BitConnect is down, as predicted; Health and Light; and trading update!
Took a couple weeks off, to focus on my trading. Will be investing less energy in this platform moving forward, but perhaps I'll tick it up from zero a little. Read a great book from 1973, and am standing in the sun mornings now.
BitConnect Dies
I read several articles about BitConnect going under, and mentioned it yesterday in a conversation with my good friend @professor-why (who hasn't started blogging yet, but his account does now exist!) -- who reminded me that my analysis from months ago was spot-on!
I was relaying to him that two states had said "not in my backyard" -- Texas and North Carolina. He said my "technical" analysis from five months ago (link above) was very accurate; now that the USD price of BTC has been cut in half, their "business model" is no longer viable, so it's time to close up shop.
Multiple Coins Lead to Ruin (for Customers)
As I pointed out in my analysis, they run their own exchange and the volume is significantly lower on the other exchanges their coin (BCC, BitConnect Coin) was traded on.
Their "loan platform" created demand for their coin. Once they closed the loan platform, the demand dried up and the coin's value rapidly dropped by 90% on the other exchanges. I had written:
I would imagine that, if the numbers go the opposite way, they'd close up shop. For now, the numbers are causing their customers' returns to seem far less than they do in dollar terms.
Even when I get my full [dollar] amount back out, 3 months from now -- if the price of BTC skyrockets, then I won't get nearly the BTC I put in back out.
I now have a better understanding of why they created an intermediary coin.
Please share this with anybody you know that is considering investing in BitConnect. I would advise against it. I doubt I'll get back what I put in, even if they don't close up shop.
I did end up getting my money back and a little more (as I described here) -- 30% more, much less than their projections. But it's because I started with BTC; had I started with dollars, the return would have been around 370%, since BTC went up during that time as well.
Now that BTC has gone from around $20k to around $10k, they can no longer pay out at the expected amounts, so they've pulled the plug. I'd imagine before the plug was pulled, service got a little slow and unreasonable, but I've been away from there for months now and hadn't been watching.
Technical vs. Fundamental Analysis
What I really love about this is that I've been following @haejin's analysis and one of his tenets is "news will arrive to justify the price."
I had done a technical analysis almost half a year ago, showing that "when BTC drops, BitConnect won't be far behind." I had forgotten about this, due to the forgetfulness symptom of the concussions I'm recovering from. When @professor-why reminded me, it clicked.
The news articles align the shuttering with state regulators' actions. This is just the justification! The real reason they closed up shop is, they're unable to continue based on my numbers analysis. Neat.
What News is Coming?
My guess is that the current downturn will be changing soon. There's a potential double head-and-shoulders in BTC, which could drive the price back to the highs. The technicals show this; and, when (if?) it happens, my expectation is that South Korea will address the petition which just passed the required number of signers, to stop their legislators from cracking down on "anonymous" exchange accounts (like this one).
That will be the "fundamental" -- but the technical has already been identified.
"Health and Light" by John N. Ott
I had seen a video of Dr. Jack Kruse's presentation to a Vermont group a few weeks ago, discussing light frequencies and how they change one's health. I bought John Ott's book "Health and Light" based on his talk. The book was written in 1973 and is an easy read, and compelling narrative. I've ordered another of his books which he mentions in this one, "My Ivory Cellar" and look forward to enjoying it.
My mood has improved significantly, and I've only started doing this; three times, so far. I wear glasses, and need to get new ones that don't block any light frequencies (turns out ultraviolet rays are benficial!); for now, I just take them off, and look towards (but not directly at) the sun. Additionally, morning light is better for health, so I've also been getting up earlier. The first morning I counted 50 breaths; the second and third, 100 each time. I should use a clock but anyway, I'm just getting started.
It is mind-blowing that this book was written 45 years ago, and contains within it information that can cure cancers! I think that's so neat -- it's not only "the newest ideas" that can benefit one; sometimes, very old ideas make sense and convey huge benefits, as well. It's humbling.
Trading Business?
I've made some infrastructure investments in my office space, all paid for by my first trade based on @haejin's training!
I now have three 4K screens, one of which is on the new $4k laptop. Bought a $1k two-year subscription to TradingView, and now 16 graphs are regularly on the two 4K monitors. Laptop arrived today so haven't set it up yet.
It's amazing how having extra screens increases one's understanding! In order to see the volume of data on the two 4K monitors, just using my laptop -- it would take five minutes or so of clicking around on the various charts to get the information that I can now get at a glance! Well, ten to thirty seconds or so, but still, it is neat how very different my experience is with just this change already!
About to unbox the new laptop. Right now I've got the old one connected to the new 4K monitor, and an Ubuntu tower powering the other 4K monitor (this old laptop can't support two external monitors; the new one can). So, on the Ubuntu-powered one (which I can't change easily) I just put coins that I'm generally interested in; on the one connected to the laptop, I put the coins I'm actively trading.
Closed a few trades a couple days ago -- massively profitable thanks to @haejin's training. I owe you more than a beer, buddy! :)
I hope your trading is profitable -- financially, spiritually, and emotionally.
Enjoy!
Ya and sadly my money died with it.....
Don't worry , Crypto is here to stay . Do a lot of research before investing on any coin . I hope you did diversified your portfolio . Bcc died but others will take off !
Ouch, sorry to hear! Here's a 100% upvote, not that it's likely anywhere near...
Wow thanks alot man. I will resteem this post.
I would not be surprised if bitconnect bounced back.
There is rampant and obvious price manipulation with the coin, it may be possible that they intentionally devalued the coin to buy it incredibly cheap and ramp the price up again.
Not that I would recommend that trade.
I wish you massive profits, and I hope you recover from your concussion problems buddy! :)
Interesting thought -- they did mention "continuing operations" although not the existing operations, so that might be part of their plans.
Thanks -- the sunlight seems to be helping!
Yeah, the "dead cat bounce" play seems to have happened on BCC, but I wouldn't touch it!
Here's a TradingView view that I've come up with, which I think I'll write a post about; it's a neat way to see multiple cycles at once for a single coin. There are 8 charts, each of which is over a different timeframe -- All, 5y, 1y, 6m, 3m, 1m, 5d, and 1d. I still need to do some "training" on TradingView, as I want to be able to change the candles (e.g., "4 hour" vs. "30 min" etc).
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SJ3hGo73/
been waiting for your newest post and they are becoming more and more in-depth. What does a 4K monitor help with in terms of viewing charts?
It's amazing! It's like having four 1080p monitors arranged 2x2. The 40" screen to my right show 8 charts, so basically each chart takes up "half of a 1080p screen" which allows for a large number of pixels and thus resolution to show the various charts and markups. That screen is connected to a tower which I access rarely, so I've got charts on it that I won't often change.
The new 4K screen (43") on the new stand, so it's above my laptop, is connected to the laptop and shows another 8 charts. Those are the coins I'm actively trading.
The new laptop is so fast, and this also helps! I'm still on the old laptop right now, as I have a support ticket in -- I don't think anything is wrong with it, just I don't know how to boot from USB -- I want to put the old laptop into a VM, and then migrate files and programs over to the new laptop in a measured pace (rather than "drop everything and do this now" because that always gets interrupted by another similar requirement!).
For instance, clicking a new coin on Binance takes around 5 seconds for the chart to update, on this old laptop -- and takes about one second on the new one. So, I'm "five times faster while navigating" and if you can navigate faster, you tend to reach your destination faster!
That, and -- the morning sunlight really seems to be helping (although I'm in a bad mood right now, from stupid local conflicts...).
you were very lucky there i think you got the invested amount too isn't it phewww
Yeah, was scary there for a few months!
haahh but you seem to did well :D
Good work on the predictions of BCCs demise and glad you got out when you did. Sounds like 4K heaven over there. Make sure you reserve one of those screens for Steemit!!
:) Yeah, it'll be on the laptop. I'm blown away at how much more info I can get at a moment's glance (5 seconds, perhaps 10), which took me many minutes in the past -- and, when I got the final data points before, they were minutes old compared to the first ones!
That doesn't make for good basis for comparison -- but now, it does! I've seen patterns today I never would have seen, which is rather exciting. Onwards and upwards! :)
Congratulations for your trading success. The example of bit connect shows however that a a fundamental analysis should also not be excluded when looking at the charts!
Your last sentence is somewhat diametrically opposed to my thesis, but, oh well. :)
I think that to avoid trading scam coins, one should not buy only based on charts. Also, I think there is a risk that with lower volume counts people might manipulate the charts in order to trigger additional demand from the chartists. But generally I am not against charts. I just think that you should not base your decision solely on them.
Well, I take your caution as "don't base one's decision solely on price movement" because volume is also important. And MACD.
I am finding it very interesting, following @haejin's recommendations and training. Interesting, and profitable! Had a 29% gain in three hours last night.
I think that technical can work well - especially in the crypto world were it is even more difficult to find hard facts to build your fundamental analysis on. However, if somebody promisses me 1pct per day I will not touch it as it will quite likely be a ponzi scheme. Nice profit btw, especially in this environment.
Thanks! It was CND, which might be running again, it's up since @haejin posted his analysis a half hour or so ago.
Personally I am glad that Bitconnect is down I felt it was a bad thing from the moment I heard about it. The only thing that bothers me is now the Big Whales of Bitconnect are coming into steem and will rape the reward pool
I think the reward pool is being abused by whales no matter what. My attention focuses away from it for now.
Perhaps you can do an analysis in the altcoin markets? Surely there will be a similar Bitconnect story somewhere to be uncovered.
Perhaps! :)
The utuber guy who opposed BCC had another video about steemit and that brought me here. :)
Above its legal trouble and inability to protect itself from continuous DDoS attacks,