My Thoughts and Theory on Steem Price Sustainability

in #steem3 years ago (edited)

It has come to my attention that some people may have slightly miss interpreted some of my points last night on @pennsif's amazing radio show!

What a group of people in the discord, from the presenter, to the guest speakers, to the amazing steemians listening in who were typing at a rate never before seen (I still have rows of discord text running thought my mind). But what amazing inputs and suggestions there were from everyone!

Most importantly, its so great to see that there is a community of people who care passionately who were bought together by the likes of @llfarms to see what some of the biggest project leaders are doing on the steem blockchain.

I wanted to reiterate in a more clear way hopefully, the point I was making about creating and retaining value on the blockchain. I know that some people may have slightly mis-understood what i was saying from the jumbled words of my passionate rant, and I wanted to clarify some of those points in the video below so that people could more accurately digest them.

The main point is that value in must be greater than value out and that value must be captured and retained in the price of the STEEM token if we are to have sustainable growth. In the video I go through the following points:

  • 00:00 Basic Culture Shift for Sustainable Steem Growth
  • 01:04 Speculative vs intrinsic value of the STEEM Token
  • 04:46 How to pull the price off its ass
  • 05:40 What value in to the blockchain is
  • 11:52 What value out of the blockchain is
  • 17:19 What creates the price (and coin market cap position) drops
  • 18:49 What creates price increases
  • 19:25 How a start up on steem can capture value and retain it in the steem blockchain
  • 21:30 How an existing business can capture value and retain it in the steem blockchain
  • 22:28 How a charity can capture value and retain it in the steem blockchain
  • 24:25 How a user can capture value and retain it in the steem blockchain

For those of you interested, HERE is a link to the radio show done by @pennsif last night

I hope this helps clarify how I think we can all contribute to increasing the value in the steem blockchain.

I am happy to continue the discussion in the comment and I look forward to your inputs and improvements to my theories.

Steem on!

@starkerz

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Good ideas clearly expressed.

Thank you for this good overview @starkerz I'd like to add two things.

Keeping value in the system is easier when there is something you can actually buy with STEEM. That's why I like the business model of @dstors. It gives every Steemian the possibility to unfold economic activity within the STEEM-ecosystem.
Driving the speculative perception-based value is the second thing everybody can do, blogging outside of Steem and spreading the word about the good solutions being built on Steem. Maybe this could be coordinated in some way!?

Absolutely!! Check out @share2steem!! This is the perfect app for doing this sharing outside but still being rewarded using the steem reward mechanism

And I just read about steemapps.com - exactly what is needed to drive speculative value: https://steemit.com/steem/@therealwolf/alpha-steemapps-com-the-frontpage-for-apps-on-steem

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Great points - it's so important that people in general upgrade their awareness of what Steem is, to include the understanding that it is effectively a socioeconomic system and not just a social network or a cryptocurrency. As we already discussed an app that can track the profit/loss performance level of an account somehow would be really useful. It would be difficult to create accurately though as it would require a degree of manual input to link some transactions to each account and each of those might be open to manipulation/fakery. I will look at coding something like this on steemocean asap.

One of the issues with user retention is definitely the feature development of Steem based UIs and knowing what people really need on social platforms.. We can onboard new users but to retain them they need to enjoy their experience and also consider that their experience here is preferable to Facebook etc.
I feel like I have a good understanding of that, but I don't have time or budget to build a UI - so if any UI builders want to work with me on that, I am open to it. Ultimately though, it's not so much about what any single person thinks is best - it comes down to the real world choices made by the market. Agility is therefore, key - which in turn means having a creative coding capacity that can produce new features at speed.

It would be amazing to see that change to steem ocean!! It’s a really crucial thing to see! But will need maintenance! For example we bring money into other accounts than our own at times.

Absolutely need flexibility. Decentralized systems are not convenient due to their decentralised nature. That is s true down side. If we can solve that with the steem community, we can put ourselves head and shoulders above other block chains

Yes, being able to connect transactions to accounts in ways that aren't recorded on the blockchain currently is needed. The best solution to that would be to add extra tracking ability into the blockchain directly at the blockchain level so that there would be an extra value in the accounting that tracks who the instigator of a transaction is, in cases where it isn't obvious purely from the transaction data we currently record. It would be good to have an accounting systems expert to provide a tried and tested way of handling that. I have accounting systems experience, but I am no expert in them. I could come up with a solution anyway though, I'll get to it in January most likely.

I gave a talk at the weekend about decentralising the entire world and as part of that I quickly realised that distributed systems are hugely better than decentralised systems - but more challenging to create and refine. Whoever creates the next gen distributed network for these kinds of applications will be onto a huge evolution.

@cryptocreator is a finance expert and I’m sure has expert knowledge in these systems

@cryptocreator is a finance expert and I’m sure has expert knowledge in these systems

I think some of the things that have been said here @starkerz excellent, everything usually has to have a middle point, a balanced system, the most important thing to apply it, that the community understands it and in unity it sustains, I think at the beginning steemit, I had a great vision, we have to recover it.

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Absolutely!!

The core problem .... Steemit Inc owning around 80 mil of steem, and selling huge amounts every week and months.

We can kill our self thinking and it would not corect this. Maybe it is even better the price to go down even lower.... and they sell it all. So, then the community can rebuild this place on solid ground with no single point of faliure.

Absolutely agree. Teams should be supported by revenue models where possible, not by selling steem. Unless the project is in start up phase (for the first year or so) until it is bringing profits in.

In essence, the situation is that the creators of the system are gradually selling it to the world over a few years - but not announcing this. They (and we) would be seeing a dramatically better outcome if they had formalised this and scheduled it officially in some way as other projects do.

same opinion to steemit inc.

Agreed, one could argue that the work that has been done by them but not completed should be the property of the community and should be handed over, since the community has paid for it

Amazing list you have there. That is a lot to digest. But it should become 101 for all serious Steemians. Keep it up!

Thanks @flauwy!! I am interested to hear other poeple's thoughts on how we can create a culture that helps us collectively raise the steem price and move ourselves back up the coin market cap listings

I will maybe upload a video response to this soon... but you have already said most of what I would say from the financial perspective. :)

Business 101 you need to bring more money in then u put out

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I put a 27 minute video together to say what you so succinctly said in 13 words! :)

Last year there were 250 million Steem in circulation. Now we have over 300 million. This is a 20% increase. We printed way too much SBD during the bull run. Our inflation rate is unacceptable. 25 million of that was printed in the last three months and we still have a ton more SBD we have to liquidate.

That is very interesting... how have we let this happen? I understood the inflation was 8.5%. Or was that to bring he sbd price back to 1 usd?

Say we print a bunch of SBD when Steem is $10 a coin, then the value of Steem crashes to $1 a coin. Once SBD starts getting converted into Steem we're forced to mint ten times as many Steem coins as we originally thought.

Need the ability to short sbd. That will help keep sbd at 1 usd and reduce sbd payouts. But that basically means that next time steem is high and the price drops, the communities solution is to print more steem... and there is a mechanism built in to make that happen.. well that’s pretty messed up...

Excellent presentation. The only part I would disagree with is the "everyone will power down eventually" mentality. I think this plan put forth by Dan does not include selling STEEM. I'm idealistic enough to believe we can create new mechanisms of value storage and transfer and keep that value within the community that believes in it. If the community doesn't sell, the price remains stable and can be used within the community for goods and services. The most important thing is the story we tell ourselves about the value tokens we hold. Even pieces of paper with dead people on them can be used if the story is shared by enough people.

Absolutely!! There should be a steem philosophy section where steemians can learn this stuff more readily. And people can just refer in knowing bad actors to this place to get themselves educated in the philosophy of steem

We definitely need a market place. Do u know if anyone working on such a project?

@steembay has been running successfully for quite some time. I'm surprised more people don't take advantage of it. I used it a year ago to get a silver steem coin.

Yes, I heard of this! I thought it had gone quiet like steembnb did a while ago. Do u know if they put some of their profits into steem? I’ll check it out further tomorrow

I don't know, but that's a great question.

@dstors is the latest attempt at a marketplace - it's certainly the most motivated and organised I've seen so far.

Great presentation. I loved the fact you forgot what part of it meant half way through (nicely regained though!)

On the flagging/ ethics aspect, I've started to think of flagging as a sort of voluntary tax on myself... I aim for 5-10% of my votes, which is an interesting tie in with the whole stability factor.

Flagging/ abuse fighting are aspects of steem that could be much better organised and should be publicised more I think... in fact I might make doing so my thing for 2019.

Lots to think about... I guess powering up technically adds no additional value after buying steem, although it probably has a beneficial effect in terms of boosting confidence.

Boosts confidence and in theory it should stop market crashes.... I guess that didn’t work...
flagging is so damn important! All steemians should delegate 10% of their steem (anonymously if they wish) to down voting guilds. I can’t say how important this is and some organisation is needed here. This is a great one since the organiser could Luce off the curation rewards since it is such an important function, I am sure that the community will agree to this!!

Flagging's actually quite good fun with @steemflagrewards!

As @revisesociology mentioned, @steemflagrewards is good fun! We have something of a flag camaraderie which is nice.

We plan to work out an incentive system system but, tbh, the incentive of the blockchain being cleaned of abuse and flags being rewarded is a pretty good incentive as it stands.

Still yet, think it would be right to give delegators perks that are exclusive in recognition of the vital asset they afford us to use in Anti-Abuse which is Steem Power. We're continuously polishing out bot code so it's a work in progress.

Would love to have you join our discord and join us! Check the @steemflagrewards bot comments or point for invite link.

Cheers!

this is amazing, thank you for this. you have very much nailed how the economic flow on steem should work. I am resteeming for extra visibility.

Thank u @paulag!! Much appreciated!!

Thanks Starkerz. We need a mindshift to keep Steem moving forward. If we don't figure out how to get value back into the blockchain, and jsut keeping taking it out, the well will run dry at some point! Glad to have guys like you pointing the way.

THanks @kay-leclerc! It’s people like u that make this place tick!!

I think that the best way to stabilize STEEM prices is by reducing the amount of STEEM.

Maybe profit generating businesses should be burning what they originally took from the community to cover start up costs

Economic theory: The fewer items available on the market, the higher the price.

if the project owner Steem is able to stabilize the amount of STEEM in circulation, then the STEEM price will return to normal

resteemed...this needs ot be heard...im also going to analyse my behaviour when im done with the university shinenigans once again:P

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Great topics. I will book mark this post and watch it when I have the time.

Looking at the topics, a culture shift might be accomodated by alligning the right incentives. Maybe we change the incentives that the culture will shift automatically. There is many goodwill on this platform, but it might be not enough if drive to act for the good of the platform is missing.

Thanks for laying it out so clearly! This is all necessary information.


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Thanks a lot Matt for making this loud and clear. Much needed! We need to bring more investment to the blockchain. Period. It will increase the value of our token over time.

To listen to the audio version of this article click on the play image.

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Thanks @starkerz - this makes so much sense and how you lay it out it's made very comprehensible. I'll let it ponder for a bit but this message needs to get out and be repeated over and over again. I'll first try to extract the things I am doing now that might be in line with or work against what you said in the video.

Thanks for recording it! :-) Cheers!

@soyrosa, I doubt u need to change anything apart from ensuring that this message gets to new steemians ;) u are clearly a highly active, well respected menever of this community

Hehe - thanks for the nice words @starkerz! I love Steem so it's an easy 'job' ;-) I'll get the message out whenever/wherever I can, that's a promise!

Steem can't sustain its reward pool.
And now Ned disappeared somewhere. I'll wait for the news before buying back.
Well, I don't really care about steem token right now, just came to wish a good Christmas to you)

Thanks @yaan! Hope u have a nice chilled out Christmas too!

Checking this out now! :) (this is @dreemsteem on my SpunkeeMonkee account) just left you a message in the SOS discord! :)

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