1/1/2017 The Market View and Trading Outlook
HAPPY NOT SO HAPPY NEW YEAR..
Wash, rinse, repeat,
Bitcoin is doing pretty much exactly what I said it would do in my analysis from yesterday. Price is ranging, and fighting to break longer term moving averages. As I stated yesterday I traded the trends went in on some smaller positions and exited them on signs of a reversal; in at $13,200 and out at $14,125.
Moving onto the meat and potatoes of this article.
The two hour time frame went down word for word exactly as I stated it would yesterday. The 77 provided unbreakable resistance, and it was “whack a mole” with the price as it was batted back down for further losses. Price attempted to break the 77 for 8 unsuccessful hours, and then made one more further lesser attempt 6 hours beyond that only to be rejected for lower lows. On the positive note, this period of selling has not been “high volume”, and we are entering “oversold” territory which may slow further losses down a bit. Today I will be watching to see if the 7 (blue) crosses below the 21 (purple) while already under the 77 (orange) and MACD 0 which would be extremely bearish and bring about accelerated price declines.
On the 12hour, the 7 has crossed decisively below the 77 and it looks as though the 21 is soon to follow. This may bring about a follow on selling period according to the MACD histogram in much the same fashion as the current 1 day time period is experiencing. It may also bring about a somewhat uneventful buying period that sees price rise to the high $14,000 range or better. As it has in the smaller time frames, the 77 is proving to be a difficult barrier and price has been rejected. It appears as if we may be coming to the close of this selling period and may enter a buying period that allows us to experience some gains and make progress towards recovery. If that occurs much will be learned from how much if any buying conviction we find in the next 48 hours. Hopefully it will pull the 1 day into a buying period as well which would help our cause tremendously.
More than likely we are going to experience a lower low in the sub $10,000 range at some point.
If we look at the 12 hour covering a wider span of time we can see it has previously provided support while above the MACD 0 line. As markets are cyclic it is now going to provide resistance to the upside. This is not to say there are not gains to be made following the shorter term trends, just that we are not in a HODL load up the truck we are on the way to the moon scenario. What I intend to do is buy at points where it extends significantly below the 77, ride it back up to the 77 and dump it there if it fails to break through. Price will ALWAYS attempt to make it back to the trend line (moving average) be it above or below, it will always seek to go back and honor it. In bullish times the moving average serve as support and a bounce point for further gains. In bearish times moving averages serve as ceilings for rejection and further losses.
Not much has changed here. We are still trending downwards and should find support in the $10,000 range. I do not expect price to go crashing through the $10,000 but I would not be surprised to see it hit the $10,000's, bounce up to $12,000- $13,000, limp along, break down and crash it at a later point. Much will be learned when we are finally able to enter a buying period for this time frame. If it lacks conviction, then expect impressive lows to occur during the follow on selling cycle, if it does show signs of hope, then expect moderate losses or higher lows during the selling period that follows.
Both this time frame and the weekly time frame lead me to a very bearish interpretation of overall market health. If we compare the RSI and MACD for this period to the RSI and MACD for the 1 day period above and assume that it will follow a similar path towards longer term moving averages, then the “Blue Candle” (my addition which has not yet occurred) may be a real possibility. Though I doubt it will occur quite that dramatically at first, as there will be ups and downs along the way as price swings in the lesser time frames.
Another probable price pathway if Bitcoin continues to break down and if the 3 day follows the same pattern in regards to the moving averages, RSI, MACD as demonstrated by the 1 day. Excuse my artistic skills I’m using paint.
This combined with the 3 day also makes me feel bearish about the overall health of the market. The RSI 3 (white), the faster of the two lines has nearly reached bottom, which in 90 percent of cases means the RSI 14 (purple) will come down to meet it, taking price along for the ride. We are also dangerously close to an MACD/Signal line crossover which would indicate significant losses are in the cards. As it the case with moving averages, the MACD will always come back to zero at some point. As we are extremely far above the 0 and entering bearish territory we may be in for a very exciting ride that costs a great many people trying to play pick the bottom a lot of money. We have also not seen a weekly selling period in quite some time, as such we are due for one. Based on that information I do not think we are on the path to recovery as of yet. That said this is crypto and things can change based on something as silly as a positive news report.
IF THE WEEKLY MACD/SIGNAL LINE CROSSES AND STARTS HEADING TOWARD 0 WE COULD SEE SUB $7,000 BTC OR LOWER. Again to early to tell and I am simply trying to extrapolate the behavior of lesser time frames onto larger time frames as patterns are patterns and occur in the same fashion regardless of time frame. If this becomes the case we could see a very sad market up through mid February or better. Also BTC in this price range would give BCH much momentum towards taking 1st place as it is a technologically superior product and bring about the flippening I have spoken about in the past. Play cautiously for the moment until the longer trends show definitive signs of recovery.
Remember the key to trading is not always being right, it's keeping an open mind as to all possible scenarios based upon the indicators. Taking that information and continually analyzing and reassessing it based on new information to narrow those probabilities down. This will avoid shock, keep panic away and allow you to make informed decisions based on outcomes you have already foreseen as possibilities through your analysis.
Previous Analysis:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-31-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-30-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-29-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-28-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-24-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-19-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-17-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-15-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
Beep! Beep! @shadow3scalpel at your service. I am here to assist all military members on Steemit. This HumVee will be scouting posts from a list of Veterans that is maintained by @chairborne. If you are a Veteran and new to Steemit, and you have questions or want to join the Veterans community, reply to this comment. We got your six, unless you are in the rear with the gear. Ooh-Rah!
Comment by @inthenow. This is a opt-in bot.
Thank you for taking the time to share this information.
Still finding my way around Steem and the Crypto game is still new for me.
Looking forward to a Happy New Year, Learning and Earning with the Community :)
No problem.. What I have come to find thus far is that Steemit has all the drama of a bunch of high school cheerleaders fighting over who is prettier and which football player their going to bang at homecoming. Lot's of kids in here, throwing toys, taking their balls and going home.. swinging their dicks around knocking shit off the coffee table etc. Walk with caution.. Think of it as a game of survivor, make alliances, vote people off the island, find immunity idols (other whales) and lurk in the shadows. As to crypto, it is always a wild ride and takes a tremendous amount of self study and an very open mind to be successful.
Was just comparing steemit to survivor myself yesterday...LOL
Thinking (hoping too) btc is about to bounce!
Happy 2018!
I'm hoping so as well...
Yes the play ground can be a bit much at times.
This year will be all about Learning and Earning !!
Thank you
Just keep your head low and deliver good content and you should be fine..
How amazing the same thoughts I have about this playground!
lol.. it's true
Remind me to be on position under fire!
Very true, but here I do not have a Cobra I can call in for close air support..
Yeah, we are docks setting, waiting for BS artillery to start a down vote barrage, just rifle in hand and brave hearth in chest.
Yeah sometime all you have is limited resources to make a stand. Very curious what this 12 hour buying period brings. It looks somewhat anemic thus far. At the very least it will hopefully turn the 1 day green and give us some buying room before going on the skids again..
Goddamn dude... these posts are getting better and more detailed... They were already fantastic but all of this is incredible. I've never seen any TA go through the different periods like this.
Obviously I'd prefer to see BTC to head towards $18k instead of down to $10k and below. .. but if it does I'd probably add to my BTC position.
If BTC does trend downwards, do you think money would flow to alts or leave the market completely? Market cap is literally the first thing I check every day.
Also Happy New Year mate! Hope you and the family have had a great start to the year so far. ..
I don't know the answer to that question really.. .I think that money will at first try and flow to safe haven coins or attempt to find them. If and when they start getting dragged down, I could see money leaving completely to sit it out. I would not add to my position until I see a solid upwards trend on the 1 day if I'm going big so to speak. What I really really really want is the MACD weekly to go to shit, go red, do it's thing and get on with the show. When the weekly comes back green on the other side then it will be a good time to buy. What I am theorizing is that it will come close, but we may get a follow on buying period that lacks the gusto of the most recent one. Either way we need to either bring the moving averages up or the price down to find balance and a good hop off point. Neither of which will occur without time.
Well done analysis, just be methodical and explain from larger frames to the smallest one or the other hand around. I think readability and consistence will be much better.
We slowly approaching bottom and it seems that it'll really be around $10k as i predicted 5 day ago in #20 and 2 days in #23. For now I don't feel a need for more explanations this two still holds.
I thought I did I went 12 HR.. 2 hr for reference, then 1d, 3d, 1W.. but I will edit it if you think it works better that way..
READERS DON'T LET ME BE THE ONLY TALKING HEAD @TOMBORT HAS SOLID INFO AS WELL Weigh all available information and make your own decision.I see your point now going through the text again!
I moved it around based on your suggestions...
Yeah, now it flows like milk from the bottle!
Sweet
Boom! BTC just blew thru $13800 resistance and on to $14,100 third try! On strong volume...YAY!
Not seeing a BOOM.. more like a tiny firecracker as opposed to a fourth of July Spectacular. Which exchange are you looking at I have $13980 on GDAX and $13898 on Bitfinex, no $14,100 that I can see. $14,000 is now key 2 hour and 12 hour resistance. Volume is mehh.. 1k in an hour. Breakouts typically occur on 3-5k or better. We need this 12 hour to get us into a 1 day buying period, experience another 12 downturn with little pain, a follow on buying period that brings the 3 day green.. Then we will be happy. If we were to compare the current 12H and 1D its similar to a 1 hour buying period against a 4 hour selling period, meaning gains may be somewhat underwhelming.
Boom, did you buy on the breakout? ;)
I bought a bit at 13,200 after I decided it likely won't go back to 12,500 again any time soon, if ever. Still loving that doge coin :) Was buying a bit to invest in bitconnect, I just set up accounts for my kids after having an account for myself for the last 3 weeks and I really like the concept and am on track to double my investment every 70 days or so.
Nothing wrong with doubling up...:), I think the low was $12,700 after someone dropped a 780BTC market order on us at the top.. This likely went to ETH
#bitcoin
why yes bitcoin price rise, can you explain
HUH? In simplest terms it rises because people believe it will rise.
#bitcoin
Sebenarnya harga bitcoin sudah gila sekarang, jika saya menyimpan bitcoin di dompet saya terlebih dahulu, mungkin tiba-tiba kaya
You have a very limited amount of time to get this bullshit off my page. I hate to downvote, I really do but I'm feeling spammed at the moment by your two nonsensical posts. So please do remove these as this is a place for grownups to talk. Alternatively you may add useful insight to the conversation, but spamming me for a downvote will not help your cause. It is also likely that one of the other grown ups that come here will downvote you, which again will not help your cause. Please make the appropriate changes.. thank you.
And this guy count on to understand him!
I'm from small nation (Slovenia) many times upset that I must use more widely adopted language to communicate with other people globally. But this guy or bot smells me as mumy-doomy need some $ calling for trouble(small disaster)!
#bitcoin
really as you say, I should learn first
I say you should stop spamming my articles, it does not end well for you.. I asked you nicely already..
#bitcoin
why should bitcoin, many other virtual currencies
#bitcoin
I will probably see it first, how the future