1/3/2017 The Market View and Trading Outlook
Time to trade the trends.
Bitcoin may be on the path to recovery and it may not, it is still too early to tell one way or the other. On a positive note we are in a positive 12 hour buying period, though it lacks a lot of enthusiasm (mediocre volume) price made it to $15,000 as I said it would yesterday. It also appears to be holding for the time being which will allow the moving averages to catch up and add support against losses and bounce points for future gains. Also on a positive note is that this buying period has thus far outlasted the prior 12 hour buying period by one frame thus far and price has broken above the 77 period moving average. The 7/21 averages are still below the 77 and the MACD has yet to break the 0 line; both will serve as upside resistance. Accordingly I would expect to see a minor sell off coming in the next 48 hours to test moving average support and investor confidence.
The 6 hour time frame is fighting resistance at the 77 and will likely get smacked down to the $14,000 dollar range before making another push to break above. RSI has us overbought, MACD/Signal line has divergence to the upside; both are bearish. I am thinking the that 7 or price will push down to the 21, price will probably break it but the 7 will not crossover and it will rebound upward to test the 77 once more that at that point will be slightly lower. Overall though we are looking healthier as we did have a 7/21 cross at $13,600 that would of allowed you to ride the gains up to the 77 and its then price of $15,300. I will feel much more bullish once price breaks the 77 and the 7 and 21 follow. This may occur as it has already begun in smaller time frames.
This is what we are hoping to see in the 6 hour and 12 hour time frames. Price broke above the 77, the 7 followed, and the 21 may follow suit creating a triple crossover and what I consider to be the true “golden crossover” which is very bullish. In the event that this occurs, you can expect price to hit the high $15,000 or low $16,000 range. This will not occur immediately as breakthroughs are always met with a sell off to test the validity and strength of the longer moving average. So if the 21 crosses expect price to shoot up to say $15,800 or better then fall off to $15,300 or lower as it tests the resilience of the moving average.
The 2 hour and probably where I begin to make the majority of my short term trade decisions has us at a point of indecision and sideways action. On a bullish note in regards to longer time frames price, the 7 and 21 have broken above the 77 which will help out the 4 hour in its goal to get the 21 above the 77. We have little in the way of MACD/Signal divergence and we are neither overbought nor oversold, though we are trending ever so slightly to the downside as price fights strong resistance in the +$15,000 range. We are currently in a selling period that has done little to really hurt the price, accordingly I am not seeing a major selloff in the near near future, unless the follow on buying period lacks conviction in which case we will head back down to test the 77 again. This would also line up with the battle going on for the 77 in the 6 hour time frame.
My projected trend lines from 2 days ago. As you can see they pretty much line up with what we have right now and accordingly do see a retest of the 77 as a likely event.
Previous Analysis:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-2-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/1-1-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-31-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-30-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-29-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-28-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-24-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-19-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
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I like your post
Why thank you...
Still no decision to be bullish or bearish!
I think that scenario will roll up at $14000 level where a major uptrend will start. Shooting star candle will be followed tomorrow with some down move and everything will converge it the breakout point.
p.s. What is your opinion about my article: Upvote Myself no More.
I commented it. As for BTC, look at the 5,15,30, 1h for ETC and compare it to BTC. If we can find support on the longer averages we may be o.k. but regardless we still need the 12 to break out decisively to the upside and give us some golden crosses to carry with us. It is still hit or miss but feeling a bit more bullish...