Market Development Definitely On Track!

First, I would say that the test went really well. For a market that is so new, the Steem Monster game by @yabapmatt and @aggroed has many active participants. There are already normal participants that you will find in any good market. I managed to do well over 100 steem in transactions during the week and I was very pleased with the ease of which I was able to transact business (on both sides).

4 Main Market Particpants Developing Already

There are investors that have hoarded many cards early, leveled up, and are ready to do battle and hope to win some serious prizes.

There are speculators that have bought either packs or particular cards trying to make some money off of the market movement.

There are players that have bought packs simply to play the game when it is ready in September.

And finally, surprisingly there are market makers (like me) that are trying to provide a regular market to give reasonable price discovery.

Development Analysis

The large investors were the first to develop. The speed with which they scooped up cards to get the highest levels was truly amazing to witness. For the most part i would say the large investors are hodl'ers and those investments will be around until at least they see how well the game takes hold over the longer term.

The speculators were there too, but in a smaller degree. I have found very few that had unrealistic expectations to "flip" their cards at a quick profit. There may have been some when the gold versions came out, but by and large I would say the speculators haven't been a factor in this market too much at this time.

The players have been coming in a steady fashion. Every day I notice new signups to the server and very high adoption rates when people learn about it. Their is a genuine excitement developing about not only the gameplay, but also in developing the storyline and even marketing the game outside of Steemit. I think this is very healthy and a good indication of long term demand.

The market makers are very new and most are just providing a one-sided market (ie they are either giving a buy price or a sell price, but rarely both). This is helpful though because all of us together are providing some depth to the market and enhancing price discovery. The prices have really narrowed and I think the addition of the "official" market exchange later will be accepted well since many of the market makers are already getting their feet wet.

Two Significant Stats

There are roughly 1000 different owners of the cards and they have bought roughly 50,000 booster packs total. Of course like in everything else, the top 50 have been the volume buyers so its not like each player has bought 50 packs.

Considering the fact that a) the game cards are only a few weeks old and b) the gameplay won't even start til September, I would say that this game is going to be a big winner! A lot will depend on how the other aspects evolve of course, but judging by the execution of the initial design and features, I am extremely encouraged.

The Market Developed During The Week

I started out with a typical 1 x 2 market price, meaning that my buy price (bid) was 1/2 of the initial sell price (offer). I initially went with the commons as they had much more volume available and gradually added rares, and epics too. I found that even though the market was a bit all over the place the first few days, that during the week everyone coalesced and we all ended the week with some pretty tight prices. Note: this was my goal

To give you an example: I started out with the commons at $0.03 sbd bid and $0.06 sbd offer. I ended this week at $0.0325 sbd bid and $0.05 sbd offer. That means that both the buyers and sellers are now getting a better price (and no haggling needed).

As a quick take, I found that many of the main sellers and buyers all unconsciously moved towards each other and almost everyone was near my prices. In the beginning of the week I was normally the lowest priced seller and mostly the only regular posted seller, but by the end of the week there were regular offers to sell cheaper than me and offers to buy higher than me. That is a good sign and means that there is a healthy competition and true price discovery going on.

My Current Market Pricing

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Selling Commons $0.05 sbd or $0.039 steem
Buying Commons $0.0325 sbd or $0.025 steem
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Selling Rare Monsters $0.275 sbd or $0.21 steem (except Silvershield Paladin)
Buying Rare Monsters $0.15 sbd or $0.114 steem
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Now Selling Epics $0.60 sbd or $0.45 steem
Now Buying Epics $0.32 sbd or $0.25 steem
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Analysis Of The Market

As a financial professional for my entire career I tend to look at the movements of prices and try to learn things from patterns that develop. I will give my opinion as to what I have seen develop due to the activities I either participated in or witnessed.

I think the market is healthy. There was an initial rush of demand as the game was introduced and people rushed to "buy". This led to a bit of euphoria and marginal demand was higher in the beginning that it is right now. This is normal when something is new, especially with no formal market makers to handle the initial surge of demand. So I think the market settled down during the week and the prices have become a little soft for the moment.

In the long run, these lower prices will be good as it gives others a chance to buy in at reasonable prices. Right now the individual components are trading less than the value of a pack. That means that you can assemble a very good set of cards for less than if you bought packs. This is a normal market mechanism that will encourage demand for the individual cards and also draw in new players as the cost to field a team got much cheaper.

Over time what should develop is that this current softness will bottom out and we will experience a flattening of the market until such time as the initial gameplay seems imminent. I would also expect a slight bump in pricing when the actual gameplay rules for the individual cards comes out, ie some cards will be sought after for their perceived powers and people can start to pick their strategies too. But the big surge should happen as people start to anticipate the tournaments starting. Nothing like the chance to earn some real money (steem/sbd) to get the competitive juices flowing.

So to sum up, I think the prices are going to be in a bit of a lull for the next few weeks as the market absorbs the initial surge in supply. I also think this is a wonderful chance to get involved in the purchase of individual cards as the sellers will eventually dry up and new demand will continue to come in all the time. In my opinion, this is a classical example of the calm before the storm. When the tournaments start, then people will wish they had used this time and price softness to add to their decks and build at these cheap levels.

Disclaimer

Please note, these are just my observations and opinions. I certainly think the main way people should look at Steem Monsters is as a game. It is meant as something to have fun with and enjoy. It is a strategy game, not a retirement plan. So while I discuss pricing and fluctuations, they are meant to reflect the cost of entry. Like with any game, I try to get the most value for the money I am dedicating to it. So the same concept applies here!

I hope this write-up was helpful and feel free to ask me any questions. I welcome any comments and questions!