Transfer Amount
1@berniesanders:($ 16,085.01)
2@abit:($ 16,000.80)
3@val-a:($ 13,600.00)
4@friend5:($ 12,134.82)
5@charlieshrem:($ 10,272.00)
6@imadev:($ 9,200.00)
7@steemed:($ 8,623.72)
8@complexring:($ 8,076.84)
9@dantheman:($ 8,000.00)
10@anyx:($ 7,680.00)
11@ericvancewalton:($ 7,655.83)
12@rainman:($ 7,525.38)
13@btcmsia:($ 5,832.75)
14@falkvinge:($ 5,750.00)
15@dollarvigilante:($ 5,520.00)
16@sirwinchester:($ 5,141.36)
17@shapeshiftio:($ 4,978.65)
18@analisa:($ 4,972.15)
19@fairytalelife:($ 4,600.00)
20@crazymumzysa:($ 4,463.84)
21@rogerkver:($ 4,409.88)
22@summon:($ 4,180.72)
23@jacor:($ 4,083.79)
24@steve-walschot:($ 3,768.72)
25@mughat:($ 3,748.77)
26@jesta:($ 3,681.84)
27@anastacia:($ 3,554.70)
28@smooth-c:($ 3,460.00)
29@steempty:($ 3,375.20)
30@wayfairer:($ 3,351.56)
31@abdul:($ 3,214.57)
32@changelly:($ 3,197.15)
33@qip:($ 3,072.72)
34@faddy:($ 3,060.61)
35@mynameisbrian:($ 2,908.97)
36@wang:($ 2,884.00)
37@susanne:($ 2,760.00)
38@pfunk3:($ 2,758.16)
39@calaber24p:($ 2,697.42)
40@dana-edwards:($ 2,658.80)
41@burmik123:($ 2,517.42)
42@bridgetbunchy:($ 2,494.56)
43@roelandp:($ 2,482.44)
44@arsahk:($ 2,425.88)
45@clayop:($ 2,370.90)
46@jpiper20:($ 2,209.46)
47@heyrhett:($ 2,174.55)
48@silversteem:($ 2,129.81)
49@brunopro:($ 2,116.00)
50@opheliafu:($ 2,112.61)

TOP 50 DEPOSITS

AccountNet Transfer Amount
1@arama:$ 19,313.39
2@smooth-d:$ 16,436.80
3@aurel:$ 12,519.99
4@ramta:$ 8,219.94
5@ashold882015:$ 7,864.95
6@slowwalker:$ 7,192.78
7@renohq:$ 5,728.94
8@mika:$ 5,520.00
9@xiaohui:$ 5,402.34
10@onceuponatime:$ 4,251.26
11@xpilar:$ 4,204.73
12@leesunmoo:$ 4,175.48
13@nextgencrypto:$ 3,899.26
14@fabio:$ 3,822.64
15@skt:$ 3,766.26
16@inchonbitcoin:$ 3,680.00
17@twinner:$ 3,642.89
18@thisvsthis:$ 3,171.08
19@helikopterben:$ 3,019.89
20@samuel-stone:$ 2,880.78
21@asch:$ 2,799.98
22@james-show:$ 2,794.76
23@persianqueen:$ 2,684.77
24@cyber:$ 2,659.33
25@shark:$ 2,613.15
26@eeks:$ 2,396.39
27@laonie:$ 2,396.00
28@liberosist:$ 2,218.48
29@goldenunicorn:$ 1,908.76
30@b0y2k:$ 1,866.50
31@geoffrey:$ 1,834.88
32@joele:$ 1,803.53
33@jsg:$ 1,773.02
34@ssm1810:$ 1,760.00
35@arslan7544:$ 1,751.19
36@hitbtc-exchange:$ 1,736.61
37@me-tarzan:$ 1,693.60
38@salva82:$ 1,688.86
39@jackkang:$ 1,631.35
40@shaka:$ 1,619.15
41@rednetkjh:$ 1,599.36
42@juneaugoldbuyer:$ 1,598.57
43@derekareith:$ 1,570.58
44@vip:$ 1,551.51
45@steemgrindr:$ 1,541.77
46@ezzy:$ 1,402.96
47@kevinwong:$ 1,401.90
48@naver:$ 1,265.26
49@midnightoil:$ 1,237.60
50@furion:$ 1,229.56

Hourly Breakdown by Exchange

As requested in the previous report, I've included an hourly breakdown for the past week as an interactive graph. As I've mentioned before, the code I use to get this data is on Github if you want to poke at it yourself.

STEEM

DatepoloniexbittrexblocktradesopenledgerTotal
2016-08-21-11,9096,559-383-132-5,864
2016-08-2258,974-50,433-708-3167,517
2016-08-2326,384-5,585-6,9862,54816,360
2016-08-2411-6,496-2,890-2,281-11,656
2016-08-2558,374-14,635-6292,61745,727
2016-08-2638,34926,170-1,840-1,02861,651
2016-08-2783,416-15,581-2,879-17564,781


click the image for an interactive graph

SBD

DatepoloniexbittrexblocktradesopenledgerTotal
2016-08-211,4706,893268-7447,887
2016-08-2211,6955,5332,071-6419,234
2016-08-239,8361,6323911,19113,050
2016-08-244,8586,2744,5892215,743
2016-08-25-5,58716,4801,91212,03424,838
2016-08-26-16,2928,4622,8778-4,946
2016-08-27-48,05015,1013,25236-29,661


click the image for an interactive graph

USD

DatepoloniexbittrexblocktradesopenledgerTotal
2016-08-21($ 8,175)$ 11,589($ 60)($ 790)$ 2,565
2016-08-22$ 57,939($ 35,256)$ 1,339($ 312)$ 23,709
2016-08-23$ 30,157($ 2,967)($ 5,230)$ 3,134$ 25,094
2016-08-24$ 4,478$ 575$ 1,910($ 1,804)$ 5,159
2016-08-25$ 41,559$ 3,454$ 1,256$ 13,164$ 59,433
2016-08-26$ 15,691$ 28,721$ 1,174($ 815)$ 44,771
2016-08-27$ 22,527$ 1,428$ 688($ 107)$ 24,537


click the image for an interactive graph

Commentary

  • Amazingly, the ratio of withdraws to deposits exactly matches last week at 3.85/1. Previous values 3.85/1, 3.09/1, and 3.42/1.

  • We didn't see a doubling like we did the week before, but the amount transferred to exchanges did go up, even with the falling price of STEEM ($142,843 to $185,267). Given the last report had a price of STEEM at $1.42 and this one is $0.80, that is quite a lot of STEEM/SBD in USD terms.

  • Last week's STEEM total: -125,961, this week is -178,516.

  • Last week, on the net, people were taking SBD off of exchanges. This week, they are sending them to exchanges (even though there was a large amount of withdrawals at the end of the week). 40,473 SBD last week compared to -46,145 SBD this week.

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P.S.
If you haven't seen it yet, I did a little video a couple days ago with some thoughts on the price of steem. I talk a bit about VESTs, Steem Power, and such. I hope you enjoy it.

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Good stuff. If only you didn't have to move coin to an exchange to try to find a little anonymity, eh?

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Thanks for the comment and the vote, Bernie. I think there are plenty of cryptocurrencies which specialize in anonymous transactions. Steem specializes in providing a social media platform. Social media is different than other forms of media in that it involves relationships, conversations, and trust. It's only a repeated prisoner's dilemma which encourages cooperation. That requires identification. Pure anonymity would be the same as one-off encounters leading to defection as the most advantageous strategy.

I have no problem with whales moving to exchanges and even converting to cryptocurrencies which offer them anonymity as long as they do it as rational actors who value their own long term well being. Converting too much too quickly might jeopardize the holdings of everyone involved. That's one of the reasons I like this report. It keeps people honest about their short and long term intentions.

Nice work @lukestokes, I was actually looking at setting up my own piston to get this data and see what's happening, who's bailing out :)

2 short notes:

  1. Your data shows @charlieshrem put out $ 10,272.00 but I only see a transfer to poloniex of 1135.874 SBD if I look at his wallet. Not sure what's going on there.

  2. You got a typo: "Give the last report .." should be "Given the last report..."

Thanks again man!

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Thanks for the edit fix! I really appreciate that.

As for Charlie: $0.92 * 1135.874 = 1045.00408. Not sure why that's a little off from 10,272.00 though... maybe some STEEM transfers offset that or there's another transfer included in the data?

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It should be listed unless there's some error on steemit. It's more than a little off hahahah
Maybe he Powered up with the weekly process and those don't show up in the wallet but may be perceived as transfers?

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Very valuable post. I'm curious as too how much it will make.

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Thank you.

Here are the payouts of the previous posts in the series, if you're curious:
$49.28
$124.16 (the summary report)
$320.09
$63.76

It's all mostly the same data. The variation there probably comes to timing, luck, and who happened to notice with a large amount of Steem Power. That should remind us all, payouts on Steemit really are like a lottery. There is no "fairness" as some people think. That just creates invalid expectations which leads to frustration.

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Still much better payouts than any other social media site. Let me ask. When the purple line in the chart (total exchanges) is positive what does that signal?

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$0.05 is better than other social media sites pay out, so I'm right there with you. :)

When the purple line in the chart (total exchanges) is positive what does that signal?

That means the exchanges had a net positive transfer amount, meaning when you take the total amount transferred into an exchange and subtract out the amount transferred out of an exchange, you ended up with a positive number, meaning more people transferred money to an exchange that off an exchange.

As to what that actually signals? Well... maybe nothing. Or it could signal they are planning to sell on the exchange which might be a leading indicator of future price drops if the market can't sustain that sell pressure.

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Looks like Bernie found it. 8-)

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Awesome! There's also a couple of other big votes!

can't blame @berniesanders he's got a new beach house to pay for.

Great report, I wish I had caught the previous posts in the series. Following you now so I don't miss any more.

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Thanks for the follow! Greatly appreciated.

I don't quite understand what you are saying here lukestokes is this transfered out of steemit to exchanges

Last week's STEEM total: -125,961, this week is -178,516.

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Sorry, that Total Transferred section is a little confusing. I flip the sign there to represent the net total of STEEM transferred from non-exchange accounts out to exchange accounts so I have a negative there to represent "transfer out of steemit" but even that may be confusing because it's all still in steemit in that if you add everything together the net is 0.

The first report I linked to might help explain things a little better as well.

Can't see me getting far on my pittance, maybe one day

Do you have any thoughts on the price at which it no longer makes sense to transfer out? What is the intrinsic value of STEEM?

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Hah, did you just say "intrinsic value"? I thought you were past such silly ideas, Jason. :) From my perspective, nothing has value other than in the moment of exchange. Value is caused by scarcity, supply, and demand. Air is valuable only when you don't have any for your next breath.

I have no idea what the short term will be, but I do expect a lot of volatility. It's possible the price of STEEM fizzles out to pennies and all interest in this platform is lost. Maybe a competitor with better features takes over and everyone looking to disrupt the current social media giants will follow them next.

I think, however, this thing will survive and thrive in time. What I've already seen of the development team over the last month or so really impresses me. I think they will adapt and survive as needed. I just hope enough of the masses care about things like censorship and the benefits of cryptocurrency to make the shift and start posting here. Whether or not that happens will depend on how many of us can convince our friends and acquaintances to joins us here. I'm glad you made it. You're probably my only long term success story so far, though I have my other friends who are interested.

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If we do see STEEM valued at pennies, we'll quickly see who's here because they value the decentralisation or have a long term vision.

Edit: By the way, I can't see the price dropping that low before buyers step in.

I love these financial summaries you post.

I hope I never show up on your top withdrawal list, I'd feel really guilty if I did. :)

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Thanks, I'm glad you like them. No reason to feel guilty, IMO. Everyone has their own intentions here and some do need to spread the wealth around via the market. In order for there to be buyers, there has to be sellers.

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Agreed. I had to cash out a couple of times to make rent when I came up short. I didn't feel guilty doing that.. But in general I try to power up or stay powered up when possible.
(At unleast until steem / steemit has proven it is a workable model over the next year or two)
It's so early yet.

Great stuff, Luke. Grateful for your efforts.

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Thanks, Sean. I really appreciate your votes and words of encouragement, as does @corinnestokes. :)

Suoer interesting.
By cross matching with the rewards of certain accounts, you immediately see who is "in it for the money" (also check their "I milk it til the last drop" poor articles still generating lots of money).
On the other hand you can also see who envisions a longer lasting relationship with the platform.

Great findings. I know better who to follow, and who not to follow anymore ;-)

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I'm not sure it's that cut and dry for me. Some people are cashing out to spread the Steem around and diversify their portfolio, which is completely understandable, IMO. I put a lot more analysis into the first post in this series you might be interested in.

As for who to follow, I think that should be based on the quality of the content. I'm working hard to earn followers because I think they will be the best value here in terms of relationships over the long term.

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Followers are the hardest to get. I agree.
(And i follow you now).

Regarding the analysis, I'll have a look.
Yes, for 90% of the accounts, they may have a reason to cash out (i do myself cash out 10% of my SBD to invest in other cryptos).

I just say that some of the top transfers just confirmed my opinion about some whales: some quite poor articles and massive rewards... to cash out 90% of it.
Mmhm...

On the other hand, it confirmed the quality of members like Jeff Berkwick for instance. I do not share his position, but he makes some points and seem to be 100% engaged in what he believes in. Same behavior on and regarding Steemit. I like the guy.

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Yeah, I don't understand all the Jeff bashing. I've been following him for years and though (IMO) he's gone off the rails a bit lately with all his Shemitah stuff, he does have some interesting ideas I enjoy hearing.

A lot of the whale accounts aren't whales because of their content. They are whales because they were early adopters, took risk, and mined before anyone else. I commend them for their luck and foresight. At the same time, I work my butt off with whatever tools I have which include coding, some writing, and even a video now and again. I'm enjoying this whole process immensely. :)

Thanks for the follow, @sebastien.

au revoir!

(And no, I don't speak any French at all. I had to Google for this.)

Good work my friend. A really nice analysis of the cryptos exit and entering in Steemit. Hope some day can be in that 50 list. Have a nice Tuesday.

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Thank you!

Which list are you hoping to be on, the deposit or withdrawal? ;)