2/1/2018 The Market View and Trading Outlook
And so we wait, and wait, and wait and wait… That is pretty much the name of the game when a market is undergoing a severe correction. In my experience the trick to being successful is to have the cash on hand when the time to buy finally arises. Sadly though, so many won’t, they have spent the correction playing pick the bottom, buy the false breakout, being greedy and refusing to sell thereby turning a winning position into a losing one etc. In markets such as this, if you do choose to trade, play a tight game and sell when you are up.
So many will actually start out with a good trade on a temporary bottom, watch it turn profitable, summarily watch it turn south and continue holding as it passes beneath their initial buy point while they hope for a turn around. The result is they finally sell when things don’t turn around, create a loss, and then say “if I would of only sold while the price was X dollars”. A bear market is not a bull market, greed will get you slaughtered in a bear market. It’s playing heads or tails and 8 out of 10 times you are going to lose if you HODL as opposed to selling while the trade is profitable.
So let us get to the charts…
The 12 hour chart is somewhat interesting from the perspective of volume. I can now see fear beginning to take hold and the short term sells are coming on higher and higher volume, ergo some HODLERS are beginning to lose faith and liquidating their positions. I spent 30 minutes or so trying to dig through the market report archives for something I remember saying earlier to the effect of it will get violent to the downside beneath $9000 as those that bought the $11,000 to $9000 dip around Nov 26th are going to start becoming incentivized to sell as their HODLing ways have watched spectacular gains turn into losses. The next group that folds will be those HOLDing the Nov 8th $8000 to $5400 dip; again whom have watched 100% profits dwindle down and down and down.
Overall Volume will still decline as we approach the bottom, but volume in the shorter frames will be high, fast and choppy as more and more throw in the towel having held to long.
As for the indicators, the $9000 may hold for a bit as it is another strong psychological barrier, but each day more and more lose faith and throw in the towel. MACD/Signal line has us strongly diverged to the downside, meaning price will stabilize for a bit or hang around this level for a bit before failing dramatically. RSI has us oversold etc. A good time to play smaller frames and I would not be surprised to see a run for $9550 before failing again. I do not believe we will get anywhere close to the $10,000 in the short term and when we finally do again it will be a huge victory for the Bulls when we pass it again.
I’m going to add the 2 hour as it is pretty indicative of the other time frames as well. We are currently well below the longer term 77 period moving average thanks to the high volume sell off of last night; accordingly we will more than likely round the corner and head up towards the 21 period moving average at 9600-ish before failing in favor of a lower low. The hourly is basically the same and a retracement towards the bottom of the 21 period moving average would again be around $9600 so I would sell out starting around $9450 if we make the turn. I picked up some BTC at $8759 on Coinbase this a.m. and will wait and see how it pans out or if I need to bail.
Lastly this is still in play in regards to follow on losses: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-21-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
From my analyis on the 21st
What we are on the verge of at the moment is a busted ascending triangle. In which case if we close below the start of the triangle at $9236 the average follow on decline is 11 percent which would put us at $8220; this is just an average decline post pattern failure; could be more, could be less. What I find a bit concerning is that if the pattern does bust we would be in moving average free fall territory with no clear line of support. The weekly 21 MA is at $8900 so it would put up a fight before succumbing to downwards pressure, likely get some good bounces around that area before failing in spectacular fashion to possibly find the 3 day 77 at $6700.
My Previous Analysis:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-31-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook-actual-info
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-30-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook-actual-info
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-29-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-27-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-26-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-25-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-24-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
Hey dude,
Here's one for your shitposts:
User @elysiian has a heap of accounts that all post a single image mostly stolen from DailyHaha.com... all these accounts upvote each other and get upvotes from using Busy.Org... these accounts (wygrana-wygrana, strongwhale, steemitdice, pozytywny, etc etc) then send all their earnings to @elysiian who then powers up and leases out SP to people. It's account is worth $88k just from this crazy circle jerk of spamming Steem.
So frustrating.
Really.. now that is interesting.. I will check that out..
What a plummet! Nice update! Will 7500 be the low? This makes for a more than 50% crash. Based on bitcoins crash a few years ago when it went from $1200 to $250 (and as low as $190 I do believe), I wonder if we're on a crash to $2500. I've always seen exponential growth, but exponential crashes as well.
Will we see a $2500 bitcoin again? Only time will tell, but if bitcoin can go from 5500 to 19000 in 2 months, then the floor in my opinion could be between 2500 and 5500.
Of course, I'm no fortune teller, so I wouldn't know. Right now I plan on putting in another $20, and if it drops again I'll put in another $20. I wouldn't put much more then that though.
I think I figured 60 percent plus in December so I would not say we are there yet.. sub 6k is totally possible.. now it is getting real for some people.. and the good selling can begin as the pain begins..
Good analysis mate. Sadly, I bought much higher than we are here so will be holding my BTC for quite a while now. :(
Thanks, out of curiosity where did you get trapped at an when? I to have made bad trades in the past, plenty.. lol.. Whats the mentality of HoDling now? What if it were to hit $6500 do you still HODL? or is it the not wanting to realize that actual loss when you sell and just keeping the paper loss so you never have to realize the real loss. Also why HODL if you could realize the loss now, pick it back up at a lower point later? Not being rude.. I just enjoy understanding the mindset of other traders..
I bought in at a few price points ranging from the heights of $17000 right through to $11,000.
I expect another bull run at some stage this year so don’t really feel too concerned at the price right now. Bitcoin has seen many corrections over the years and tends to recover.
The other option is to convert everything to Steem Power which I am quite open to.
It usually does.. but to play the devils advocate, why would it? What does btc as a Gen 1 token have that makes it recover worthy? What is its intrinsic value? What problem does it solve? I mean BCH does everything BTC does and its faster and cheaper as well? As I am objective to a fault, I have to look at BTC from the standpoint of what does it have to offer besides name recognition. How hard would it be for Bittrex or Poliniex or the others to weigh their pairs against another coin besides BTC..
We’re already seeing more pairs with ETH now as well which currently seems to be the more stable coin.
I almost converted everything to Steem Power last night actually and am kind of wishing that I did.
Lol, same here..
@pawsdog congrats, man ! I also want to congratulate myself for keeping it real and not BS-ing your followers. The chart says what it says, a lot of analysts are just "buy the dipping" all the time, since 17,000$ LOL
Good job my man :)
I agree.. Charts say what they say, they have no feelings, no emotions, nothing they just say what they say and that is it.. I'm a bit on the fence at the moment.. and have a theory.. There is "no science behind what comes next...
21 Dec (high volume sell off)
24 Days following
15.16 Jan (high volume sell off)
14 Days following
Feb 1st (High volume sell off)
8??? Days following based on .55 (or 14/24)
No science just amusement.. so we WILD ASS GUESS TAKE ANOTHER HIT ON THE 8th or 9th.. Thoughts..
Again no science to this.. and it is just a guess... Like our low calls.. I think I was 5800 and you were 6400?????
I believe I was 5750 and you were 6385$ (something like that) I think we might see a great panic selling on 6-7th of February. Reasoning: CFTC and SEC will discuss crypto regulation on the 6th. So weak hands have another reason to let go of their crypto. I will discuss this in my next post. To be honest my long-term holdings are on such good levels that I will buy a bit more for the long-term. I wrote to you on steemit.chat yesterday.
Volume is very good today, but still didn't see capitulation today, there is room to fall :)
I agree, more panic to come.. and we will go with those numbers...