It has been quite a while since the STEEM blockchain entered the haircut state. STEEMIT, INC is looking for various ways to reduce costs.
Now, can we just get out of the haircut phase by just spending some time?
Aim of Analysis
Recently updated SBD debt ratio management trend
(11/19) SBD Debt Ratio Management Trend Analysis : Who removed our SBD?
Estimation of the time required for the passage of a long tunnel called a haircut phase
1) Recently updated SBD debt ratio management trend
Currently Steem's nominal feed_price is at $ 0.399, nominal SBD Debt Ratio is 10%, but assuming Steem's current real feed_price at approximately $ 0.24, the real SBD Debt Ratio is estimated at about 15.6%.
Twenty-two days ago I mentioned that despite sluggishness of Steem price, SBD was able to withstand a sustained issue, largely due to the efforts of @smooth witness.
At that time, this year, about 3 million SBDs were converted to Steem, which prevented the rise of the SBD Debt Ratio, and smooth witness were responsible for more than two-thirds of them.
I also mentioned that the SBDs, which is easily convertible at the time, are virtually exhausted, and even smooth witness has no method to solve it.
Moreover, when SBD goes into haircut state, it changes to more difficult condition because it must convert while risking loss. In response to these limitations, SBD also started to plummet.
In fact, from the time of the previous writing to the present day, the number of SBD converted in about 22 days was only about 800,000, of which smooth witness contributed only 10%(80,000 SBD).
In the end, the incineration conditions of SBD seem to be getting worse
2) Estimation of the time required for the passage of a long tunnel called a haircut phase
As for the atmosphere of major witnesses, the restructuring of STEEMIT, INC has begun, and SBD is a well designed system so that it can return to the value of US $ 1, so we just have to wait and spend time.
If the Steem price does not go down further, theoretically, if the Steem supply balance increases or the SBD supply balance decreases, the SBD Debt Ratio will eventually re-enter within 10%.
Let's estimate how long it will take to actually happen.
① Minimum time required for 10% re-entry of SBD Debt Ratio by only increasing Steem current supply balance
(Steem assumes current price maintenance and SBD supply remains unchanged, inflation is not considered)
When Steem's supply balance reaches about 478 million, SBD Debt Ratio can be adjusted to 10% again. How long does it take to get this done?
Approximately 190 million more steems will be issued than now. Assuming about 70,000 daily issuances of Steem, turnaround time should be 2,723 days or 7.5 years. Of course, this figure can vary depending on inflation. Maybe you feel this period is surprisingly long.
By the way.
Can Steem price remain unchanged while the Steem supply balance increases by 190 million?
In the meantime, the Steem value will be about 66% diluted. So, if the Steem price is not at least 66% higher than the current one, it might actually take more than 7.5 years to recapture a 10% SBD Debt Ratio.
② The minimum time required for SBD Debt Ratio to re-enter 10% simply by reducing SBD supply balance
(Steem assumes current price maintenance and Steem supply remains unchanged, inflation is not considered)
In order to set the SBD Debt Ratio to 10% by reducing the SBD supply balance, the SBD supply balance should be reduced to about 7.6 million.
We need to eliminate about 5.07 million SBDs now.
Considering that the total SBD incinerated this year is about 3.8 million, and since the burnout has become difficult due to the exhaustion of easily convertible volumes and the entry of haircuts, considering that only about 800,000 of the 22 days recently have been incinerated, It seems that it will take time. As you see table above, most of them are tied up in exchanges, so it takes more and more time to incinerate the same amount.
③ Eventually, the time required will meet at some point between the estimated time from ① and ②
In fact, the STEEM and SBD current supply balances are constantly changing, so the calculation examples in ① and ② above are assumed to be extreme.
Given STEEM's inflation, the estimated time will eventually meet at the midpoint, as in the chart above. But there are so many variables that we cannot predict the point exactly.
All we need is time? Nope. More innovative action is needed.
① What we need now is not just spending time.
We may have to wait too long to return the SBD Debt Ratio to within 10% by spending just as you are now, by increasing the STEEM supply balance, by reducing the SBD balance, or by mixing the two effects. It may even be an unrealizable goal by just passing time.
Although STEEMIT, INC has been reducing costs, it is still seen as a minimum level to maintain a longer business life.
As mentioned earlier, in fact, changing the SBD issuance regulations on the white paper by upgrading the ceiling of SBD Debt Ratio is equivalent to changing the total number of shares to be issued by a corporation, which is a crucial issue to be resolved by the shareholders' meeting.
It was not merely a problem to prescribe soldering, and these measures are piled up and eventually a haircut phase was came.
② Steem needs innovative action to improve fundamentals
It may take a very long time to stabilize the debt ratio by increasing the Steem supply balance and reducing the SBD supply balance.
So the best way is a big rise in Steem price.
This is only possible with Steem's basic fundametal and charm.
The vision of cost-effective restructuring and SMT-Lite version release for the long-term survival, stability and growth of STEEMIT, INC is a good choice.
But this is not enough,
In the end, we are in a situation where we have to dig deeper into the many factors that have reduced the Steemit community, including the SBD Debt Ratio problem, and urgently improve it.
Continuous activation of the community will increase the value of SMT.
Steem can not be positioned as a PoW value storage device like bitcoin. Steem is only a DPoS coin, so if we cannot activate the community by taking advantages of PoB. its profitability can only hit the bottom like other PoS coins.
Steem blockchain can change from now on. Now we should not simply leave the Steem blockchain to the cryptocurrency market.
Before it's too late, we must start to innovate in many of the community's issues raised by many users.
Although the Steem blockchain is a common community that participants make slowly, STEEMIT, INC still plays a central role.
Therefore, STEEMIT, INC must once again grasp the affirmations of affectionate steemians, and STEEMIT, INC and witnesses should begin innovative action at the level of reconstruction.
The departure will be from the recovery of trust of STEEMIT, INC.
Thank you. It is only temporary personal opinion.
The Data and Queries
I did this analysis by connecting to the @steemsql db with MSSQL client(Microsoft SQL server management studio), Excel.
Refer to My Github
(My recently analysis)