Analysis of SBD supply balance trend

in utopian-io •  2 months ago

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Repository

https://github.com/steemit/steem

※ This article is a follow-up analysis of SBD Debt Ratio Management Trend Analysis : Who removed our SBD? on November 19, 2018, and is a temporary personal opinion.

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As the rebound continued, STEEM prices were nearing the level of being able to move beyond SBD's haircut state or resume issuing new SBD.

In any case, it is clear that now is a good time to review the overall SBD supply balance trend again.

Especially in this period, we have seen some differences from the last one, so we look at them separately.

The analysis period of the data is as follows.
(UTC 2018.11.19 16:30 ~ 2019.01.18 17:00)


Aim of Analysis


  1. Daily SBD supply balance trend
  2. Top 20 Accounts Contributing to SBD Supply Balance Reduction
  3. The main cause of SBD supply decline
  4. Top 20 accounts based on current SBD hold balance
  5. Conclusion

1. Daily SBD supply balance trend


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In the last article, we saw that about 3M SBDs was switched between 10 August 2018 and 19 November 2018, two-thirds of which were led by witness @smooth. Also, since the remaining SBD supply balance is usually locked on the exchange, we knew that it would not be easy for someone to remove the SBD supply balance alone in the future.

Nevertheless, we succeeded in eliminating quite a few SBD balances. Since then, the 2.8M SBDs has disappeared for about two months (currently about 11.3M, about 14.1M at that time).

We have removed about 1.8M SBDs since the state of haircut.

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2. Top 20 Accounts Contributing to SBD Supply Balance Reduction


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Still, witness @smooth made the biggest contribution, but its share dropped sharply to about 22% (67% in the last period). No other accounts are notable.

The decrease in dependence on a certain person is a positive change.

However, it is somewhat unfortunate that the contribution of the top 20 account is still about 84% (= 2.1M / 2.5M). Of course, in the last period, the top 11 account contributed a whopping 95%, so it's actually a bit improved.


3. The main cause of SBD supply decline


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Did you find main cause of SBD supply decline in the chart above?

In general, After entering the haircut state, you can see that the SBD conversion application has been made in the area where the STEEM market is rising.

It is best when the STEEM price rises first and for several reasons the SBD is relatively underpriced and the buffers are visible enough to make you feel good even if you are exposed to STEEM fluctuation risk for 3.5 days. I also did a few small conversions on the test and I got a good profit in all cases.

In this way, SBD conversion characteristics of this period were mainly made for profit purposes to increase STEEM more easily. Naturally, the intentional mass conversion of a specific account has been significantly reduced by the need to reduce SBD balances alone.


4. Top 20 accounts based on current SBD hold balance


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As you can see in the table above, 81% (= 9.1M / 11.2M) of the SBD balance is in the top 20 accounts. Also, the exchange accounts have about 69% (= 7.7M / 11.2M)

Therefore, there is not much SBD supply balance that can be easily converted to STEEM.

However, compared to the last point, SBD balance of exchange accounts has mostly decreased. On the Bittrex Exchange alone, it was reduced by about 2M.

Therefore, as in the recent trend, the future SBD balance will likely be reduced by the decision of the individual users to pursue the profit rather than to be led by a specific person.

A recent trend was that the SBD balance generally declined during the STEEM rise. However, this is an experience at a lower price point, so it is difficult to say that it applies equally at higher prices or in the future.


5. Conclusion


① We have removed our SBD quite a bit.

We have pretty much eliminated SBD without relying on specific people. This is positive.


② It is time to reconsider the blind spot of SBD debt ratio design.

If the STEEM chain is out of the haircut state, the SBD will be issued again. If the increase in SBD supply balance can not be supported by the rise in STEEM prices, there is also the possibility that the SBD may hit the upper limit of the debt ratio again.

Therefore, it is necessary to recheck whether the design method with the upper limit of 10% of the SBD debt ratio is correct and it is time to collect many wisdom about this.


③ The future price and situation of STEEM & SBD should be watched more.

I mentioned a couple of days ago that there is a possibility of a short-term surge ahead of the resumption of STEEM deposits and withdrawals at the Bithumb Exchange and that there may be some unrelated gains to STEEM's fundamentals.

1/16 [Reasons for STEEM rise] Due to the Bithumb exchange, STEEM prices may temporarily fluctuate. Please be careful when trading.

In fact, the stock price precedes the economy.

STEEM prices may have risen in part due to expectations of STEEMIT's introduction of advertising, reduction in operating costs, and roadmap suggestions. There may also be good news that is not clear.

In addition, there was a possibility of a technical rebound in STEEM's recent uptrend despite several concerns such as full power down of STEEMIT_INC.

However, it is difficult to deny that the possibility of the resumption of STEEM deposits and withdrawals at Bithumb Exchange was the catalyst for the rise of STEEM.

In fact, not only STEEM, but coins that are reopening their wallets are rising together. Most other coins that are not related to this issue have declined a bit.

In addition, after entering the state of haircut, STEEM base price dropped about 0.06 $ (0.4 $ -> 0.34 $), and the number of STEEMs exceeded the designed inflation rate due to the temporary mass conversion of SBD. It simply means that you can not say that everything has been cured because the STEEM price has gone up and out of haircut status.

I wrote in the beginning of December that the STEEM chain needed more innovative action.

12/12 (STEEM) All we need is time? Nope. More innovative action is needed.

In fact, there are various positive changes in the STEEM chain, but there seems to be no action to overturn the essential problems. Recently, a public letter from @timcliff to Ned says he is worried that Ned is going to get worse.

1/18 Open Letter to Ned/Steemit

This situation always causes the users' minds to coexist with expectation and anxiety. The future price and situation of STEEM & SBD should be watched more.

I hope to become a better STEEM chain.


The Data and Queries


I did this analysis by connecting to the @steemsql db with MSSQL client(Microsoft SQL server management studio), Excel.

Refer to My Github


(My recently analysis)

Analysis of Voting Pattern: From posting to payout
SBD Debt Ratio Management Trend Analysis : Who removed our SBD?
(STEEM) All we need is time? Nope. More innovative action is needed.
The current (actual) inflation rate of STEEM is quite different from the design.
STEEM status and some doubt, based on account creation statistics
Proof-of-Brain or Power-of-Bid(bot), that is the question.
『Bidbot maketh patience.』

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Hi @lostmine27, great follow-up to your previous analysis!
The visualization of the SBD supply over time and especially the supply reduction in the last couple of months is very impressive. As we actually left the haircut state around a day ago and SBD is printed again, we'll see if we can stay well below the 10% cap. As you say, there is not much SBD left for conversion if this fails. Most of it at bittrex, with likely various different owners.

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[utopian-moderator]

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Thank you for your comment.

It is an interesting situation thanks to the surge in STEEM.

I am still not sure whether STEEM is completely out of the haircut state.

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Thank you for your review, @crokkon! Keep up the good work!

great post, its intersting to watch the developments since the peg didnt hold

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I agree. At present, SBD peg seem to be breathtaking as if someone is riding a snowboard on a half pipe, but it's certainly interesting to observe the flow.

Thank you. It's late, but happy new year!

I also wanted to say this was a great analysis as it provides some of the impacts of the internal economy of the protocol. Interesting to see that the haircut accelerated the conversion which itself may have been the cause. I wonder how much of the converted Steem was sold for arbitrage gain vs powering up (like I did)?

Posted using Partiko iOS

·

You said good points. Thank you.

짱짱맨 호출에 응답하여 보팅하였습니다. 즐거운 주말 보내시기를 바랍니다.

This post has been included in the latest edition of SOS Daily News - a digest of all you need to know about the State of Steem.



·

Thank you.

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