Betting Strategy | Bankroll Management
The overall Bankroll Management approach I have had the past 15 years as a sports bettor has become something I trust blindly and follow almost religiously. It allowed me to grow from an initial tiny investment and kept me from going broke in times where I was no longer profitable allowing me the needed time to step up my game.
Most people who get into sports betting are blinded by potential short term profit which often makes it a matter of time before they lose it all blaming it on bad luck. Having a long term plan and sticking to it can be an extremely powerful tool to beat bookmakers. The basic idea my bankroll management has been based on the past 15 years is the following
If you manage to beat the market with +3% ROI betting on average 11 bets each day and do this for 10 years, the compound interest using this bankroll management would grow 80€ to over 41.000.000€
There is off course a big gap between the theory and actually being able to do this. (Skill, Variance, Betting Limits, Living Expenses,...) The theory does instantly show the potential when you think about sports betting in the long run though. It can shift you focus towards just beating the market without having to worry about anything else.
Thinking in UnitsHaving a proper bankroll management plan helps you to think in units. One of the reasons most sports bettors apply very destructive bankroll management and go broke eventually is because they want to win a lot with a tiny bankroll and think in euro or dollars. Switching to a mindset from thinking in currency to units and approach it as an investment instead of a way to gamble is essential in becoming a winning player. Thinking in units also helps a lot when stakes get higher avoiding poor decision making because of scared money.
Making Personal AdjustmentsThe basic idea of betting 1.25% while moving up in stakes after growing 25% allows for personal adjustment depending on a lot of variables.
VolumeQuality vs Quantity is a very difficult question to answer when it comes down to sports betting. One thing is for sure though, you need a big sample size to overcome short variance.
Being more selective with your bets can increase your overall ROI, but is does not really change the short term luck that is involved with betting. If you look at the bigger picture, when you take only 20 bets each month, this will become a 10.000 bet sample eventually. The fact that this is happens over an exponential longer time does not mean you can adjust your stakes exponentially. I believe everything above 1.5% is an unacceptable high risk regardless how low the amount of bets your have.
It is possible to have 3000+ bets with a profit expectation in the course of a month. Betting those at 1.25% flat would practically be impossible because you can at max bet 80 at one given time. The rule I have when it comes down to higher volume is that you should never have more than 33% of your bankroll at risk at once. Let's say you have 80 units at risk and go on a crazy -50 unit downswing (believe me they happen). All of a sudden you lost over 60% of your bankroll without having had the chance to adjust your stakes and move down.
Variable StakingWhile flat betting is easy, it might not always be optimal. The 1.25% can be seen as a full flat stake and you can use variable stakes around that number based on odds, volume, expected edge. This model is mainly based on 1.80-2.5 type odds. Winning players tend to avoid lower odds and higer odds can be bet "to win flat stake" instead of "to risk flat stake"
RiskYou can change your numbers based on the risk you are willing to take. I am using some of my bitcoin holdings as a betting bankroll. I slightly changed the basic bankroll management idea to make it all less risky. Very low volume with only 10-40 bets each month while only taking them with 1% flat stakes.
Online / Offline Bankroll RatioYou generally don't need to have your entire bankroll online on your bookmakers to take all the bets you want. When having a long term approach in betting, a big part of your bankroll is like a pillow to fall on in case things go really bad. Instead of letting it just sit in the bank, it can be responsibly invested into the stock or cryptocurrency market. When this comes along with an increaded risk (crypto), betting stakes should be lowered some to compensate. It is important that the offline funds in the end are committed towards sports betting, you should never count money that you are not willing to lose in your bankroll management.
Moving Up Table
|0.080 BTC||0.00100 BTC||0.0200 BTC|
|0.100 BTC||0.00125 BTC||0.0250 BTC|
|0.125 BTC||0.00160 BTC||0.0350 BTC|
|0.160 BTC||0.00200 BTC||0.0400 BTC|
|0.200 BTC||0.00250 BTC||0.0500 BTC|
|0.250 BTC||0.00320 BTC||0.0700 BTC|
|0.320 BTC||0.00400 BTC||0.0800 BTC|
|0.400 BTC||0.00500 BTC||0.1000 BTC|
|0.500 BTC||0.00640 BTC||0.1400 BTC|
|0.640 BTC||0.00800 BTC||0.1600 BTC|
|0.800 BTC||0.01000 BTC||0.2000 BTC|
|1.000 BTC||0.01250 BTC||0.2500 BTC|
|1.250 BTC||0.01600 BTC||0.3500 BTC|
|1.600 BTC||0.02000 BTC||0.4000 BTC|
|2.000 BTC||0.02500 BTC||0.5000 BTC|
|2.500 BTC||0.03200 BTC||0.7000 BTC|
|3.200 BTC||0.04000 BTC||0.8000 BTC|
|4.000 BTC||0.05000 BTC||1.0000 BTC|
|5.000 BTC||0.06400 BTC||1.4000 BTC|
|6.400 BTC||0.08000 BTC||1.6000 BTC|
|8.000 BTC||0.10000 BTC||2.0000 BTC|
|10.00 BTC||0.12500 BTC||2.5000 BTC|
|12.50 BTC||0.16000 BTC||3.5000 BTC|
|16.00 BTC||0.20000 BTC||4.0000 BTC|
|20.00 BTC||0.25000 BTC||5.0000 BTC|
|25.00 BTC||0.32000 BTC||7.0000 BTC|
|32.00 BTC||0.40000 BTC||8.0000 BTC|
|40.00 BTC||0.50000 BTC||10.000 BTC|
|50.00 BTC||0.64000 BTC||14.000 BTC|
|64.00 BTC||0.80000 BTC||16.000 BTC|
|80.00 BTC||1.00000 BTC||20.000 BTC|
Following this type of bankroll management has a lot of benefits. It is impossible to ever go bust this way even if you go from being a winning player to becoming a losing player. It allows for time to adjust your strategy which will be needed as the sports betting market is changing all the time and getting more difficult to beat. The ability to chase losses or go crazy on a bet also is not really possible when you commit to your bankroll management. At the same time the growth potential when having a positive expected value is insane. With 11 bets on average each day and a +3% expected ROI, it takes 2 months to increase your bankroll by 25% and move up in stakes. At the lower levels this may seem slow, but once you are able to move up towards the higher levels it is actually insane.
Having this bankroll management for me is extremely liberating and it allows me to just focus on being profitable without having to worry about anything else. I can honestly say that I am looking forward to losing 100k in a single day while using this kind of bankroll management since this would mean that I could actually handle it financially.