Short-term price outlook for STEEM ( Based on an analysis of the short-term growth rate of all coins that Bithumb has recently resumed deposits and withdrawals or is about to resume)

in steem •  last year  (edited)

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1-16 [Reasons for STEEM rise] Due to the Bithumb exchange, STEEM prices may temporarily fluctuate. Please be careful when trading.

1-21 The Bithumb exchange resumes the deposit and withdrawal of STEEM. (Jan 22 at 08:00 UTC)


Short-term price outlook for STEEM


※ This is not an investment advisory, but a temporary personal opinion. All investment decisions are at your own risk. In particular, note that this article is not a careful analysis based on long-term data, but rather an event-driven analysis based on short-term data and intuition.

All data is based on coinmarketcap and viewed on January 21 at 04:00 UTC.

Divide the coins into three types as shown in the table below to see the highest rate of growth and the current rate of growth, and compare them to the market cap and individual peculiarities of the coins.

4800.png


1) Coins that Bithumb completed the reopening 5 days ago (STRAT, AE, WAX, GTO)


4801.png

STRAT is up 45%, now 20%, AE is up 49%, now 21%. Both coins have a market cap similar to STEEM.

WAX is up 55%, now up 13%, GTO is up 72%, now up 30%. The market cap of both coins is much smaller than STEEM.


2) Coins that Bithumb completed the reopening 3 days ago (ADA, REP, SNT, POWR, PAY, ETHOS)


4802.png

ADA, which has a market cap nine times higher than STEEM, is up 18%, now 8%.

SNT is up 45%, now 32%. Market cap is a little smaller than STEEM.

POWR is up by 83%, now up 60%. Market cap is much smaller than STEEM.

PAY is up 206% and is currently up 193%. Market cap is much smaller than STEEM, but Bithumb is currently offering a cash prize event to top rankers based on PAY trading volume.
ETHOS is up 212%, now 117%, but the market cap is very small compared to STEEM.

The REP is up 142% and is now rising 109%. The market cap has increased again than that of STEEM. It is a coin to consider that there has been a relatively excessive fall in recent months.


3) Coins to be resumed (CMT, HC, VET, STEEM, LRC)


4803.png

Schedule for resumption: January 22, 08:00 (UTC)

STEEM is up 65%, now 62%. The market cap is about 124M.

LRC is up 91%, now 80%. Market cap is less than half of STEEM.

VET, which is twice the market cap compared to STEEM, is at least 15%, now rising 9%.

CMT up 33%, now up 33%, HC up 16%, now -10%. HC is about twice as early as the beginning of the year, so it is not doing well despite this event. Also both coins have a small market cap compared to STEEM.

The features of the above three coins (CMT, HC, VET) are not listed on Bittrex. Bittrex and Korea's Upbit are affiliated, so coins listed on Bittrex are easy to trade arbitrage with Bithumb in Korea.

Of course, even if it is listed only in Binance, arbitrage trading is possible, but for Koreans, the risk of arbitrage trading becomes very high in terms of the delay in deposits and withdrawals of coins.


4) So, how does STEEM's short-term price flow?


Now, to see the short-term price trend of STEEM, we look at the whole table again.

4800.png

As the market cap of STRAT, AE and SNT is similar to STEEM and listed on Upbit, I personally notice how these coins have risen since Bithumb opened its wallet again. Current growth rate of STRAT and AE is 20% and SNT is 30%.

STEEM has started to rebound from $ 0.25 due to this issue and may be more fluctuate. Bithumb reopened the wallets of several coins sequentially, and by the end of the re-opening of STEEM's wallet, there was enough time to rise relatively. Of course, other factors may have worked together.

However, I carefully guess that STEEM will stabilize at around $ 0.30 to $ 0.35 within one week of reopening Bithumb's wallet.

After that, STEEM will fluctuate in the long term depending on the market situation and its own fundamentals.

Of course, there are many variables. Due to the nature of the coin market, regulations on exchanges are weak, so it is possible to manage the price as much as the market cap is low.

In addition, STEEM may have difficulty gauging long-term fundamentals due to various issues such as STINC's full power down, and there may be hidden good news.

Therefore, although Bithumb's wallet reopening issue alone has predicted the short-term price trend of STEEM, we should actually consider the variables discussed above.

In particular, this article is not a careful analysis based on long-term data. It is the main purpose of understanding the event-driven situation of Bithumb's reopening of wallets through short-term and intuitive analysis through the above table. Estimates of price flows are only incidental results.

Thank you. :)


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Interesting analysis! Thanks for the details as it put some sense behind the recent moves. Incredible to think one exchange can move the prices so much.

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  ·  last year (edited)

Yes, of course, other factors may be working in combination.

But look at the STEEM trading volume today as belows.

4811.png

STEEM trades at about 81% in Korea's Upbit and is a significant volume compared to the recent average

Major coins did not rise at all during this period.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/steem/#markets

Over the past few days, I think Bithumb has announced that it will resume its wallet, causing many speculators to get stimulated to trade STEEM in Upbit. Therefore, before the re-opening of the wallet, much of the preliminary reflection has been completed.

Of course, I also earned money.

Once the STEEM price stabilizes again, it will eventually move in line with its long-term fundamentals.

Thank you.

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  ·  last year (edited)

This post has been included in the latest edition of SOS Daily News - a digest of all you need to know about the State of Steem.