12/17/2017 The Market View and Trading Outlook

Bitcoin, Bitcoin, Bitcoin, when will the world stop doubting you? While I come off bearish in many of my analysis, the reality is that I am neither bear nor bull; I’m transbearullish. That is not to say that I am the Caitlyn Jenner of crypotcurrency, but that I switch hit based upon what the charts are telling me. Cryptocurrency trading is probably one of the most exciting and challenging assets to successfully trade consistently for profit. There is so much knowledge you must master, so many subtle nuances, bear traps, bull traps, pit falls, market manipulation, and wild swings that run contrary to what the technical indicators say will happen. It really is the wild wild west of trading, and to me with a long history of traditional stock trading, cryptocurrency is stock trading at 120 x regular speed.

Ok onto the good stuff. Why did Bitcoin go up 12 percent in the last 3 days? Honestly who the fuck knows, it goes up because it goes up and people buy it because it goes up. It does not go up as a result of its ability to solve a problem, or because it’s quarterly earnings reports reflect rock solid leadership from its board of directors and increasing market share. It simply goes up because people believe in it and buy more of it, because it goes up. That aside, it still honors the charts and the historic pattern of the human greed/fear cycle.

As to why it recently went up yet again; well look at my previous analysis for the answer there. Directly prior to the introduction of futures it was trending down, had a glorious battle at $13,000, held the line and trended back up toward $15,000 where it once again lost momentum and was heading back down. At around the $14,800 mark the futures market came in and boosted us back up for a bit and then we started to trend back down. Basically Bitcoin was ranging up and down and in so doing shed off a great many of the weak holders and allowed the indicators to catch up. Three days ago in my analysis I stated that I was bullish as Bitcoin had eliminated the divergence on the 1 day chart and actually had a small amount of negative divergence between the 12 hour MACD and Signal line.

That said my longer term BTC view is still very bullish (we are correcting from a new high at this exact point in time) at this point as the 1 day has us oversold, with little divergence to the upside. Moral of the story, we are going up again in a big way at some point soon; likely $22,000 -$25,000 per coin; glad I bought those at $300 in 2015 :). That is the story of the 12 hour and 1 day charts. As for the longer term 3 day and 1 week charts, we are still overbought with extreme upside divergence. What this means is that when the Bears finally take control they are going to have momentum on their side and the wind at their backs to crash the price 60 percent or more.
When that will occur I do not know, but I would not say for at least another couple weeks. The charts always have to be honored and the price will always succumb to the desires of the 3 day and 1 week chart at some point, that at this point want BTC to go down. The only way out of a massive crash is to find a price point and stick to it for a prolonged period of time allowing the moving averages to catch up and the indicators to smooth out. What the price is, I have no idea, or if that will be the way it will play out, I again have no idea but will go by what the shorter time frames tell me will occur.

So where are we right now? Cooling off for a day or so to either trade flat or make another large run up. If the Bulls hold on we should run down to $18,200-$18,800 before making another run up. Once the BTC 4 and 6 hour charts go red either today or tomorrow expect ETH and LTC to begin gaining some momentum upwards. Then as BTC rounds the corner in the $18,000’s on the way back up expect extreme volatility in ETH and LTC as they will most likely be coming off of new highs or price points very close to their old ones of $780 and $420 respectively. That said if BTC dives quick to correct expect it to pull Alts down as well presenting good buying opportunities around $700 and $300 for ETH and LTC; maybe a little higher, but they have held these support levels quite well. Again this is crytpo so it could sky rocket or all go to shit on a moments notice, set stops, be careful, don't go in to deep..

Ethereum @ $720

I’m a bargain shopper so for me this is not a buy, although I know it will be going up. I sold at $670, bought back at $560, sold at $770, bought back at $630 which I am holding onto now. Had I not of made those moves, I would be buying cautiously right now on the dips. The charts are somewhat confusing at the moment, the 1 day is trending down in a big way, while the 12 hour is about to round the corner towards positive territory. In reality both ETH & LTC are powder kegs waiting to explode upwards. Buyers are hungry for both, investors want a profit and crypto traders traditionally lack patience. What we need is a few big buyers to start the frenzy. This will not happen till BTC begins trending down or trading sideways at which point a multimillion dollar buyer or buyers will step in and throw some gas on the ETH and LTC fire and we will be off to the races for 20 percent or better gains. At current, buy cautiously, set some stops. I consider this to be the gathering point right now, consolidation plain and simple before the next big move. Will ETH take off before LTC or will LTC take the lead I’m not sure.

Litecoin @ $420

I’m not going into much depth here as the story with LTC is the same as ETH right now. They are both consolidating and both primed to explode upwards. We are all just waiting for the big buyers to step in and stoke the flames. Which will go up first ETH or LTC? I have no idea, but I will be on the side of the one that starts the run, ride it to the top, get off and jump on the other one. Money cannot be in two places at one time, so only one will explode per day in most cases, it will then settle out and the other one will follow suit. Last time LTC took the lead and jumped 250+ percent from $100 to $420. I think that it may be ETH this time as its run was cut short by the BTC rally starting at $17,100. I think ETH has $850 plus in the gas tank and maybe as high as $1500 at some point. Regardless, buy both cautiously, have stops and be ready to get off the bus at the top and switch teams.

Previous Analysis:

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-15-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-12-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-11-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/5ceniq-12-9-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-9-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook