The recent rise in STEEM prices may have been driven by Tanos' thumb.

in utopian-io •  24 days ago

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Repository

https://github.com/steemit/steem

Apart from the confusing STEEM internal circumstances, the recent rise in STEEM prices was steep. It had risen from 0.25 $ to 0.4 $ in one week. During this period, BTC prices were flat.

The reason for this rise is somewhat unclear, but it may be interpreted positively as a process that reflects expectations for improvements in STEEM in the future.

But Dorothy Parker made this remark.

"If you want to know what God thinks of money, just look at the people he gave it to."

Let's apply Dorothy's maxim to current STEEM.

To see STEEM's future policy lines, look at @freedom to whom he voted for his 9M_SP.

Likewise, if you want to know the reason for the recent rise in STEEM prices, you can look at the STEEM flow of key accounts related to the reopening of STEEM wallets at Bithumb Exchange.

So I actually tracked the STEEM inflows / outflows of key accounts that seem to be highly relevant to this rise.

After reviewing the data for all periods first, I made this report mainly by using data from January 13, 2019, when STEEM started steep price increases. All references are based on January 23 at 17:30 UTC.

Of course, it is only a private and temporary view.


Contents of analysis


  1. STEEM inflows / outflows to related key accounts
    @upbitsteemhot
    @bithumb.live
    ③ Other accounts : @s7eem-6i7humb, @bithumb.sunshine, @bithumb.hot

  2. Conclusion


1. STEEM inflows / outflows to related key accounts


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Prior to the text, it is necessary to check where STEEM is primarily trading.

The above coinmarketcap data is based on the 24-hour trading volume, with 66% of South Korea's Upbit and 20% of Bithumb, with a market share of at least 86% in Korea. (In fact, some Koreans even use binance, bittrex, and poloniex.)

This is a routine phenomenon, and now in Korea, Upbit is the most active place in STEEM trading.


① STEEM inflows / outflows of @upbitsteemhot(2019-01-13~2019-01-23)

Before Bithumb reopens its STEEM wallet, you should first check the STEEM flow in the most active STEEM market, Upbit.

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About 16M of STEEM was transferred to @upbitsteemhot account during this period (Jan.13 ~ Jan.23), among which 8.8M from @bittrex came in.

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By the way, 8.8M STEEM came in with only one transfer on January 21st.

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According to data from @penguinpablo, Bittrex's STEEM balance has increased by about 9M from the second half of last year. Of course this is not important.

The important thing is that someone has transferred 8.8M STEEM from Bittrex to @Upbitsteemhot account.

There was also a cumulative 3M transfer from @upbitsteemhot to @bittrex during the same period.


② STEEM inflows / outflows of @bithumb.live(2019-01-13~2019-01-23)

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Look for more interesting deals. @bithumb.live is a new account created by the Bithumb Exchange for reopening STEEM wallets. Also @s7eem-6i7humb is same.

In the past they used @bithumb.hot, @bithumb.sunshine.

As you can see in the table above, most of the STEEMs moved from @upbitsteemhot to @bithumb.live are estimated to be in Bithumb internal quantities.

Their STEEM, which went into @ bithumb.live, was mostly transferred back to their another account @s7eem-6i7humb. The name of the @s7eem-6i7humb account is too difficult. Maybe it looks like Bithumb did not want to inform about it.

Eventually, at least 9M's STEEM seems to have completely swept the Bittrex, Upbit and Bithumb exchanges by people who can use Bithumb's internal accounts.


③ Other accounts (All periods): @s7eem-6i7humb, @bithumb.sunshine, @bithumb.hot

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@s7eem-6i7humb is definitely an internal Bithumb account. @s7eem-6i7humb has received a 1.5M STEEM transfer from @bithumb.sunshine used by Bithumb in the past.

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Please see the table above for the STEEM flow history of @ bithumb.sunshine, @bithumb.hot. It is not an important part.


2. Conclusion


Are you still not sure why the recent rise in STEEM prices?

Occasionally, it's good to think of "Occam's razor" in a seemingly complicated phenomenon. It is also called "the principle of economy," which means to choose the simplest one.

You can get a hint from the STEEM flow of key accounts related to Bithumb's reopening of STEEM wallets. These accounts are discussed above.

To summarize,

Approximately min 9M of STEEM(max 12M) travels Bittrex, Upbit and Bithumb,

and STEEM prices were managed,

and the quantity was again stored in Bittrex and Bithumb accounts (@s7eem-6i7hum, @bithumb.live).

I analyzed the short-term performance of several coins that Bithumb resumed and found that the STEEM price hike for this event was likely to be temporary, and the liquidity STEEM I bought under the event - driven strategy sold all over the $ 0.4.

Of course, after confirming the movements of the major accounts involved, I repurchased some STEEM and then sold it again.

In the long run, it seems appropriate that the STEEM market will eventually be driven by fundamentals. Of course, STEEM can do just as stock prices proceed the economy.

The recent rise in STEEM prices may have been driven by Tanos' thumb.

You will have a rough idea of ​​who Tanos is here.

His thumb probably seems to be resting now, but you still need to keep an eye on the flow, because those accounts have a lot of reserves.

Thank you.

※ All investment decisions are at your own risk.


The Data and Queries


I did this analysis by connecting to the @steemsql db with MSSQL client(Microsoft SQL server management studio), Excel.

Refer to My Github


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Hi @lostmine27

Thanks as always for contributing to @utopian-io.

A different approach and subject area this time with quite a lot of investigation and hypothesis. Did I miss the analysis titled 'The Hunt for Red October' somewhere? :D

I appreciate the effort in combining Steem blockchain data with an external data source, and there is certainly plenty of detail to the work.

As a whole, I would politely suggest that the scope is quite limited in that their are few accounts involved, and that the presentation lacks in some areas making the contribution not an ideal fit for utopian, but certainly of some interest to various parties.

Thanks again

Asher [CM - Analysis]

Your contribution has been evaluated according to Utopian policies and guidelines, as well as a predefined set of questions pertaining to the category.

To view those questions and the relevant answers related to your post, click here.


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·

Great comment. I thought so too. :)

I plan to look for a fresher topic.

Thanks to you, I was able to find the movie '' The Hunt for Red October ''. I enjoy the history study at the usual break time. Even though the content of the movie was fiction, it was especially worth watching. (I have often posted a lot of interesting history in Korean.)

Enjoy your valuable time.

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Thank you for your review, @abh12345! Keep up the good work!

Steem hovered from rank #27 on the market cap to rank #33 for almost the entire year that I've been here.

We dip down to #52 and then ask why we've bumped up to #40?
We were oversold because of the FUD.
The FUD is dying down.
Mystery solved.

I did enjoy this analysis though. Good job. :D

<3 Korea

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I do not enjoy fud or conspiracy theories, and always do a fundamentally based analysis.

This article is a result of aggregating transfer data from the actual STEEM chain, even though it raises questions about who Tanos is.

Thank you for your comment. Have a nice day. :)

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Much appreciated.

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Thank you.

IMO, since this issue has been finalized, STEEM prices may gradually stabilize downward,

Then, in the long run, the STEEM price will flow between the recent efforts to improve STEEM and the signals of concern such as the full power down of STEEMIT_INC, at a moderate price, based on the appropriate level of fundamentals.

But there are always many variables.

Thanks for keeping us informed here as it has definitely been a ride! It will be interesting to see what is done with these balances after the arbitrage opportunities are no longer viable. Will they remain at exchanges or come back to be staked? I find it interesting how so many have remained on exchanges despite the bad risk management of doing so (except Steemit Inc’s scenario).

Posted using Partiko iOS

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Cryptocurrency In order for the market to mature, the abnormal behavior of exchanges should be improved quickly. Of course it is not easy.

Thank you.

Thanks for the analysis. The million steem question is definitely "who is Tanos".

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Tanos, who created this situation, personally estimates it is probably (Bi)thumb.

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