Steem vs USD. We are on our way to .85/USD! This could be the chance everyone has been waiting on to get some significant SP.
I'm afraid the technical indicators are really not showing any support for Steem until we experience a full retrace back to around .85/USD. Even then, there is a significant chance we could see some continued downward momentum as full fear and capitulations take over the space.
Today the RSI is still at around 40, so even if we only drop to 30 we are likely to endure another week of downward pressure. I am not expecting a reversal until below 30.
MACD is still showing a great deal of room to drop. (Until the blue line bottoms out and turns up into the red line.) This alone is showing massive downward potential below the .85/USD support line.
Last month I published this post that urged caution on getting back into BTC after the bottom was possibly in. I did not buy back in at that time due to the continued weakness in the recovery. There was no massive bounce off the bottom for many if not most of the altcoins I follow to convince me otherwise. We did see a nice reversal, but not enough to assure me that it was likely to be sustained. I have; however, continued to accumulate Steem by selling other tokens into the rally as the market allowed, via an average in program I put in place many months back.
I am looking for a continued drop in BTC at this time which will continue to put downward pressure on all ALT coins.
Interested in my track record, check out my blog starting back when BTC was just coming off its all time high of ~$20,000.
Long term, I am extremely bullish on Steem!!
I am very excited about this drop as I am very much looking forward to being able to purchase more SP at a massive discount.
Why am I so bullish??
- Nothing has changed, the accumulation of Steem and more so Steem Power, is a requirement for any serious contributor on the platform.
- Steem and SBD transfers occur on average within 3 seconds, few other tokens can claim this.
- Steem and SBD transfers have no transactions fees, this is of immense value!
- Steem can be transferred to and from any other Steemian or exchange without the requirement of a cryptographic address that cannot be remembered.
- Steem and SBD are now actively traded on multiple exchanges.
- The Steemit/Busy/dtube memberships are growing much faster than the Steem inflation rate.
- I expect Steem to retest its all time highs before year end (short of any catastrophic external inputs).
So I'm going to be all in but ..... remember, most recoveries are very complex and few just go straight back up.
Patience is the most powerful tool in your chest.
My summary
- Measured accumulations should be considered at around .85. (Possibly averaging in at a bit higher.)
- Larger accumulations are not recommended until we see at least 3 consecutive days of rise in the Steem/USD price.
Now with that said and others trying to time the market, we could of course see a ricochet off the support as the bulls are let out of the gate. That is OK with me, we're heading to the moon, so trying to time in to gain 10% but risking 50% is just not how to win the game year after year.
Don't invest more than you can loose. Steem could easily drop back down to the .29/USD support if the crypto-space does not recover from its current trend.
Hope this analysis is useful to you. Comments are very welcome.
Disclaimer -- I hold more positions in Steem every day
Invest wisely for the future.
I've been trading now for nearly 40 years, but this is just my personal opinion and should not be taken as financial advise!
@bycoleman
https://ColemanAir.us
Craig
Just a quick note:
The lower steem goes, the more tokens you are paid for every post you create, so this is the perfect time to create some great quality articles and then power up and wait for the market to find out what we already know.
More on this at: http://steem.supply/rewards
Blessings.
that's actually not accurate.
the ratio of vested steem voting and new STEEM being issued stay unchanged. The dropping price even leads to less "debt" being issued as SBD-tokens (convertible to steem). So on the bottom line the dropping price under a broken SBD peg does actually reduce the monetary inflation.
on another note... I'd absolutely welcome a sub 1$ STEEM and an accordingly dropping SBD. Under those circumstances the network could finally implement a corrected pegging mechanism for SBD tokens giving this economy and exponentially greater tool to capture market share in the crypto-verse.
You are correct, but you are missing the point I was making.
When you are paid for your comment or post. 1/2 is SBD and 1/2 is in Steem (unless you choose 100%)
The 1/2 in steem is calculated at the current market price. As steem drops, you actually get more steem tokens.
You can play with the sliders on this calculator to see what I'm pointing out.
More on this at: http://steem.supply/rewards
I very much agree with your point on the SBD peg. Not sure how well received it will be for many and the witnesses may not actually go forward with it, even though there is some support.
Really love all the feedback from someone with a lot of great insights. Thank you!
That's exactly where your misconception lies - it's the SBD which are "converted" based on the STEEM-USD-pricefeed.
a 15k vested STEEM vote results in a total of 1SP rewards. If the 50/50 option is chosen the liquid reward payout (0.5SP) will be converted to SBD based on STEEM/USD rate and under the assumption of SBD being pegged to 1USD worth of steem.
It's the SBD payout that fluctuates - SP only fluctuates base on reward-pool-balance and RShares distribution
I actually wrote about all that in more depth concerning the liquid STEEM rewards that were briefly issued due to the dropping STEEM price and resulting loss in market cap.
OK, I will need to investigate this further. I have started to read your article.
Did you play with the sliders on the calculator? Are these not accurate?
they are fairly accurate... but the shown $-values (that's also displayed under posts) is calculated in the same way and also fluctuates based on the price-feed, thus it is equally inaccurate due to the "broken" peg.
OK, I'm going to do more digging, I really want to make sure I understand this fully. I am going to review the white paper and the code itself until I get a total grasp on the entire self balancing and payout algorithms.
Thank you again for your input, I really appreciate it. I'm only a few months on the platform, so I am learning plenty still.
Its incedible that all the gains we've made are being washed away so quickly wow
Wow, you said it. Painful, even though I knew it was very likely. But like I said, this is just a huge opportunity that may not repeat itself.
Steemit is pure genius, it will be breaking loose of BTC soon enough.
I totally agree, its going to be a great opportunity. would love to put everything into steem power if it ever gets to $0.75, was going to start doing youtube until I found out about steemit and D.tube. Just dont sell during the down side, its going to go WAY up over time.
You got it!
Like the tide, washing away, then surging back.
(But not the Tide pods, which can kill you. Or maybe...?)
I got an interesting email from a friend, you might appreciate what I wrote back. I posted it. https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@vdux/crypto-bubble-he-wrote-this-article-a-few-years-too-soon
Interesting times we live in
I agree with your price target. It might go lower. For me to really make a dent on the site, the price needs to drop dramatically lower still. So it’s kinda a mixed feeling. Keep loosing on my current investment and get a better deal moving forward, or support a rise in prices to protect my current investment? I’m like 51/49. I’m just don’t want it to take years to get back. Thanks for the post!
You pretty much summed it up perfectly. I've been powering up regularly just to see my total USD value drop each day. But I'm fully committed and extremely bullish.
If it goes below .85 much it could get nasty, still anyone who buys in these coming weeks once the bottom shows itself a bit clearer, will be rewarded significantly, regardless if they call the bottom perfectly or not.
Aren't the STEEM wallets on Poloniex still in maintenance? I suspect they must still be, because whenever you look at the sites for coin prices, the markets/exchanges tab always shows the price much lower there. The hours later the prices drop on the other exchanges, with Poloniex continuing to drop as well to remain below all others.
I suspect that what's happening is that the inability of anyone on that site to withdraw their STEEM is driving the price down on that site, then people gradually see the averaged price across exchanges dropping, so expect to pay less than the market rate.
Meanwhile on Poloniex it continues to drop with no natural floor because as soon as someone buys it they find out they can't transfer it to Steemit or wherever they were hoping to store it off exchange. So they sell it for whatever they can get.
The only way I see our getting out of this loop is 1) Poloniex fixes its STEEM wallets (which I'm wondering why they aren't doing for sooo long) or 2) the coin listing sites start excluding Poloniex from the price averages, the way some do for KRW transactions to correct for the inflated S. Korea prices.
Binance allows you to purchase STEEM using BTC and transfer it to Steemit. I just did it to test it out.
Yes, that's how I first got STEEM onto here to. My point is that Poloniex won't for weeks now. It's wallet is broken, so no withdrawals. If you buy STEEM there you have to keep it on the exchange.
This is really good to know, than you #liquidtravel and #indigoocean . Im going to wait a little longer till the price is closer to .75 then do a big purchase for steem power on Binance. Thank You Both!!!
If you already have LTC, BTC or ETH the easiest thing to do is probably to use blocktrades from within your wallet here. I bought STEEM on Binance before I understood blocktrades, then had to figure out how to transfer it (address is your handle and memo is your memo key from permissions tab here). But going through blocktrades it makes it all quite obvious.
Also, I'm not sure bycoleman is quite saying to wait to .75 to buy at all. As he said, he's buying gradually even now, but will accelerate once it gets into the .85 range with some resistance showing.
Nice break down and advice.
Thanks 🙂
You bring up a very valid point, thank you.
This of course may be contributing to the drop but Poloniex historically only represents a small fraction of trading, of course right now it is next to nothing.
Other platforms are trading just fine, with blocktrades being the largest and not even visible by most audits
Many Steemians like myself have been averaging in with little or no regard to Poloniex which needs to make the changes, not the steem blockchain.
If I had to guess (just a guess), less than 10% of the price is a reflection of the broken wallet and then being a little bit of a cynic, I bet they find a fix just below the .85 support.
I hadn't thought about blocktrades not showing in any of those market/exchanges listings. True that's the largest market for STEEM, so bizarre for it not to be counted. Well the wallet was the only reason I could think of why this coin is dropping at a faster rate than the rest of a dropping market, when it is the most used coin, actually has utility already delivering value, plus all the things you mentioned about transaction fee-less and speed. It just makes no sense that this coin would be falling faster than ones that don't even have a testnet out.
Buy the rumor sell the news.
Steemit is way past rumor, but it will shine, really shine in the days ahead.
Blessings.
Preaching to the choir. Question though -- what do you think of averaging in, accumulating little by little as the price goes down, instead of waiting for three days rise?
Yes, that is why I mentioned in my summary
And there is of course a chance that it will find support above this line (I'm not optimistic) and start a nice reversal. I love averaging in but really don't believe in trying to catch a falling knife.
If you believe in the long term for Steem, then you will not regret averaging.
Ah, measured accumulations, right. I don't know why I thought that meant something different.
Sometimes the "speak" is purposely ambiguous other times its just old habit.
Not sure which one I'm most guilty of.
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Very cool!
For future viewers: price of bitcoin at the moment of posting is 7689.00USD
Thank you, I was hoping you would show up. It is a useful bot you are running!
thanks for insght info. I have considered to buy in a bit at this level and then consider new INs as trend changes or continues. will be more than happy if you read my last post on this :)
Trend is likely to continue. Could see a pause at $1.00.
Thanks for the kind words and take the buy ins slow.
Great article, Followed you and upvoted....
do you suggest holding liquid steem in tether until it bottoms and we can buy back in. I hate to see my steem and sbd shrink as the price drops. I'm all in on steem but want to be smart as I can be.
You know I have in the past put a lot of faith in tether, but lately with all the rumors (true or not) I am more leery about having too much there.
I have instead moved some funds into Coinbase ($USD wallet) just to try to be ready. This works for USA folks but not so much for others.
Even though I've known Steem was likely to drop and keep dropping for the last month, I've been powering up anyway. The long term potential is very significant.
interesting. I only have about 100 steem liquid but I'm not sure I want to see it lose more value. However, it's not enough to really worry about in the scheme of things. I'm in for the long haul but I invested too high I'm afraid.
It is never good to invest more than you are comfortable with. There are so many things that can go wrong and beyond our control. I've lost a lot of money in my investment carrier due to being stretched to thin and being forced out at the absolutely worse time.
Taking it slow is so much easier on the soul and as well as the bank account.