Season 2017-2018 Week 11 Results | 12W-09L-07P | +407€ Profit

costanza (69)in #money • 7 years ago (edited)

This is a weekly overview of my personal handicapping and livebetting results on teams from the Belgian Jupiler League with some insights on my overall approach.

Pinnacle did not offer corner handicap lines this week which decreased my overall volume and limted me from exploiting similar spots to week 9. Routine seems to be kicking in right now after the upswing and everything seems easy which is dangerous. There are mid-week matches this week and I plan to step up things a bit looking for some new angles and patterns.

It was another week with profit but it could have been more if I listened to my own advice. First there was the Eupen vs Mechelen match which I talked about in my weekly league Roundups

week 9
Eupen still seem to start their matches defensively and open up later in the match which often gives crazy scores. Late goals are the betting option I will be looking for live.

Week 10
I talked about how Eupen starts matches defensively and took the Under 1.25 line pre game with an eye to possibly middle live. The first 29 minutes did bring so little that I bailed on my plan and ended up losing the bet. Betting Big odds over line live around 20th minute when still 0-0 in Eupen matches regardless play will be my plan from now on.

So I ended up bailing on my plan again as the match was actually quite open from the start which kept to odds on the lower side. Making predictions is easy, buy when it comes down to actually pulling the trigger and putting money in things often get much more complicated. The first goal came at minute 36' followed by 3 more before Half Time. Should have taken it but didn't and next match I will likely face the exact same dilemma. I did get in a bit on the late over which delivered

The one where I did put a lot of faith on to come trough were the Antwerp notes

Week 9
They have excellent mentality and there tend to be a many goals when they get behind.

Week 10
I still expect them to count on their defense in away matches. Once it breaks this should open the doors for plenty of more goals and potential late overs.

Being 1-0 down away against a top team and an Over 2.5 @ 1.97 line at half time was too good to pass on with an option to bet more later on when it stayed 1-0. Near the end I cost averaged some more bets on Club Brugge -0.25 and Over 1.5 but the goal did not fall this time and brought the biggest losing spot of the weekend.

Waasland-Beveren notes were spot.

Week 10
I still see them as an overall undervalued team and will mainly be looking to back them as the outright winner when they are a big underdog since they have the potential to win against any of the teams in the league. Overs in 2nd half are also still high on my betting list.

I ended up betting some on that big outright underdog win @ 5.50 but failed to pull the trigger on the 2 half over as the market was on to it and gave trough to my feelings of not being willing to lose taking abit on the middle to guarantee profit for the week since it was the last match. Being willing to lose taking really big odds with solid reasonings and proper bankroll management over time should always bring profit.

Betting Graph week 11.jpg

Week 11 Results 28 Bets | 12W-09L-07P | Staked 5727€ | +407€ Profit

Season 2017-2018 Results

324 Bets | 163W-113L-48P | Staked 66452€ | +8409€ Profit | +12.65% ROI

Let me know in the comments how your betting week was!

#investing #gambling #sports #soccer

7 years ago in #money by costanza (69)

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decebal2dac (62) 7 years ago

first time I read your report, can't stop but wonder why you are not using bookies that accept crypto, better odds as well.

$0.77

2 votes

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costanza (69) 7 years ago

I'm using a betting broker that automatically takes the best odds at serious asian books and exchanges. (pinnacle/SBO/IBC/ISN/Betfair/Matchbook/bdaq). I'm not able to use any of the joke bookmakers (bet365 and such all other traditional 1x2 books) since I'm limited at all of them. As for crypto books, I'm using nitrogensports as a way to selectively use my crypto to bet. They do have slight lower odds compared to pinnacle and don't offer live betting.

If you can point me to a reliable bookmaker that offers better odds and allows winners please let me know, I'll switch right away.

$0.36

1 vote

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decebal2dac (62) 7 years ago

https://1xbit.com/ looks to have all the features, but I am a bit disjointed about their bonus system, although they offer 1 btc it can take quite a while to get there..
http://vitalbet.com would be my favorite because of the limited options with an emphasis on asian handicap.. I am curious what's your opinion on these :D

$0.84

2 votes

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costanza (69) 7 years ago

I looked into 1xbit, website itself looks nice and they even offer dutch language.
The odds they offer don't come close to what my broker offers
Antwerp vs Standard match Over 2.25 which is the bet I'm looking at

Book	Over 2.25 Odds	Under 2.25 Odds
My Broker	1.86	2.067
1xbit	1.76	2.04
Vitalbet	No Offer	No Offer
Nitrogensports	No Offer	No Offer
-	Over 2.5 Odds	Under 2.5 Odds
My Broker	2.11	1.83
1xbit	2.02	1.775
Vitalbet	2.09	1.72
Nitrogensports	2.093	1.791

I don't know how 1xbit and vitalbet set their odds (unlike nitrogensports who just copy pinnacle with slight higher juice). I'm looking for some more bitcoin only sportsbooks to use who work in a similar way to regular 1x2 books since they can easily de exploited.

Main issue is reputation and reliability. Nitrogensports gets B+ rating on SBR which is very solid. Both 1xbit and vitalbet are not reviewed on SBR and get very mixed reviews and seems to be referred to as a scam sometimes. 1xbit vitalbet

I've looked at sportsbet.io also as an alternate option, but they rarely rival the bets prices.

$0.00

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