Exchange Transfer Report: 8/14/2016 to 8/20/2016

in stats •  2 years ago

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The Top 50 Accounts Transferring Money to and from Exchanges

Note: the USD amounts shown here are based on the following rates as of when I ran the report, not an average over the past week:

  • STEEM: $1.42
  • SBD: $0.89

Assumptions

Please see the first report for a detailed explanation of my personal assumptions related to what this data could mean.

Previous Reports

Exchange Transfer Activity from 08/14/2016 to 08/20/2016

First included transfer: 2016-08-14T00:01:33+00:00
Last included transfer: 2016-08-20T23:59:15+00:00


----------------------------- Exchanges ------------------------------

@poloniex STEEM transfer total: 208,031.101
@poloniex SBD transfer total: -64,585.460
@bittrex STEEM transfer total: -36,033.580
@bittrex SBD transfer total: 3,638.222
@blocktrades STEEM transfer total: 153,541.729
@blocktrades SBD transfer total: 19,666.646
@openledger STEEM transfer total: 421.916
@openledger SBD transfer total: 807.516

------------------------- Total Transferred --------------------------

Total STEEM transferred: -325,961.166
Total SBD transferred: 40,473.076
Total USD transferred: ($   426,843.82)

------------ Total Transferred, Excluding Steemit Account ------------

Total STEEM transferred (excluding steemit): -125,961.166
Total SBD transferred (excluding steemit): 40,473.076
Total USD transferred (excluding steemit): ($   142,843.82)

--------------------- Withdrawl to Deposit Ratio ---------------------

Accounts withdrawing: 1012
Average withdrawal amount: ($       719.64)
Median withdrawal amount: ($        16.41)

Accounts depositing: 263
Average deposit amount:  $       297.86
Median deposit amount:  $       141.63

Ratio of withdrawals to deposits: 3.85/1

TOP 50 WITHDRAWALS

AccountNet Transfer Amount
1@steemit:($ 284,000.00)
2@imadev:($ 29,606.63)
3@berniesanders:($ 26,714.46)
4@smooth-c:($ 24,883.00)
5@enki:($ 12,535.69)
6@rainman:($ 12,249.91)
7@btcmsia:($ 12,026.19)
8@anwenbaumeister:($ 8,455.00)
9@cloop1:($ 7,100.00)
10@complexring:($ 7,043.28)
11@pharesim:($ 6,887.00)
12@summon:($ 6,816.00)
13@ericvancewalton:($ 6,212.14)
14@icfiedler:($ 6,208.34)
15@charlieshrem:($ 5,835.73)
16@wayfairer:($ 5,705.43)
17@steempty:($ 5,669.64)
18@asd91:($ 5,661.99)
19@wang:($ 5,445.70)
20@fuzzyvest:($ 5,430.84)
21@riensen:($ 5,310.65)
22@ryan-singer:($ 4,143.33)
23@arsahk:($ 4,127.59)
24@celebr1ty:($ 4,060.99)
25@clayop:($ 4,034.66)
26@sterlinluxan:($ 3,757.82)
27@kushed:($ 3,611.65)
28@allasyummyfood:($ 3,560.89)
29@drunchpunk:($ 3,558.30)
30@silversteem:($ 3,495.19)
31@coldstorage1:($ 3,436.61)
32@dele-puppy:($ 3,376.48)
33@alexbeyman:($ 3,340.70)
34@masteryoda:($ 3,193.61)
35@justinlaak:($ 3,144.02)
36@infovore:($ 2,966.37)
37@kaylinart:($ 2,951.26)
38@opheliafu:($ 2,841.14)
39@calaber24p:($ 2,815.36)
40@abdul:($ 2,731.24)
41@recursive:($ 2,686.31)
42@ani625:($ 2,659.66)
43@nextgencrypto:($ 2,639.79)
44@cryptorambler:($ 2,626.90)
45@steempower:($ 2,619.01)
46@b0y2k:($ 2,607.13)
47@lafona-miner:($ 2,480.24)
48@graavor:($ 2,399.73)
49@hisnameisolllie:($ 2,390.50)
50@corbettreport:($ 2,225.00)

TOP 50 DEPOSITS

AccountNet Transfer Amount
1@ramta:$ 27,637.30
2@aurel:$ 25,135.38
3@laonie:$ 23,397.68
4@asksisk:$ 16,708.42
5@thisvsthis:$ 13,802.53
6@doudou252666:$ 12,993.18
7@renohq:$ 11,496.94
8@roy2016:$ 8,840.28
9@juneaugoldbuyer:$ 7,479.71
10@cass:$ 7,281.13
11@creadordelfuturo:$ 6,429.02
12@leesunmoo:$ 6,311.62
13@xpilar:$ 6,033.73
14@riverhead:$ 5,511.02
15@dan-bn:$ 5,038.19
16@inchonbitcoin:$ 4,996.95
17@bonface:$ 4,955.80
18@n628:$ 4,419.36
19@heyrhett:$ 4,359.52
20@rubybian:$ 3,834.37
21@inv:$ 3,833.99
22@neptun:$ 3,192.73
23@anotherjoe:$ 2,972.96
24@paquito:$ 2,874.67
25@cyber:$ 2,677.23
26@carolyn.vincent:$ 2,638.53
27@inboundinken:$ 2,564.47
28@anonymario:$ 2,093.91
29@mightypenguin:$ 1,953.84
30@me-tarzan:$ 1,859.65
31@ssm1810:$ 1,690.07
32@shoesnfood:$ 1,581.68
33@skradmin:$ 1,564.78
34@shaka:$ 1,563.36
35@xaero1:$ 1,420.63
36@slowwalker:$ 1,405.32
37@myfirst:$ 1,282.51
38@liaopeic:$ 1,253.97
39@fminerten1:$ 1,253.44
40@albensilverberg:$ 1,246.50
41@richhorn:$ 1,239.62
42@kakradetome:$ 1,224.94
43@thecryptofiend:$ 1,217.82
44@robrigo:$ 1,108.81
45@playerdeus:$ 1,104.55
46@pakisbtc:$ 1,065.00
47@ilanaakoundi:$ 1,065.00
48@neoxian:$ 1,061.52
49@disofdis:$ 1,013.43
50@brains:$ 986.40

Commentary

  • The Steemit account is back, which may mean they are cashing out every two weeks. Making payroll, maybe?

  • @laonie is back buying again. Come on China, let's do this thing!

  • The ratio of withdraws to deposits is at its highest since we started reporting the data: 3.85/1. Last week was 3.09/1 and the previous week was 3.42/1.

  • Last week the dollar amount transferred to exchanges doubled ($76,971.82 to $153,795.45). This week it more than doubled again from $153,795.45 to $426,843.82. If you exclude the Steemit account, it was actually a little lower than last week ($142,843.82).

Hope you had a great weekend!

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Very useful analysis. I would like to know what this mean for the future?

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My thoughts - lots of new users investing a lot of BTC that I don't recognize. Growth!

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Wouldn't we all. :) Predicting the future is a fool's errand.

My hope is we'll be able to keep an eye on who's doing what to get a better understanding of if the whales are continuing to act as rational actors in their own long-term self interest. If they dump too much, too soon, we could all go down.

Wow amazing

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wow amazing top deposit, very good :D

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A couple weeks ago the top deposits were even higher. Interesting stuff to keep track of.

Well I am holding the 168S$ I have then .Will check out next week :)

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I've gone back and forth over the last month what do with SBD. I usually end up just selling it on the internal market and powering it up. Lately I've been doing the 7 day conversion to take advantage of the amount it's below $1 because I believe you get $1 of STEEM at the 7 day average price (even if SBD are selling for $0.89 as they are right now on the open market). Good luck, either way!

I'm struggling to find a connection between the higher withdrawal ratio and the price of steem. The price has been relatively stable this week. With a higher level of withdrawals I would expect a lower price. All I can think is that your report doesn't include the trading on the exchanges outside of the Steemit platform. There must be buyers there making up the difference.

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There must be buyers there making up the difference.

Yes, I've mentioned that in previous reports, but it might be good to reiterate it regularly. Over the counter trades are not represented here at all. That said, it's also possible people are moving large amounts of STEEM to exchanges but not executing trades to people who want to power up. That would be a silly strategy, IMO, because STEEM loses value over time. It's also possible the price is being kept up by people who have deep pockets and aren't willing to see it go down, so they buy up whatever is out there to support the price. It might be really interesting to compare this data with the order book data of the various exchanges involved and see where all that value is actually going, if it's sitting on exchanges and what's happening as far as the sell/buy activity. Or maybe to see who is powering up their money, instead of just moving it back to Steemit as SBD.

It's also possible I'm just doing something wrong with how I'm collecting this data. So far, after three weeks, I haven't had anyone suggest it's not accurate though.

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Over the counter trades are not represented here at all

No trades are represented here really, and that's part of the problem in trying to attach an interpretation. If (exchange) customer A moves the coins to the exchange, you really can't tell whether customer A is holding them there, or customer A has sold them to customer B (or C, etc.) who is holding them there.

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That's true. In the first report I spent a lot of time explaining my assumptions regarding this data and haven't bothered to repeat those assumptions with each report. I'd love to see your comments there in case I made some bad assumptions. To me, given the incentives to keep value in the Steemit ecosystem (10% returns on SBD held in your own account, share dilution protection via Steem Power, and inflation penalties of holding STEEM), transferring money to an exchange (IMO), is a very strong signal of an intent to cash out of a Steemit related token of value into some other token of value. If a customer on an exchange buys those tokens and doesn't take them back out of the exchange it's also an indication that customer is interested in market speculation of STEEM and SBD and not holding that value long term. Again, these are my assumptions and I explained them in detail a few weeks ago. Do you think it would be helpful to reference them with each report or do you think the data is too misleading and/or the assumptions are incorrect?

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I added an "Assumptions" section linking back to my first post. Thanks @smooth!

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Can you add information about exchange wallets including balance and variation over the period? The difference between deposits and withdrawals should match perfectly the variation of the exchange balance. If it doesn't, look at whether exchanges are converting SBD into STEEM.

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Ah, interesting question. Yeah, that might be worth adding. Check out the summary which breaks down the exchange transfer activity for each day in SBD, STEEM, and USD as separate interactive reports.

Good post man thanks for the info!

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You're welcome, @stealthtrader! Hope you're doing well.

Great exposition. It certainly explains the steady selling pressure.

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Any thoughts on why the price isn't lower with all this value going out to exchanges but not coming back in?

I wonder if people are buying up SBD after selling STEEM and just leaving their SBD on an exchange. They'd miss out on the 10% interest, but it would be better than holding STEEM.

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That explanation doesn't work. If the STEEM are going to an exchange, and staying there, then someone is holding them on the exchange in the form of STEEM. It may be the original owner who transferred the there, or it could be a new owner, but it is certainly someone.

What we are seeing with these imbalanced numbers is more and more coins being held on exchanges and less directly in the system. Whether that is a good or bad thing is unclear (though it is reasonably clear that it is good for SP holders, all else being equal, which it may not be). What these reports tell us is more about shifts in in the nature of ownership, not really anything directly related to the price.

Important principle to remember: For every seller there is a buyer. It is true 100% of the time. But it is also the case that these buyers need not move their coins off an exchange necessarily, so net coins moving to an exchange does not always mean an excess of selling pressure. For example, we could see an increase in buying demand on exchanges, and coins moving to exchanges to satisfy that demand. (In fact this is exactly what happened in mid July when there was an large price increase.) Other market dynamics are possible.

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Whether that is a good or bad thing is unclear

As I mentioned in my other comment reply, I stated my assumptions in detail in the first report. I still think it's a safe assumption to make that money held in an exchange is a strong indicator for the desire to exchange steem related value to some other token of value. Otherwise, why else would someone transfer to an exchange?

these reports tell us is more about shifts in in the nature of ownership, not really anything directly related to the price.

Maybe not directly related to price, but isn't change in ownership what impacts price? Without a change in ownership, there's no change in supply/demand, so no change in price.

(In fact this is exactly what happened in mid July when there was an large price increase.)

The summary report also shows some negative days in July which means those who purchased transferred that value off the exchange back to their own accounts. Negative days in mid July for STEEM include:

  • 2016-07-11
  • 2016-07-17
  • 2016-07-18
  • 2016-07-23
  • 2016-07-24

Though in total, those days are dwarfed by large transfers to exchanges on 2016-07-12, 2016-07-14, and 2016-07-20.

Thanks for your feedback, @smooth! I've been posting this data for a weeks now, looking for more input and challenges to my interpretations. Your input is greatly appreciated!

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I still think it's a safe assumption to make that money held in an exchange is a strong indicator for the desire to exchange steem related value to some other token of value.

At some point perhaps, but when it comes down to it, someone is still owning it either way. What it means most likely is that there is increased interest in shorter-term speculative owning as opposed to longer-term owning.

but isn't change in ownership what impacts price?

Sure, but there isn't an clear connection between exchange flows and price. There may be some connections, under some circumstances, with asterisks. You pointed this out as well!

Love this post. I'm a data junkie as a long time trader. Thanks for the info!

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You're welcome. I hope you enjoy the previous reports as well as the summary. Give me a follow for future updates.

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Thanks, will do.

Thank you, Great post, lots of info.
💋 @halo 💋

@steemit: ($ 284,000.00)
The Steemit account is back, which may mean they are cashing out every two weeks. Making payroll, maybe?

Generous payroll ;)

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Indeed. :)

I wonder if that also includes some gold-plated ping pong tables.

My hunch is not all of that is actually getting dumped on the market though. If it was, would the price still be as stable as it has been (relatively so) over the past week? I don't know.

Great post. Great information thanks mate.

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Thanks, crypto. I hope some people find it useful.

https://steemit.com/steem-ideas/@dennygalindo/let-s-get-a-steem-sbd-pair-on-bittrex
Hello, let's support the sbd price by getting bittrex to add the Steem sbd pair. Then these withdrawals won't hit he price so much.

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Interesting. Wouldn't this replicate the internal market? I wonder if there are reasons to have the internal market and not allow this externally?

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More liquidity is better for markets. With the Steem -sbd pair on bittrex it would make it easier for the internal market to match the external market. If the prices internally were closer to market rates you would probably get more volume internally.

Hi Luke, thanks for the stats. Is it possible to get these numbers per hour or when is the peak of the day this withdrawals happen?
I am here for long term:

https://steemit.com/steemit/@steempowerwhale/who-is-powering-up-or-am-i-alone-the-steemit-power-up-club

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Anything is possible. I just haven't looked into it at that detail.