Analysis of Voting Pattern: From posting to payout

in utopian-io •  7 months ago  (edited)

Repository

https://github.com/steemit/steem

I actually checked every steemian's voting data to see when people would vote. Considering the fact that the data is vast and the voting rules have changed since the hard fork 20, it is necessary to set clear criteria, so the following criteria are applied.

It is targeted for voting from October 3, 18, to November 14, 18, which began to be influenced by hardfork20. It will also only use the votes cast in posts prior to the payout.

So, we exclude votes that were made after a payout, or that were made in comments, not posts.


Aim of Analysis


  1. The percentage of votes received within one hour of posting during the payout period

  2. The percentage of votes received within 24 hours of posting during the payout period

  3. Percentage of votes received per day after posting during the payout period

  4. Conclusion


1. The percentage of votes received within one hour of posting


How many votes will be made in an hour after posting?

0.png

As you can see in the chart above, there was a lot of voting within 1 hour after posting, including about 9.3% (based on number of votes) between 15 minutes and 20 minutes.

The accumulation is as follows.

1.png

Within 15 minutes, 18.9% of all voters have already voted, and the proportion of cumulative votes within one hour is a whopping 52.3% of the total number of votes in seven days.

In other words, if you only look at the number of votes, about 52.3% of the total will be done within one hour of posting.

2.png

The above table shows the number of votes and the proportion of each segment.


2. The percentage of votes received within 24 hours of posting


It is somewhat surprising that the number of votes cast within one hour of posting is a whopping 52.3% of the total votes cast to payout.

So what is the percentage of voting on the first posting day?

3.png

Compared to the number of intense votes in the first hour, it looks quite reduced.

However, the votes between 1 hour and 24 hours after posting seem to be distributed evenly.

The accumulation is as follows.

4.png

On the aspect of number of votes, 83.6% of the votes were cast within 24 hours.

So, between 1 hour and 24 hours after posting, about 31.3% voted.

Detailed figures are shown in the table below.

5.png


3. Percentage of votes received per day after posting


Let's check the voting pattern for seven days after posting.

6.png

As you can see in the chart above, 83.6% are already voted on the first day of posting and 6.7% are voted on the second day. Approximately 90.3% of votes were completed on the first day and the second day after posting.

3.5% on the third day and 2.3% on the fourth day.

From the 5th to the 7th day, only a very small number of votes were made at 1.2 ~ 1.4% level.

The accumulation is as follows.

7.png

Detailed figures are shown in the table below.

8.png


4. Conclusion


Within one hour after posting, about 52.3% of the votes were concentrated, and about 31.3% of votes were made until 24 hours after that.

If you look only at the number of votes, you can see that 83.6% of voting is done on the first day of posting, and most of the postings on this standard are close to one day.

Of course, because the number of curation bots who vote very little early may be affected, I think voting concentration will be more relaxed by the value of the vote, not the number of votes.
However, the number of votes in 15 minutes is only 18.9%, so the influence of curation bots will not be large.

Let's look at each day.

83.6% on the first day after posting, 90.3% cumulative by day 2, and 96.1% by day 4, which means that all votes are almost complete.

Do you feel that the overall voting data is similar to what you have experienced?

I've seen occasional discussions to reduce the payout period. In fact, the voting power recharge time, the period to recall delegation is 5 days instead of 7 days.

What do you think about the payout period?


The Data and Queries


I did this analysis by connecting to the @steemsql db with MSSQL client(Microsoft SQL server management studio)

Refer to My Github

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Hi @lostmine27, very interesting work! Quite impressive to see more than 50% of the votes by number already within the first hour, and more than 80% in the first day! I wonder how the distribution would look for votes by value? I'd assume that especially the first 15 minutes are strongly dominated by curation-oriented votes with many votes with lower values, while dApps votes with "manual" curation/moderation like utopian, steemhunt, dtube, and others, cast fewer but higher value votes typically after a couple of hours or days.

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Thank you for your kind comments.

I agree with your opinion.

Perhaps by voting value standards, the voting distribution is likely to be broader.

If possible, I will look for that data.

I hope you are always healthy and happy.

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곰돌이가 @lostmine27님의 소중한 댓글에 $0.006을 보팅해서 $0.017을 살려드리고 가요. 곰돌이가 지금까지 총 1549번 $21.103을 보팅해서 $19.207을 구했습니다. @gomdory 곰도뤼~

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Thank you for your review, @crokkon! Keep up the good work!

Interesting analysis. I believe that it is not surprising that most of voting happens during the first two days, especially on the day one.

Although filtering trails and automated votes are out of the scope that would be amazing to come with a methodology to distinguish such behaviour. Seeing that half of votes are cast in one hour is a lot to think that people also read the posts they vote for at that time.

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I agree. Thank you for your informative comment.

짱짱맨 호출에 응답하여 보팅하였습니다.

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I upvoted your contribution because to my mind your post is at least 11 SBD worth and should receive 195 votes. It's now up to the lovely Steemit community to make this come true.

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TrufflePig

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Thank you @trufflepig

Hi @lostmine27!

Your post was upvoted by @steem-ua, new Steem dApp, using UserAuthority for algorithmic post curation!
Your UA account score is currently 4.297 which ranks you at #2546 across all Steem accounts.
Your rank has improved 9 places in the last three days (old rank 2555).

In our last Algorithmic Curation Round, consisting of 255 contributions, your post is ranked at #63.

Evaluation of your UA score:
  • Some people are already following you, keep going!
  • The readers like your work!
  • Good user engagement!

Feel free to join our @steem-ua Discord server

By your analysis, it seems people still haven't realized that the curation time window was shrunk to 15 minutes.

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Thank you for your feedback.
There seems to be some such people, and curation bots seem to have increased.

It is better to reduce the curation time window by 3 or 5 minutes, and the consensus of top witnesses is also formed.

Hey, @lostmine27!

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