POLL: The Hardfork Poll

in #steem9 years ago

 

Are we going to the moon again? And will you powerdown?

Please vote for the option you are considering

I predicted 2 days ago that we will see a price of 28cents on 6th december, this has come true. It was just a lucky guess. To be able to see what will happen in one week (the first new rate Power downs will than hit the market) please vote for one of the options in comments!

Will you hold Steem ???

I am blogging about the following topics :

ABOUT ME: Some insides into my Steemit life  

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I have been buying since $4 and as low as .11 (last week). I just bought some more Steem and anything earned will all be powered up. I have actually exceeded several of my goals as far as amount of STEEM POWER, but It seems I desire more. I have a long term view for and of Steemit, but Steemit and the community continue to innovate. This experiment continues to leave me in awe. Many great things to come from this social experience.
Full $teem ahead!

great to hear your steemit story. I agree and I have not powered down before and I am trying to hit the magic 100.000 sp number next week!

It's like you are my mirror image. I have done exactly the same. Bought at 4$ and also @ all time low. It seems we also ended up with a similar amount of SP. Funny.

;) yeah. agree that in the long run I hope we both end up rich ;)

😎🤓👍🏼🙏🏽

I have grown fond of this place and I would like it to succeed! Not sure if not powering down will help with this but it might send a positive signal! nice poll, I am curious about the results!

indeed, my feeling is that most people are not powering down or will use the old rate.

No., I will not power down. My experiences here on steemit are positive. I learned many things every day. I met interesting people. Steemit has a stunning future. I invested some money and earned some. I got pretty good support by dolphins and whales. My post were read and sometimes commented and discussed.
So why should I power down my 5407 SP??

true ! that 5000 sp could be worth 500K in 10 years. who know ?

whats your reason for holding the sp

i believe its in my benefit to hold my steem power for the moment....maybe later i will PD but definitely not now...

agreee. I wont use the new rate to power down

Hodl for the long term. I'll power down at a dollar perhaps.

But not for too long.

thanks for your participation in the poll. yes 1 $ sounds tempting for a power down

I ain't powering down!! I did a bit before to raise some cash for steemfest but no more, I am holding on to my ha'penny as they say in Scotland. Viva la hardfork!!

Viva la noche @meesterboom :P
I mean ..la fiesta - is that Scottish I thought Spanish?:P

Haha, it's close enough!!! Viva la fiesta!!! Si si!!

I will power down at both the old rate and the new rate simultaneously. I will break the blockchain.

YES I WILL POWER DOWN AT THE NEW RATE!

i guess im the only one that'll be selling... ill have the market cornered.

I think more people will choose to sell. selling might be the smart play, the price will eventuelly come down bbefore going up again.

I'll be powering down once a month or so to recoup server costs if needed to supplement the liquid STEEM payouts witnesses will receive. Preferably I'd have some left over to power up actually but we'll have to see where the prices go.

agree. for a witness it is important to power down and sell when the price is high and hold when the price is low. I would even say sell it all when the price is going higher and re-buy if the price is going down

I've not been powering down for a while now.

The prices were a factor for sure. But also because I had enough set aside that I made from earlier posts to float my many servers. Very interested to see where the price goes from here.

Either way I'm in it for the long haul and will retain as much SP as I can. Feels good to be able to upvote and reward peoples posts. :)

true. with my sp it is great to see that I can now again give an average of 50cents once a post has hit 10$ before my vote.. that feels good

was thinking about this discussion yesterday night, and it occurred to me that there is actually a fourth option you didnt consider.

Power down and hold liquid steem. People doing this actually would have the same effect on price as those remaining powered up.

For a lot of people (like me for example), even if i deicded not to sell, i would rather have my money available to use if i wanted to.

With steem power no longer offering a significant amount of interest, and the inflation rate kept way down, holding liquid steem is no longer automatically a bad choice -- especially if you don't have the time or inclination to curate

agree! we might see some people holding steem and re-acting quickly to rising prices

Not only did you forget about those who may power down but not sell...you also forgot about those who previously wouldn't buy steem to begin with (due to hyper-inflation) but now will.

Also, much of your analysis seems to assume that everyone who begins powering down next week will continue to do so weekly. But with weekly powerdowns now 8X the size, I think many people will opt to power down 1 week at a time only periodically, perhaps once every 4 to 8 weeks.

My personal take on the people outside of steem who clutched their pearls and wrung their hands at the super high inflation rate was that they didnt like the idea of steem/steemit for a variety of reasons, and were hanging their hat on the inflation rate because inflation is sort of a weird crypto/btc fetish. (i once had a big BTC enthusiast earnestly tell me that BTC was better than gold as an investment, because the number of BTC that could be created was fixed, while new gold would be created forever inside of stars in space)

Which is to say, i don't believe that there are a significant number of people out there for whom the rate of inflation is the one singular thing thats keeping them away. I could be wrong though(i think the whole "inflation" issue is nonsense from top to bottom)...

Great point re: the pre-fork hyperinflation inhibiting buyers. Two things that concerned me the most as a STEEM investor:

  1. Ridiculous inflation, so, as a long term investor in the project, i would power up, but...
  2. The old power down schedule sucked and made me hold off buying in bigger earlier on.

I'm now uninhibitedly bullish STEEM :)

No, I won't Power Down.
I gave this 2 years to work and I'm tenacious (stubborn) lol

It may be that I got it wrong when I first arrive here... I thought we were locked in for 2 years and I thought that was acceptable. Because of that, since I realised I got it wrong, I decided to stick to my original method and give it the 2 years anyway - I have nothing to lose :)

No I will not power down unless we hit some crazy high number. Steemit has only begun! Less than 6 months old and its growing rapidly. We can easily hit a the $4 again with the Steem inflation only 9% a year.

Inasmuch as money supply effects price, the only inflation that matters is the inflation of liquid steem (the steem that people can actually buy and sell). The inflation of SP that they are curtailing effects that indirectly, but for at least a year or so, we are actually going to see more liquid steem on the market than we would otherwise, not less.

How much more depends on how many people hold vs power down. If everyone powering down at the old rate switches over and does so at the old rate, it will be a very significant amount more.

So there's a ton more steem on the market, and demand is stunted by declining quality of content, and the fact that we just defaulted on our obligations to SP holders.

im all for optimism, but what many people don't seem to get is that unjustified optimism hurts the platform.

you are are right but after steemfest I tend to believe that there is a chance for steem. the price going up aagin to the mmon is not gooth either

Definitely powering down. I just don't see the incentive to hold at this point, especially not in steem power.

I think it could go as high as .50 next week, prior to the new powerdowns. Especially since there arent likely to be any powerdowns at all (since people who arent synched up will restart) and rewards are going down. I picked up like 5K more when it hit .10 and 50 is my sell point for them. A big part of our fortunes are going to be based on what BTC does to SBD

After the new powerdowns start to hit, though, I see a rapid decline. Unless way more people hold than seems very likely. Id expect us to be between .10 and .20 come christmas and somewhere around .05 by new year.

I think the bottom is going to come somewhere in q2 2017, and i expect it to be somewhere significantly below 1 cent.

I think itll be possible (though not certain) to come back from, but i just can't imagine any way to get around having to get there before a bounce.

I agree partly. I think we will even go higher than .50 and than the price will start going down to the levels we see now. as most supply is controlled by steemit inc (employees founders etc) I dont see more steem hitting the market . everybody will wait before selling out on the next moon phasse

50c is a big psychological resistance point, especially coming off like 10c just a few weeks ago. I think if we could make it this week for like a month, it could potentially break through, but it might be a hard nut to crack in just a week.

As to the amount of steem hitting the market, think of it this way. If 75% fewer people (weighted by steem power, obv ) continue to power down after the HF, thats still twice as much new steem hitting the markets every week. And 75% less seems pretty optimistic to me.

All that said, i don't think a really big sell off and a really low bottom price is necessarily a bad thing. It will give serious investors a chance to achieve parity, and maybe even improve content.

dont forget that ned and dan stopped powering down for 3 month now. I think that we will only know once they start powering down again!

my prediction is we will break the 50cents within this week

Yeah, not sure if that includes the steemit account or not. ANd also not sure how i feel about that (though they pretty much were obliged to). In a way, i think it would be better, long term, to just rip the bandaid off as quickly as possible.

TBH, i actually think that breaking 50c in the this week would be bad in both the medium term and the long term.

In the medium term, the bigger the gains we have right now, the bigger the immediate bounceback is once more steem starts hitting the market. If steem goes up to 50 or 60 or whatever now, then quickly back down to the high teens low 20s once the powerdowns start to hit, its very possible that many will view that adjustment as the starting gun for a race to the door -- the signal that all the whales (at least the ones who arent pledged not to) are powering down and selling so i had better too before the price tanks completely.

If it continues to hold in the mid-higs 20s now, then bounces to the high-teens low 20s level when the new powerdowns start to hit, i think people will be more willing to hold and give the currency a chance to appriciate in value before they sell.

agree. but I think we will see a pump close to 45-50cents range end of this week.

With the new release items in place . We need to hold some time to see better results

agree. that might be a good idea

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