STEEM status and some doubt, based on account creation statistics

in utopian-io •  5 months ago

Repository

https://github.com/steemit/steem

2400.png

The daily trend of creating a STEEM account in the second half of 2018 was that large amounts of accounts were created at regular intervals. However, as I saw the opinion that it seems to be out of trend recently, I prepared the related statistics in detail.

This will give you a basic understanding of the number of STEEM account creations and their characteristics. I also present some questions I found.

The date range is from March 24, 2016, the start date of the STEEM chain, until December 21, 2018.


Aim of Analysis


  1. Basic status and key features related to account creation

  2. Some doubt about recent account creation

  3. Conclusion


1. Basic status and key features related to account creation


① Trend of daily account creation and its characteristics

2400_1.png

Looking at the daily account creation from March 24, 2016, it was initially some miners and interested people, and it started to grow gradually from mid-2017.

The cryptocurrency market boom and the PoB philosophy have created numerous accounts from late 2017 to early 2018.

After that, a fairly large number of accounts are being created, but the number of daily account creation is gradually decreasing.

2400_2.png

In 2018, the day-to-day trend is remarkable, as it has created a large number of accounts at regular intervals.


② Monthly account creation trend and its characteristics

2400_3.png

The number of monthly account creation shows a more interesting look.

Monthly account creation volume flows and monthly average STEEM prices have a similar trajectory.

This means that the STEEM chain is still being evaluated based on the number of STEEMIT community users. Though the value of STEEM Dapps can be emphasized due to the launch of SMT-Lite in the future, it is basically seen as a reason why we need to manage without losing our community base.

STEEM prices skyrocketed due to bull markets and supply shortages when there were hopes that users in the STEEM chain would surge.

On the other hand, if the growth rate of STEEM chain users seems to be stagnant or declining, the STEEM value that received premiums will be evaluated with a stricter standard.

This seems to be affecting the recent STEEM price plunge.

2400_4.png

Looking at the month-to-month, you can see that the number of account creation has continued to decline this year, except for 1/2/4.


2. Some doubt about recent account creation


When I checked the data related to account creation, I found something interesting. Once you see the chart below.

2400_5.png

The green bar is the number of accounts that have been created on that date, but have never updated their account information or cast any votes.

The blue line represents the day's share of those accounts.

As you can see from this year's data, it looks even better.

2400_6.png

Did you catch it?

Let's revisit the monthly trend below.

2401.png

The blue bar is the number of accounts that only created an account for that month and did not do anything at all, and the beige bar is the total number of accounts created for that month. The blue line represents the percentage of accounts that generate but have no sign of use.

The percentage of accounts created in March 2016 that have never been used at all is about 7% of the total accounts generated in March 2016.

Most of these accounts appear to have been created in the early days of the STEEM chain just started, but not used.

Over the next two years, the proportion of such accounts was extremely low, well below 1%. The reason for this is that once created accounts leave a trace of minimum usage. Due to the nature of the STEEM chain, we will also change profiles and vote until we stop using the account altogether. Or, there is once a deposit and withdrawal transaction.

2402.png

Since June of this year, We can see a steep increase in the number of accounts that have been created but have no sign of use. It started at 19% in June and reached a whopping 48% in November.

Even if the number of monthly account creation from June this year is not large, it is enough data because it is minimum of 15k per month and maximum of 37k per month.

Are these accounts only those users who came in via web search that they did not use after creating it in curiosity?

So why were these accounts so low for accounts created from April 2016 through May 2018?

There are 65,609 accounts with no sign of use during the entire data period. Let's look at the table below to see where these accounts were created.

2404.png

As shown in the table above, 61,143 accounts were created on the steemit platform, accounting for more than 93% of the 65,609 inactive accounts. The recovery account is 'steem'

In particular, 58,950 of the 65,609 accounts, 90% of which were concentrated since June this year, are somewhat unusual.

The Resource Credit scheme with HF20 was introduced in October.

The fact that the percentage of accounts with no sign of use has risen sharply since June makes us wonder who the actual owners of these accounts are.
.


3. Conclusion


Looking at the trend of STEEM account creation on a daily basis, it is noticeable that the trend of creating a large number of accounts at regular intervals has disappeared. Of course, it may be temporary, so you need to watch it.

Looking at monthly trends in STEEM account creation, we can see that this draws a trajectory that is quite similar to the monthly average STEEM price.

In particular, if the monthly account creation volume continues to decline, it appears to have had a significant negative impact on STEEM pricing.

This may be partly the reason we need to upgrade the STEEM chain as we grow rather than lose our current community user base.

From June 2018, a sudden and unprecedented change has occurred. The percentage of accounts that have completed creating an account but have no sign of use has surged. 19% in June, up to 48% in November. And 93% of these accounts make the recovery account steem, which means that it is an account created on the steemit platform.

In particular, 90% of these accounts are intensively created since June of this year, giving some doubt as to who the actual owners of these accounts are.

Thank you. Have a nice holiday.


The Data and Queries


I did this analysis by connecting to the @steemsql db with MSSQL client(Microsoft SQL server management studio), Excel.

Refer to My Github


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Hi @lostmine27

Thank you for you contribution.

Whilst this topic is covered in some respects through other sources on a frequent basis, I found this analysis highlighting some interesting points.

Since June of this year, We can see a steep increase in the number of accounts that have been created but have no sign of use. It started at 19% in June and reached a whopping 48% in November.

It's tough to give a definitive answer on why this is, but it's possible that the constant decline in price (and lag between account creation and arrival) is enough to demotivate the new account holder not to even start 'acting' on the platform.

The boom/bust account creation cycle implies script account generation, either Steemit inc or other sources - perhaps using claimed accounts. It might be interesting to see if an analysis can be performed on this?

All in all, well presented and an interesting slice on the topic.

Thanks

Asher [CM - Analysis]

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[utopian-moderator]

·

Thank you for your review, @abh12345! Keep up the good work!

Very interesting analysis.

·

Thank you azarmadr3 :) Have a warm holiday season.

짱짱맨 호출에 응답하여 보팅하였습니다.



Merry Christmas, enjoy the vote!


@lostmine27님 곰돌이가 2.0배로 보팅해드리고 가요~! 영차~

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·

It is a good attempt. Thank you @trufflepig.

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