1/5/2017 The Market View and Trading Outlook
I do apologize for the late delivery of today’s market report, it was a busy market this morning and I have been Goodwill Shopping oversold Alt Coins on Bittrex. Moving on….
BTC, may well be out of the woods and on the way to higher ground. So what changed? Not much, the 2 and four hour from yesterday were extremely bullish as I mentioned and accordingly price went up. If you check the article I wrote:
“Trading with moving averages, pattern recognition and forecasting.”.
You will see that the most recent BTC chart nearly mirrors that of the ETH chart of recent, accordingly price went up.
On to the good stuff. In the 12 hour time frame the 7/77 cross is looking excellent and we may yet get a 21/77 upside cross which is nearly as bullish as you can get in terms of projected price action. Additionally the minor sell off I mentioned before has been met with an even greater period of buying according to the MACD Histogram; again bullish. Most tellingly we smashed right through the MACD 0 line === Xtra Bullish.
Onto being objective. We are entering overbought territory and there is beginning to develop significant MACD/Signal line divergence which will either bring price down or force it to trade sideways as the averages catch up to these most recent highs. In the event of the latter expect some really nice Alt coin action as they catch up as opposed to what many experience today as they got crushed.
As the 12 is a very broad spectrum indicator I am of the opinion that we could very well solidly break $17,000 before entering another phase of consolidation. Do not take this to mean that we are going straight up as we will likely experience some Elliot wave action on the shorter time frames on our way to $17,000.
Onto the 6 hour time frame. Price decisively breached the longer term 77 period moving average at 0100 EST and created an excellent 7/77 cross (very bullish), now we are simply waiting on the 21 to follow and likewise breach the 77 (may be sounding all clear at the point). Read yesterday’s analysis of the 6 hour in regards to the significance of this cross relative to future price prediction. So long term we are looking good. Very near term volume for the most recent pull upwards from $15,000 to $16,000 was less than that of the climb from $13,000 to $14,500, 6 hour buying frames usually last at most 5 or 6 days and we are on the 5th right now.
So objectively speaking we are getting close to entering a slight cool down period of sideways action and possibly a wave pullback. Also note the 2 and 4 hour time frames, their patterns, how they reacted once they crossed the 77 and expect the same of the 6 hour time frame. I do not see the price going below $15,000, accordingly cast some buys in the $15,350-$15,600 range providing we do not pull upwards in the next couple of hours, if so adjust accordingly with a Fibonacci retracement of price post breaking north of the moving average. I would like to see $17,141 with a pullback during the selling period to around $15,300 or a 50% Fibonacci retracement that keeps price above the 77 period moving average.
The 4 hour is still looking excellent as I mentioned yesterday, we have had our first selling bar according to the MACD histogram and volume for this run up to from $15,000 to $16,000 lacks the volume of the $13,000-$15,000 run, and so we may experience a cool down and some consolidation. I have drawn my projected trend lines as well as what I think may be the next 4 hour candle. One more grunt up, some sideways treading water, then a trend down to build more momentum upwards.
The 2 hour, is where I make most of my intraday decisions. Accordingly I bought the 7/21 cross at $14,800 and it’s been a good day so far.
Not much to discuss in regards to the two hour other than it mirrors the larger time frames, volume is declining we may be entering a cool off period, MACD/Signal line divergence is present to the upside, we are well extended from the moving average, in over bought territory etc. Basically healthy, expect an uneventful selling period, followed by a push upwards maybe twice more but to a lesser extend then some off gassing as price settles in averages catch up and Alts regain some lost ground.
LiteCoin
(smiley face) wait for it… Do your own research and compare its current moving averages above the 1 hour with those of ETH before it made a move. Maybe we will tread along just above the 1 hour and perhaps something magical will happen. I expect a 7/21 cross above the 77, the 2 hour to break the 77, followed by the 4 etc. Invest in yourself, take a look at the most recent BTC chart with 7/21/77 as your averages and see what you can forecast on LTC. It also seems to be holding nicely in the $240-ish range; wait I called that weeks ago at $400 (and I'm not getting $500 per post.. sigh...).
I may be wrong, but let’s see. (note my drawing is a bit exaggerated on the RSI).. I see us treading above the 77 for just a bit longer, few hours or so and then.. well.. you’ll see… (Of course it is crypto so it could crash to $30.00 again..)
Previous Analysis:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-4-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-3-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-2-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-1-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-31-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-30-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-29-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-28-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
It's time to write my view on BTC price. No more Stalemate battle for the heights had started.
Building SP slowly my wote is already $0.02 I'm improving. BTC also. I'm not a Bitcoin Cesar because my prediction of $10k dip is buried. But I load all available forces to BTC in the morning. (14h ago).
M'eh... don't feel bad.
I told everyone that BitCoin was going to correct before the year's end in multiple posts and on multiple comments and nobody listened.
I've also been telling everyone not to get used to the high SBD price and that STEEM/SBD would Flip, most likely after a drop.
I just miss something important on the second chart in my analysis #23. from Dec-30-2017.
I miss to take into account major support line so sceario 2 had played out. Pattern ABCD falls and support line wins. Price never cross the major support line rebounce from it and breakout resistance at around $14000. so my prediction fails in predicting level but is other ways is still valid sedpite it is already a week old.
Welcome to the Good side. Stay tuned It will be more analyses. I will rather give to you insight into trading mysteries and help you get some more coins trading and I promise, I will Upvote Myself no More and rather upvote your good stuff, not like haejin, cryptopassion, ew-and-patterns, lordoftruth and many others, selfishly grabbing everything for themselves.
(#1), (#2)
I hope I find another noble Crypter (human of crypto world) and Steemian !!
Yeah, this market changes fast.. a lot of times when I am unsure, I default to the moving averages for guidance and ideas.. I'm studying more on Elliot waves.. picked up a cool book.. I think I saw in one @deanlogic posts or it may of been another one of the crypto nerds... :) "elliot wave principle , frost and prector" https://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/1616040815/ref=dp_olp_all_mbc?ie=UTF8&condition=all I know the concept, but I want to spend the next few months mastering the technique to augment what I already know..
Time to dump the Alt-Coins and jump on the BTC rocket ship!!
Why dump them, when you can pick them up at a discount? BTC up 10 percent Alts down 30 percent.. Pick alts up.. and wait for them to catch up.. Not going all in by any means but bargain shopping a few...Diversity...
Dump now, BTC goes up, buy more Alts on the cheap. ;)
I'm picking the up along the way.. waiting for my LTC horde to pay its tuition at the moment.
Of course, if I had dumped it all and put it into Aeron, a no-name going that wasn't even in the top 200 a few hours ago, then I'd be sitting really happy.
Beep!Beep! @shadow3scalpel & listkeeper @chairborne have your six new veterans, retirees and military members on STEEM. We’ll be patrolling by to upvote your posts (because you are on the list) and we'll answer any questions you leave us. Comment by @shadowspub. This is a opt-in bot.
Yeah, where's your Rancho upvote?
I had a laugh before as I logged onto Bittrex and all my alts had double digit negative percentages except for ETH and LTC that only had single digit negative percentages. So, I bet you did great with your Goodwill alt shopping.
I bought some more LTC earlier today.. there are some rumours floating around that Amazon was going to start to accept Litecoin. I've dug around there is no basis whatsoever (except for some customer service reps guessing) for this rumour, but it did lead me to check the charts for ol mate LTC and it looked okay, so I thought I'd dip in a little bit more.... so you can imagine how excited I am to find you're all smiles about it today.
A 7/21 upwards cross on the 4 would be nice as would a solid break above $250 on high volume. May not happen today, but its' in the works.. Of course it could crash to 0 as well.. TA says we should go up... It's close to crossing, then a 7/77 cross, a pullback, a 21/77 and life should be pretty sweet.. I have been accumulating since the fall to $144 of the $420 high.. started in grabbing them around $160. Gonna be some ups and downs, but we may be out of the woods for LTC.. I would be really happy for a nice run to $350 or so... Hell I'll settle for $300..