Season 2017-2018 Week 12 Results | 9W-8L-3P | +509€ Profit

costanza (69)in #money • 7 years ago (edited)

This is a weekly overview of my personal handicapping and live betting results on teams from the Belgian Jupiler League with some insights on my overall approach.
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Another week that produced some nice profit despite making plenty of mistakes. Volume and stakes were on the low side this week. Pinnacle still not offering corner handicap bets really has a negative impact on my overall amount of bets. The pre-game odds are being set quite sharp these days so I'm forced to keep stakes low. I hit another 5.0+ odds bet this week which was insane value and provided all the profit.

Starting off with what was good this week. The situational spot I'm looking for each week of betting a late counter goal by backing the over along with the team that is ahead came through big in the Mechelen vs Lokeren match. Mechelen were pushing all 2nd half and created plenty of scoring opportunities. This produced an over 1.5 @ 2.61 and -0.25 @ 5.17 line on Lokeren late in the match at 0-1 score around minute 82. Sure enough Lokeren scored the 0-2 on a counter for a double winner. I also had some on the pre-game under bet as suggested in the weekly Roundup which made this match good for 1304€ Profit. This is a good example on how being willing to lose by taking higher odds really makes a difference.

There was a another great situational spot this week in the match between Waasland and Kortrijk. whenever there is pre-game money on the over and a boring 1st half, value is likely on the 2nd half over.. This is exactly what happened in this match. The over line went from O 2.75 @ 1.86 to Over 3 @ 1.94 pre game and the first half was not all that exciting which resulted in a 2H O 1.5 @ 2.11 line. Knowing that about 57% of goals are scored in 2nd half and Waasland are on my 2H over list this was a good spot. It's always tricky to bet against the picture that match has shown so far (which I why I made the mistake not betting this bigger), but often time this changes during the match and betting wise you don't want to be in a spot where you bet the over in an overish match at obviously adjusted odds to the situation just to see things slow down.

Onto all the mistakes I made now. When you bet Live, you need to be able to pull the trigger very fast which sometimes leads to poor bets. Always having a pre-game live betting plan when going into a match helps. Some of the bets I probably should not have taken. AA Gent vs Eupen 1H U 1 @ 2.56. With the odds overly adjusted on the over which made it unlikely for my plan to take that around the 20th minute I hoped to be able to 1H middle instead around that time. The first goal came quickly after my bet and 2 more followed at the end of the 1st half. I don't know what I was thinking but I also took some on Eupen +1.25 @ 2.04 after 1-0. Both were minimum bets and lost 360€.

A lot of money came in on Genk this week which I ended up fading both pre-game and Live. Not betting against big money flow without specific news is something I will talk about in my "betting wisdom series". You pretty much go against sharp money. I ended up taking Club Brugge +0 @ 2.26 believing Genk got a bit overrated too early after a faltering win against a poor Anderlecht side. Genk dominated the 1st half but I still took some extra on the +0.25 @ 1.87 right at the moment things slowed down and there was an important injury for Genk. Before HT the deserved 1-0 came. Club Brugge were better in the 2nd half but did not manage to make a comeback. Going against obvious sharp money cost me 480€. This lesson at the same time saved me money by staying away from betting on Moeskroen who lost 1-0.

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Week 12 Results 20 Bets | 09W-08L-03P | Staked 3805€ | +509€ Profit

Season 2017-2018 Results

344 Bets | 172W-121L-51P | Staked 70258€ | +8919€ Profit | +12.69% ROI

Let me know in the comments how your predictions came through!

#investing #gambling #sports #blog

7 years ago in #money by costanza (69)

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braveboat (61) 7 years ago

Great recap of your bets. I appreciate the thought process you use to analyze yourself honestly. That can be really tough in the betting business.

I enjoy live bets but I'm not sure it's been overall a positive for me. Do you have an idea how well you do with live bets versus pre-match lines?

Oh, and I very much appreciate the sprinkles of soccer betting knowledge you leave in these posts. So much more to think about for this novice...

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costanza (69) 7 years ago

Thanks braveboat!

As for expected profit goes, Corner bets > Live Bets > Pre-game bets.
Pre-match bets are more difficult to beat and I'm down slightly on them this season. (took only 55 bets so doesn't say that much)

Good to hear you see the value in these posts and insights!

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cheapogroovo (54) 7 years ago

Today's plays are St. Pauli vs Erzgebirge Aue OVER 1.5 matched with Twente vs Excelsior OVER 2.5

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cheapogroovo (54) 7 years ago

POW another winner

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minnowbooster (73) 7 years ago

Calling @originalworks :)
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Nice, you got a 10.0% @minnowbooster upgoat, thanks to @costanza
Want a boost? Minnowbooster's got your back!