What does the Brexit really mean? For the rest of us.
This is an invitation to debate for anyone from the EU and/or UK.
I am an American and I confess to being completely ignorant as to the internal politics of any other country.
Yet I am considering expatriating over the coming decade and one place I had seriously considered was the EU. Now I find myself re-examining my options.
The only opinion I have, is formed by the history that I know, here in the good 'ol USA.
When the USA was founded, it was originally 13 independent "nations states" who federated together in order to provide for the common defense. Each state elected representatives to a bicameral legislature, who's job was to create laws for the common good. By common good, this was supposed to be limited to issues between the individual states themselves. This is the origin of the "commerce clause" of our constitution.
This commerce clause as well as the supremacy clause has been horribly abused to the point that it allows the Federal government to assert supremacy in matters that ought to belong to the states themselves, i.e. internal affairs of state. What we have now is but a shadow of what once was. Yet it is inarguable, that this has also resulted in what for a time was the greatest economic super power on earth. Whether that is good or evil is for our great grandchildren to decide. Right now though it is crumbling in slow motion.
The debate over states rights vs supremacy lead to our very own "Brexit", originally by South Carolina in 1860, followed quickly by 10 other states. This was at a time when there were only 33 states. Thus 1/3rd of the country left to found the CSA.
This quickly lead to the war of Northern/Southern Aggression, also known as the War of Freedom or the Civil War depending on who's side you're reading.
While ostensibly being about slavery, the truth is that this war was actually the rights of the individual states to self determination. Several states were freeing their slaves already, they viewed the Emancipation Proclamation as usurping their rights. But history is always written by the victors.
I don't know that it will come to war for the EU like it did for the USA. What I do know, is that I'm hearing disturbing echos of history and I wonder if the same drums of war are being beaten again, this time coming from your side of the pond.
I hope that the quotes above are taken out of context. That somehow they are the product of mistranslation or media spin. I cannot find anything on the internet which is unbiased in regard to the situation going on over there.
Obviously the source of those quotes is extremely biased. But I implore you, if those quotes are found to be real; please make sure to remove people like that from power, as soon as they are found out. These are the kind of people who will never let go their power. People like this will stop at nothing to keep in place, that which made them and will only ever seek to expand their power through whatever means are made available to them.
People who think like this will burn the world to cinder so that they can rule the ashes.
Sic semper tyrannis?
This of course is the worst of all possible outcomes. I don't know enough about the politics and sense of nationalism over there to make a decision about what becomes of an EU sans UK, nor what becomes of the UK sans the EU. I'm tired of google games and I hope that my 300+ friends and 75k future friends will tell me their opinion from their side without fear.
Thanks!
p.s. No matter where you're from I'm interested in your viewpoint as well. But please, keep it on topic and be respectful.
Well when Britain joined in 1973, it was meant to be purely a trading block - you know, no tarrifs, NAFTA was modelled on the original EEC.
What has happened is not similar to the American situation.
A better analogy would be if NAFTA suddenly became a federation - and without referendums, it is all agreed behind closed doors by "elites". When people have referendums saying "no", like the French and Dutch did over the Constitution Treaty, they just repackaged the exact same thing and forced it through as an amendment to existing treaties, which magically didn't require referendums (because supposedly "only" an amendment!).
Anyway - suppose this NAFTA monster is gaining all sorts of power, without the consent of voters. It starts to topple elected govts (see the way the Pappandreau govt in Greece and the Berlosconi govt in Italy were toppled by the EU, and unelected eurocrats (who were all ex-Goldman Sachs) were appointed Prime Minister. Even where there have been elections, like the Syriza govt in Greece, Brussels attitude was "how dare you defy us", and the ECB, which is a central bank that is supposed to have the duty of keeping banks open, shut down the Greek banks, in order to force the elected Greek govt to cave to Brussels (which they did).
In Ireland, the ECB over-reached itself again, sending threatening letters to the irish govt forcing them to do a bank bailout. The bailout was so big they needed IMF help, and of course austerity. The whole of the Eurozone benefitted from that bailout, but only the Irish taxpayers have to bear the brunt of the cost. At least with the bailout in the USA, the whole nation bore the cost, it wasn't just loaded all onto Conneticut. Americans complain about the Fed -but when was the last time the Fed threatened a state and said they'd close down their banks if they didn't enact certain policies (which should be up to the legislators not the central bank)?
The Irish govt now has to submit it's budget to Germany for inspection before they announce it to the Dail and the Irish people. Does Texas have to submit it's budget to New York first before it announces it?
Oh and did I mention confiscating savings? That's what happened to Cyprus without warning. They hadn't even done anything wrong - they had lent Greeve money, but the EU suddenly changed the rules on them.
So suppose you had this NAFTA monster, it is ignoring basic democracy, unelected authoritarians are running mad, there is no accountability at all.
Britain, which had refused to be part of the euro, thought, "You know what, we didn't fight a World War to be forced to submit to crap like this, we're out of here".
The EU is trying to make Brexit as hard as possible. The thinking is "we must punish them, so others arn't tempted to leave". A bit like the Soviet Union, right? If you need threats to make people stay, you have a crappy set-up. Britain isn't afraid though - not much frightens us after all this time.
update: @aenor I'm following you now. The above is a great comment, but you also made a reply further down, too deep for me to reply to. I found it insightful and pertinent, and so I upvoted it as well
So clearly you are pro-brexit. Which is cool, I'm all for self determination. Do really think the EU will let you leave without war?
The other side of the coin for those of you in the EU proper... How do you guys really feel about the UK leaving?
Do you think they should be able to leave if they want, or does the UK belong with the EU, even when times are tough?
Example, I would be truly hurt if my spouse decided to leave me, just because it was tough or even impossible to make ends meet. Even if it were only "until we could get up on our feet". Not sure I would stop her though. I might even do what I could to help her get into a better situation with whatever we had left.
But I think deep inside myself, I would be hurt that she didn't stay and try to tough it out.
To my mind, a federal government like the USA or the EU, is one giant marriage and separation and divorce can get messy.
Yup. We have a nuclear weapon and a permanent seat on the UN Security council.
Further, most Europeans skimp on their defence believing that someone else will defend them. At the moment, while the EU is trying to "punish" us, they're also begging us to send troops and planes to patrol the airspace of eastern europe which is being breached by unauthorised Russian aircraft. Sort of "We'e going to punish you, but please can you help us". You couldn't make it up.
So they are allied for the common defense, so long as the UK pays the bills?
Also I had no idea the UK had nukes. When per chance did the UK come into those?
Got our nukes in 1947 as well. Lots was happening that year!
I would say you've got more to worry about with your elections- God help the world if Hiliary get in .....England out best thing for the country
Well and now you know the reason I would like to expatriate. No matter who wins the election this year, we all lose. Hilary, Trump it doesn't matter we're pretty much doomed. I've opened a short position on USD, but short into what? The GBP is all a mess right now, and the Euro isn't looking so hot either.
The MXN peso is a disaster area right now. (great if you're an american living in mexico though I suppose)
Anyways, my question was more about the politics of power. Will the UK be the only one to exit, and really will the EU let them?
England leaving the EU in my opinion was the best descion they made , they have opened the door for the rest of the EU to follow should they wish- this struggle has been going on since the 2008 financial crash ( the bankrupcy) and it was only a matter of time for one of them to exit. England is showing a big increase in the service sector income and jobs. England has a fighting chance being the first to leave and will lead, based on their success, for others to follow such as Italy, Spain Portgual Ireland -all speaking about referendum, and possibly even France one of the founding members. An opinion being muted on the alternative TV news is that the EU has become a 'failed experiement' - The next few months are going to be interesting ...
Personally, I voted to stay, but fewer agreed with me than they did the other option and so we have to accept the democratic decision of the country and make the best of it and I think we will.
Your very own Abe Lincoln said:
Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, give him power.
Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
Lord Acton
And finally:
Those who seek power are not worthy of that power.
Plato
Yet we keep voting for them.
I'm a Brit and I don't like politics - which is odd indeed because I stood for election (and won) and represented my area in County Council for four years.
I promised only one thing as I canvassed the electorate. I promised to do my best. I am a politician that kept all my promises because I kept it to one - keep it simple, stupid :)
The unfortunate thing with politics of late is that it seems some people have become 'career politicians' and look at the position as one of power and a way of lining the pockets of themselves and their 'buddies'.
At one time, being a local Councillor was done with the best intentions, with benefit for the town being topmost in their priorities.
What a shame those days seem to be done.
And our very own John Wilkes Booth said
"Sic semper tyrannis"
Just sayin, neither belligerent in a war is innocent.
People forget that Lincoln suspended due process and habeus corpus, essentially castratring the constitution in the process. He also violated the constitution by authorizing the printing of currency that could not be backed by specie as was mandated in the constitution. Doing this allowed the North to muster more resources than they otherwise had, at the expense of generations who had to repay that debt.
For what it's worth, you've got my vote!
update: bah, this comment and the one above were supposed to be a single comment directed @michelle.gent however something went weird with the post and update mechanism
my post gives a good example of why brexit is good
https://steemit.com/brexit/@cryp/post-brexit-pound-value-drop-is-actually-good
Well ok, your premise is that the dollar value drop of GBP was good because it causes Americans to buy UK made products.
You can devalue your currency without leaving the EU, you just print more of it.
China does this all the time and it's one reason why they have become the manufacturing capital of the world.
When a country does this, it harms the people who hold rely on that currency to feed themselves and their families and strictly favors the businesses that are doing foreign trade. It mostly harms businesses that are bringing local products to a local market. Although it can help them in the long term, because this does make foreign imports a tad more expensive.
China softens the blow to their citizens, by having an internal and an external currency. The external currency when devalued does not flood the local market. It is instead sent to the US where they buy "future dollars" via the process of holding treasury bonds. This is where we get the myth, that we owe some debt to China we can never repay.
Sure we can, we just issue Tbills with a negative interest rate, and convert existing bonds at maturity.
Yes there will be less dollars, but each one will be far more valuable.
This undoes some of the damage to our own economy that the we have allowed the chinese to do to us by devaluing their currency, while still technically having a "preferred trading partner" status, despite china buying essentially no US made goods.
We can only do that while the US Dollar remains the world's reserve currency though.
my premise is not to flood the UK market as the cause of devaluation. but just that the EXTERNAL markets are devalued. again not flooding the local markets. so it has nothing to do with 'printing more' nor should it. britains ecomomy actually improved with the dollar devaluation and that had nothing to do with 'printing more'. which is what my article stated.
No you misread what I'm saying.
I realize that you view the GBP dropping against the dollar on the external markets as a good thing.
I don't disagree with that.
I also acknowledge that you are correct that it was not the result of printing more money.
My point was that currencies go up and down in value. The world responded to the UK leaving, by devaluing the currency. This is in part because the world viewed the UK involvement in the European Common Market as a very important part of the longterm value of the GBP.
People who "hold money to make money" have no priced in UK sans EU (hopefully), and the UK can move forward with whatever.
Totally agree on this.
However, if the UK just wanted to make it's exports more attractive, they could have just devalued their currency on their own. Nations have the right to determine how much of their currency they choose to circulate, and in a truly open, global and free economy. This is how sovereign nations control the wealth of their citizens. For good or evil. Printing and burning cash, are what nations do once they adopt a central banking system.
It's not so much what they do that is the problem, but who is in control of those systems and what are their motives?
Perhaps a better way to put it is as a simple question.
Does the Crown own the Bank of England, or does the Bank of England own the Crown?
The Bank of England was nationalised in 1947 - it's owned by the British taxpayer and is accountable to Parliament, and the Treasury appoints all the top personnel.
It's an interesting topic for sure and lots of confusion and noise going on to distract from what's actually happening. It's increasingly difficult to isolate any topic of EU/UK from geopolitics and multinational interests. NATO is a constant aggressor towards the east. I have heard the elites all moving down south, because the northern hemisphere is getting increasingly messy, digging it's own grave. There are so many levels here at play I just can't express it in words. My only thing I can only insist. Decentralize! Decentralize! Why? Because only if we can't be divided, because devision is our status quo, we can't be conquered! Easy peasy! ;)
@alechahn Thank goodness you replied my old friend!
I was hoping for your opinion as a literal child of both sides.
You also have a child born to three different worlds, all of which are rapidly succumbing to internal turmoil. I wonder for her sake, as well as my own progeny...
What ground will we leave them to stand upon? Will it be a solid foundation they can build their own future with? Or will it be mire and blood, mixed with ash and ground to dust? All for the sake of those we have allowed to seek, attain and keep power over us?
As I was writing this, I wondered how this played out in your mind, and figured a blockchain would be the best place to have the discussion. This way, 100 years from now, all our children can look back and know what we believed, what we honestly hoped would come of it all. Without having to look back through the eyes of the victors, whatever side that may be.
The decision was a bit of surprise to me but I think it should make it more difficult for UK to attract investments because the perception that this nation join the "party" and can leave any time. Also, I think the EU strength is also somewhat weaken with this decision bring a risk that other EU nations can undo the join too. just my $0.02 worth.
I hope that you're right.
As I said in a previous post. The EU has been making some really bad decisions for countries within the EU lately, but they also seem to be trying to extend their reach beyond their sovereign borders and into matters that have been settled for a long time.
My example of the recent ruling by the ECJ, that linking to content without the authors consent constitutes copyright infringement. However the EU appears to be trying to also pass a law that will require search engines to compensate websites for indexing of content. If that were to pass then what would most likely happen is that the entire EU would be delisted.
That could do serious harm to the European economy.
I don't think the UK will have any problem in attracting investment, especially as the £ (Pound) dropped against most currencies after Brexit. The UK is looking like a very good investment right now.
Having said that, I'm learning more about cryptocurrency - hedging my bets ;)
I watch the news on the political situations in both GB and USA. Clearly USA is headed toward disaster if any of the presidential candidates come to power.
I was an isolated (among my friends) supporter of Brexit if for no other reason than I despise the control of globalism. I was made to feel like a racist for my views. @aenor comment is fantastic, as it made sense of a feeling.
Since 2008, from which we are still recovering as a business, I have watched the world slide further into chaos. Over the same period, increasing numbers of South Africans have emigrated, mostly due to crime and limited economic opportunities. This has never been an option for us, as we have business skills specific to our country.
And I'm glad. I think that those of us who stay here are tougher, more vigilant and flexible in adapting to new circumstances, which are going to be vital skills in what I see as the inevitable "collapse". The world is teetering on the edge, and just as it took a relatively insignificant assasination to spark WWI, our spark is coming.
In Africa we are "away" from the centre of the action. And to my mind that can only be a good thing.
As for the African Union, it is something I don't hear about whatsoever. I don't watch local news, as I know it is purely government propaganda, maybe it is mentioned there? African countries in reality would nevet be able to work together, mainly because of tribalism.
Lastly, we have very few natural disasters in South Africa!!!
It's a shame you were made to feel like a racist because of your support for Brexit.
It got very messy coming up to the election but I did notice one thing: not those all in favour of Brexit are racist, but all racists are in favour of Brexit.
I also think a great deal of those racists are left feeling frustrated because:
a) they thought we'd be out of the EU the day after the election result was declared
b) the immigration 'problem' would cease and desist on the same day.
(Sorry to sideline your debate @williambanks)
@michelle.gent good observation
:)