Betting Strategy | Bankroll ManagementsteemCreated with Sketch.

in money •  2 years ago  (edited)

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The overall Bankroll Management approach I have had the past 15 years as a sports bettor has become something I trust blindly and follow almost religiously. It allowed me to grow from an initial tiny investment and kept me from going broke in times where I was no longer profitable allowing me the needed time to step up my game.

Most people who get into sports betting are blinded by potential short term profit which often makes it a matter of time before they lose it all blaming it on bad luck. Having a long term plan and sticking to it can be an extremely powerful tool to beat bookmakers. The basic idea my bankroll management has been based on the past 15 years is the following

If you manage to beat the market with +3% ROI betting on average 11 bets each day and do this for 10 years, the compound interest using this bankroll management would grow 80€ to over 41.000.000€

There is off course a big gap between the theory and actually being able to do this. (Skill, Variance, Betting Limits, Living Expenses,...) The theory does instantly show the potential when you think about sports betting in the long run though. It can shift you focus towards just beating the market without having to worry about anything else.


Thinking in Units

Having a proper bankroll management plan helps you to think in units. One of the reasons most sports bettors apply very destructive bankroll management and go broke eventually is because they want to win a lot with a tiny bankroll and think in euro or dollars. Switching to a mindset from thinking in currency to units and approach it as an investment instead of a way to gamble is essential in becoming a winning player. Thinking in units also helps a lot when stakes get higher avoiding poor decision making because of scared money.

Making Personal Adjustments

The basic idea of betting 1.25% while moving up in stakes after growing 25% allows for personal adjustment depending on a lot of variables.

Volume

Quality vs Quantity is a very difficult question to answer when it comes down to sports betting. One thing is for sure though, you need a big sample size to overcome short variance.

Low Volume
Being more selective with your bets can increase your overall ROI, but is does not really change the short term luck that is involved with betting. If you look at the bigger picture, when you take only 20 bets each month, this will become a 10.000 bet sample eventually. The fact that this is happens over an exponential longer time does not mean you can adjust your stakes exponentially. I believe everything above 1.5% is an unacceptable high risk regardless how low the amount of bets your have.

High Volume
It is possible to have 3000+ bets with a profit expectation in the course of a month. Betting those at 1.25% flat would practically be impossible because you can at max bet 80 at one given time. The rule I have when it comes down to higher volume is that you should never have more than 33% of your bankroll at risk at once. Let's say you have 80 units at risk and go on a crazy -50 unit downswing (believe me they happen). All of a sudden you lost over 60% of your bankroll without having had the chance to adjust your stakes and move down.

Variable Staking

While flat betting is easy, it might not always be optimal. The 1.25% can be seen as a full flat stake and you can use variable stakes around that number based on odds, volume, expected edge. This model is mainly based on 1.80-2.5 type odds. Winning players tend to avoid lower odds and higer odds can be bet "to win flat stake" instead of "to risk flat stake"

Risk

You can change your numbers based on the risk you are willing to take. I am using some of my bitcoin holdings as a betting bankroll. I slightly changed the basic bankroll management idea to make it all less risky. Very low volume with only 10-40 bets each month while only taking them with 1% flat stakes.

Online / Offline Bankroll Ratio

You generally don't need to have your entire bankroll online on your bookmakers to take all the bets you want. When having a long term approach in betting, a big part of your bankroll is like a pillow to fall on in case things go really bad. Instead of letting it just sit in the bank, it can be responsibly invested into the stock or cryptocurrency market. When this comes along with an increaded risk (crypto), betting stakes should be lowered some to compensate. It is important that the offline funds in the end are committed towards sports betting, you should never count money that you are not willing to lose in your bankroll management.


Moving Up Table

BankrollStakesProfit Target
0.080 BTC0.00100 BTC0.0200 BTC
0.100 BTC0.00125 BTC0.0250 BTC
0.125 BTC0.00160 BTC0.0350 BTC
0.160 BTC0.00200 BTC0.0400 BTC
0.200 BTC0.00250 BTC0.0500 BTC
0.250 BTC0.00320 BTC0.0700 BTC
0.320 BTC0.00400 BTC0.0800 BTC
0.400 BTC0.00500 BTC0.1000 BTC
0.500 BTC0.00640 BTC0.1400 BTC
0.640 BTC0.00800 BTC0.1600 BTC
0.800 BTC0.01000 BTC0.2000 BTC
---
1.000 BTC0.01250 BTC0.2500 BTC
1.250 BTC0.01600 BTC0.3500 BTC
1.600 BTC0.02000 BTC0.4000 BTC
2.000 BTC0.02500 BTC0.5000 BTC
2.500 BTC0.03200 BTC0.7000 BTC
3.200 BTC0.04000 BTC0.8000 BTC
4.000 BTC0.05000 BTC1.0000 BTC
5.000 BTC0.06400 BTC1.4000 BTC
6.400 BTC0.08000 BTC1.6000 BTC
8.000 BTC0.10000 BTC2.0000 BTC
---
10.00 BTC0.12500 BTC2.5000 BTC
12.50 BTC0.16000 BTC3.5000 BTC
16.00 BTC0.20000 BTC4.0000 BTC
20.00 BTC0.25000 BTC5.0000 BTC
25.00 BTC0.32000 BTC7.0000 BTC
32.00 BTC0.40000 BTC8.0000 BTC
40.00 BTC0.50000 BTC10.000 BTC
50.00 BTC0.64000 BTC14.000 BTC
64.00 BTC0.80000 BTC16.000 BTC
80.00 BTC1.00000 BTC20.000 BTC

Following this type of bankroll management has a lot of benefits. It is impossible to ever go bust this way even if you go from being a winning player to becoming a losing player. It allows for time to adjust your strategy which will be needed as the sports betting market is changing all the time and getting more difficult to beat. The ability to chase losses or go crazy on a bet also is not really possible when you commit to your bankroll management. At the same time the growth potential when having a positive expected value is insane. With 11 bets on average each day and a +3% expected ROI, it takes 2 months to increase your bankroll by 25% and move up in stakes. At the lower levels this may seem slow, but once you are able to move up towards the higher levels it is actually insane.

Having this bankroll management for me is extremely liberating and it allows me to just focus on being profitable without having to worry about anything else. I can honestly say that I am looking forward to losing 100k in a single day while using this kind of bankroll management since this would mean that I could actually handle it financially.


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Lot of good advice here. Level stakes is the most common staking for pros but I was happy to see you put a bit in there for "to win flat stake" to cover those bets that can be found with value at longer odds.

Really interesting man. To be honest at first didn't 100% understand it but with the graphs it definitely made a lot more sense. Eye opening that's for sure.

Yes, it's quite crazy when you actually run the numbers.
Having 300+ bets each month that average +3% ROI without withdrawing anything is the difficult part.

Same for poker. By playing with 20-30 buy-ins behind you, you eliminate the risk of going broke. Once you fall below the minimum buy ins on hand, you move down in stakes to preserve your bankroll.

Great advice that allows players to keep on playing even during the prolonged downswings that are apt to occur.

Cheers!

It is very similar to poker indeed!

The interesting difference with sports betting is that the difficulty remains somewhat similar with higher stakes. This also means that you play against the phil Iveys on lower stakes.

I used to play online poker in the past, another big difference is that poker upmoves usually require a x2 stake which doubles the swings. In sports betting, this can be done more gradually.

Poker was a much more emotional roller coaster for me since it felt like working. Losing money while putting in many hours can really be brutal.

Nearly everything you do is of no importance, but it is important that you do it.

- Mahatma Gandhi

normaly everyone sure about not increasing bankroll after profits because its very open for lose steaks but since its %1.25 i think you have era for that