Season 2017-2018 Week 8 Results | 16W-15L-10P | -82€ Loss
I talked last week how big upswings often tend to be followed by a drop back because a change in mindset. This did not happen and it pretty much turned out in a break even week. Being able to avoid losses is sometimes equally important to actually winning something. There was a lot of action with the mid-week Cup matches resulting in 41 bets. My average bet size is also increasing because I've been taking less minimum stake bets and more small or flat sized bets. My bankroll management has been on the very conservative side and I will be reviewing it this week and maybe move up in stakes a bit. I also plan to write a post about bankroll management in general.
There was one really intersting betting angle this week which produced an excellent bet in the Racing Genk vs Oostende match. Whenever there is a coach change for a team in the relegation zone, expect the new coach to thighten up the defense first! This is exactly what Custovic did with Oostende as they started with an extremely defensive approach while. Under 1 @ 2.29 1st Half bet was available live early in the game which ended up as a push with the 1-0 being scored on a free kick in minute 43'.
Week 8 Results 41 Bets | 16W-14L-10P | Staked 9.170€ | -82€ Loss
Week 7 Results 35 Bets | 21W-11L-03P | Staked 6.360€ | +3.354€ Profit
Week 6 Results 16 Bets | 13W-01L-02P | Staked 3.180€ | +2.251€ Profit
Week 5 Results 27 Bets | 10W-09L-08P | Staked 6.688€ | -645€ Loss
Week 4 Results 31 Bets | 11W-15L-05P | Staked 6.813€ | -1.423€ Loss
Week 3 Results 26 Bets | 11W-12L-03P | Staked 4.582€ | -861€ Loss
Week 2 Results 21 Bets | 12W-08L-01P | Staked 3.787€ | +714€ Profit
Week 1 Results 29 Bets | 15W-13L-01P | Staked 4.903€ | +1.091€ Profit
Season 2017-2018 Results
226 Bets | 109W-84L-33P | Staked 54.653€ | +4.399€ Profit | +8.05% ROI
Great job keep it up.
Have you looked at Kelly Staking? I find it very good for calculating stakes when finding value across a wide variation of odds from shorts to long shots.
I have looked into the Kelly Criterion in the past. The thing I get stuck on is that it's quite impossible to make exact estimations. The huge value spots are rare these days and making profit has become more about grinding it out. I also place 100+ bets each week which makes kelly complicated. I am used to flatbetting which has worked for me over the years. I tend to avoid lower 1.8- odds who usually have lower value and higher 3.0+ odds who bring along much higher variance. My records show better ROI on 2.3+ odds, so betting those also flat can in a way be compared to kelly.
It is interesting though and I do realise I put my current comfort situation above trying to maximise my returns. The risk vs reward and quality vs quantity questions are one of the more difficult in betting imo.
Kelly Staking is interesting but without tools it does take a bit of extra calculation. I am very similar to you in that I have a comfort zone and am loathe to bet anything under about 1.70 but I do sometimes take long odds and I use the principle of Kelly Staking when I do. Long odds do give you greater variance but if your stake is lower then it does smooth out your results. I sometimes use The Geeks Toy to trade in-play on Betfair and there is a staking mode there based on Payout where basically your stake is auto-calculated by dividing your set payout amount by your odds. For instance if your Payout value is set at $100, then at 2.00 odds you are betting $50 and at 5.00 odds you are betting $20 and at 10.00 odds you are betting $10. It works pretty well for me and I've found great value at long odds and not been punished for over-staking them.
Terrific angle on the Oostende match. I don't bet on much soccer, but this was a cool insight. Following you to support the gambling tag on Steemit! Cheers!
I agree with you ! I am also not a fan of soccer ! Cool !