2017-10-22 - BTC/USD - Forecast

profitgenerator (68)in #bitcoin • 9 years ago

Now let's put our tool to the test, if you don't know what I am talking about read my 5 recent articles I have been working hard on a linear forecasting tool, and now it's time to put it to the test:

In the last article we have determined that the 840 period, currently, has the least error margin, so we will use that as our period. I have also added an additional module to the software so that makes it v2.1 now, now we can both use it for forecast and for backtest.

Since the data from blockchain.info is bi-daily the next price will be forecasted to 2017-Oct-22 UTC time midnight. The last price was 5979.45984 $.

To backtest just simply enter 0, to forecast just enter 1 in the console after running the software.

So this is the forecast for tomorrow:

The linear model predicts a price increase to 5986.521994511905 $. Whether it is accurate that remains to be seen, as shown in the previous article the 840 period had about a 3% error margin, precisely -3.1256367074370406 %.

It we are to miss the price that would give us a confidence range between 5799.40506555264 and 6179.67622293678, the probability I don't know, depends on the confidence value of the backtest as well (which should not be overestimated since we have only 470 sample size for that).

And you know that the linear model is not exactly the best forecasting tool in the box, but it is made easy to be used with my software, so you can thank me that! It's free.

Debug

Last but not least, I do make mistakes, so maybe I coded the last module in wrongly and we get bogus results. Well we don't, I have compared the differences between the files, and only the module part was added, previous code unchanged, the 2.1 version has a SHA256 digest of 7b0338f3a1debedeec8cd3449c883334a5a3bfe20d206ab406666fbccfb1fb11.

Plus we can easily test it on a dummy file:

So let's see:

Yeah it can forecast! It correctly guessed that after 1,2,3,4,5 the 6 comes in line. So the software works!

You can thank me later, it's all free for my dear readers:

DOWNLOAD CRYPTO FORECASTING TOOL 2.1

Disclaimer: The information provided on this page or blog post might be incorrect, inaccurate or incomplete. I am not responsible if you lose money or other valuables using the information on this page or blog post! This page or blog post is not an investment advice, just my opinion and analysis for educational or entertainment purposes.

Sources:
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