“Bitco[i]n” Will Collapse to $775 Price Soon

in #bitcoin5 years ago (edited)

Blockstream’s Core “Bitco[i]n” Will Collapse to $775 Price Soon


@johnnyflynn replied:

I replied:

@johnnyflynn replied:

I wrote:

Here is something very important. Armstrong wrote on November 26:

A year-end closing below 4150 will point to a drop back to 775 area.

Note that Bitcoin closed the year at $4177! So Armstrong’s most bearish possible scenario was miraculously averted.

I was going through the charts on Trading View and noticed that Bitcoin closed the year at approx between $3835 to $3580 (depending on the exchange). On Xmas eve the price was more like $4177… I assume you may have confused these dates (as I do being a catholic). I thought I’d point that out in case it weighs in on your future assumptions on Bitcoin’s price.

Well f*ck me. I was looking at the default logarithmic view at 99bitcoins which displays “2019-01-01 $4177.35”, because at that time cryptowat.ch was crashing on the old version of my Chrome browser on Linux Mint Mate. I have installed an “unstable” newest version of Chrome (only other choice available on my older revision of Mint Mate) and now I can see you are correct.

So according to Armstrong’s computer system, the BTC prices is headed to $775! No wonder he is gloating so much about Bitcoin being not capable of having any significant impact.

I don’t know whether to trust his system, but this does cause me to think very carefully about planning.

Hopefully his computer is wrong. But I can’t see why Armstrong would want to be deliberately wrong about Bitcoin’s price. How does he benefit from that? He (or Socrates) has a strong incentive to be accurate whatever they’re predicting. Perhaps I’m not privy to some information here, but it makes no sense to me that he’d do this

Today I became concerned about Martin Armstrong because he published:

I must inform everyone that the government has begun another action in trying to shut me up. Their goal is to silence me once and for all. It does not matter. They can kill me, it will not change the outcome.

Note he quickly removed that text from his blog post (and I didn’t think to quickly archive his blog post), but after noticing it was missing when I reloaded his blog post, I archived it from Google’s cache as follows:

Might have something to do with this:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-13/cult-economist-jailed-for-hiding-rare-coins-says-they-re-his-now (archived)

https://pennrecord.com/stories/512607230-pa-case-concerning-coin-collection-sale-stayed-while-new-york-issues-play-out (archived)

They’re apparently pulled him back into the corrupt New York courts jurisdiction again (<--- click that link for Armstrong’s detailed side of his history and the widespread corruption he alleges exists in the U.S.A. which also involved Russia).

When I searched on his name I happenstanced upon the following detailed article which mentions that quote we were discussing before:

https://www.bitrates.com/news/p/martin-armstrong-on-cryptocurrencies-and-bitcoin-ask-socrates-and-the-real-economy

There was no possible way governments would EVER hand over such power to Bitcoin. These people have no clue about the age of knowledge, for they are trapped in the age of stupidity. A monthly closing below 2950 will confirm the long-term trend is turning down. A year-end closing below 4150 will point to a drop back to 775 area. It was a trading vehicle – not an investment class for the long-term. With the IMF telling all central banks to create their own cryptocurrency and the introduction of Blockchain in experimenting with tax collection, we face a very different future due to technology. However, it will not be a world of free-market cryptos that bring governments to their knees.

Recently I have been posting a very detailed explanation about the epic SegWit donations “attack” (←click that link, which is also archived) that if it happens, I argue would destroy the Core variant of Bitcoin (perhaps this May 2020 at the halving effect).

Most people think that Blockstream’s Core is Bitcoin, and thus it seems that Armstrong’s $775 prediction for the coming price of “Bitcoin” (i.e. Core’s BitcOn scam) could still come to fruition! Oh my!

The logic is that the Blockstream’s Core variant of Bitcoin will be nearly destroyed or totally destroyed if the said donations “attack” transpires, fulfilling the warnings of everyone who thought and said Bitcoin was analogous to a Tulip Bubble.

Armstrong included the following chart his blogs here, here, and here:

I wrote 7 months ago:

[…] someone sent me the following chart with the comment that $3100 is the 200 DMA and if BTC falls through $2400 we are doomed.

The current vertical move could be a reaction, deadcat bounce up to $12+k below those red trend lines on the above chart, which would explain the weird projected fractal patterns I was trying to understand. This would be explicable if this was a dead-cat bounce for the impostor, scam Blockstream Core BitcOn and simultaneously an extremely bullish a low volume adoption spike (and not a dead-cat bounce) for the real Bitcoin...

Because I posit the real Satoshi v0.5.3 immutable protocol Bitcoin (aka “real Bitcoin”, the actual, true, original, immutable, one-and-only Bitcoin) will continue on and go to very high prices perhaps $1 million before the end of 2020. But most people will not believe that is Bitcoin. It may not even trade on exchanges. The price may not be liquid for most people, even those who hodl Legacy addresses (i.e. real Bitcoin).

Obviously I have written many times that I think the above BTC charts are illusions because they’re linearly instead of logarithmic scaled on the price axis. So those illusions fit perfectly with the illusion that Blockstream’s Core is Bitcoin. The Core impostor will die as a Tulip Bubble, but the real Bitcoin will continue appreciating towards $100+ trillion market cap.

Make sure read @lauch3D’s comment below this blog and my reply to it. So perhaps we should use linear charts for analyzing the Core shitcoin and logarithmic charts for the real Bitcoin:


Linearly scaled BTC


Logarithmic scaled BTC

THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT. AND NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO MY POSTS.


The May 2020 timeline is presuming that Craig Wright is not bluffing. Craig’s group does have ~3000 peta-hash/s which is a few percent of Bitcoin’s network hashrate, so that might be sufficient to lead the “attack” as I have explained in great detail (c.f. the links earlier in this blog).

Why would Craig bluff when the “attack” appears to be both plausible and insanely profitable (again refer to the link to the detailed explanation). And he would fulfill his admonishments and warnings about destroying all the scammers in the cryptocosm:

It’s not like he hasn’t crashed Core’s price before:

Bitcoin (both variants) should at least attain $12k before the May 2020 halving and probably be loitering there for a while before the halving:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/D77ZTaQb-Bitcoin-macro-view-non-linear-regression/

It could spike higher than that, but I am not expecting it:

https://twitter.com/davthewave/status/1133722207656407041

At the halving everyone will be expecting BTC to start to blast off (because they recently were preached to about it and FOMO not realizing it the prior two halvings). Instead if Craig Wright keeps his promise to dump massive (SegWit) BTC (which I presume he will have already split before loading on the exchanges so he loses no real BTC), then everyone will be caught by surprise. If that is the SegWit “attack” as I have posited, then that the real BTC would be blasting off, while Blockstream’s Core BitcoOn is plausibly plummeting to $775. The halving will halve the rewards for miners at same time as Core is cratering in price, so the Core protocol miners will be forced to mine on real Bitcoin or go bankrupt.

Seems to be a perfect fit. That’s the way to make the market go against the vast majority, which is what markets do. If instead the SegWit “attack” was delayed until the next ATH, then many people would be taking profits and the miners would be very profitable even with a crash in the price, so that wouldn’t fit.

Core would collapse in price on exchanges also because the chain will become so slow nearly no on-chain transactions are being confirmed. If the price ever stabilizes and if the difficulty ever readjusts, then we will be dumping our free airdrop Core shitcoins on any exchanges that survive.

What will this do to altcoins? I would think that this would send altcoin prices skyrocketing because they would be the way to get your BTC off of exchanges by trading BTC for any altcoin.

However the cratering BTC price will cause everyone to want to sell their altcoins for fiat and get out of the cryptocosm. There will be a panic and stampede for the exits.

So altcoins will provide liquidity but not price appreciation and will lose value relative to fiat price. Surely the altcoins will lose relative value compared to real BTC, but real BTC may not be trading on any exchanges (who would be stupid enough to load their real BTC to an exchange when we do not know which ones will be bankrupted by this).

At the worst of the blood in the streets perhaps after some months, that might be a buying opportunity for altcoins but not Core. It will take time for the market to understand that real BTC lives on, then altcoins will rebound with a vengeance.

I do not know how long it will take for liquidity to appear on exchanges for real BTC. Any thoughts?

Note I can envision/imagine many ICO-scam altcoins possibly never recovering because for example the devs might be sued or government action taken against them for losing all the value of the investors. I think this is possible for EOS and Binance Token for example. Craig Wright claims both Daniel Larimer and CZ of Binance are going to prison.

But at least, if Litecoin does not suffer a SegWit attack, then it should eventually recover after declining to a very low price. At the bottom perhaps former Litecoin $millionaires will may be worth less than $100k or perhaps even lower.

I think it is crazy to sell any real BTC that we do not need to sell. Just hodl but be prepared to hodl for up to 2 years before you can sell.

And expect the regulatory environment to become much more strict within that time frame. It may be much more difficult to sell real BTC for fiat. Capital controls might already be ramping up.

I think it is going to be absolutely critical to have alternative means of trading cryptocurrency. Meaning that you do not want to locked down by USA or EU[G20] edicts.

As for the future of altcoins, I think they will eventually come back, but maybe the market will weed out only the strong altcoins that have a real future.

I think your reasoning seems very possible if there is a segwit attack. Exchanges will get very fcked over. Segwit adoption seems to be stabilizing around 40%

https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-segwit-adoption/

My guess is the exchanges are among the adopters so there will be a big impact on them […]

I have some further questions.

  1. You were talking a bit about litecoin not suffering a segwit attack. Why not? If this attack is confimred possible on btc what protects ltc from having the same fait?

  2. I'm not really clear about the difference between bsv and legacy btc. Is it that bsv has lifted the block size cap tampering with the store of value function? Will the market see a clear winner in legacy or is there a risk bsv is the winner? I mean at first my guess is bsv will shoot up fast because the market will understand Craig was correct in his Segwit attack and hence the market will support his coin.

The chart you provided is daily volume. That does not tell us what percent of the UTXO is stored in SegWit addresses, which may be growing over time, not plateauing. Try to find the chart we need.

Exchanges that have their own assets stored in Core addresses may not be able to pay their bills, if Core can’t transact on chain. Also as the fiat price of the cryptocosm craters, their fiat income craters also. Realize for example that Kraken has their own BTC on loan to users for their leveraged short feature. So their clients who have put up that BTC for Kraken to loan out, may have some contractual demands they can put on Kraken.

Note the Blockstream Core devs would presumably at some point release a new mining client with a manually readjusted difficulty level if the hashrate craters too much. That would of course be the blasphemy of centralized control. I could also imagine Craig attacking Core with their 3000 peta-hash causing difficulty adjustment attacks ongoing. Would Core then change the proof-of-work algorithm? Lol. They become a shitcoin like Monero that is completely centralized (btw I recently found more revelations about Monero which vindicate me entirely!).

Exchanges which allow users to cash BTC to fiat and then withdraw may get squeezed if they can not sell the BTC to raise fiat. Squeezed exchanges may experience a stampede out of altcoins causing the exchange to collapse.

With the prices and thus hashrate of so many blockchains cratered, 50+% (colloquially misnamed 51%) attacks may proliferate on many altcoins causing huge losses for exchanges.

The chaos could be unfathomable. My popcorn is ready.

  1. How much SegWit value is there to take on Litecoin? Who has sufficient hashrate and wants to initiate the attack on Litecoin? Also Litecoin seems to have a fanatical user base. Remember Litecoin’s valuation is not “going for the gold” so the value of the immutability is less so than on Bitcoin.

  2. There is no SegWit to take on BSV. BSV already hard forked off. Forks of Bitcoin can not compete with real, immutable, one-and-only Bitcoin.

Just to add a short observation concerning the segwit/legacy theory and what exchanges be impacted. I looked at some recent transactions I made from different exchanges.

Poloniex and Bittfinex seem to have their hot wallet in legacy address format
Bitstamp and Kraken seem to have their hot wallet in Segwit address format.

Very interesting. Poloniex and Bitfinex seemed to have been associated with USDT (aka Tether) and very shady exchanges (which I experienced first-hand on Polo). My hypothesis is that Craig will sell BSV and Core BTC for USDT and then take the USDT over to another exchange where he can buy Legacy BTC.

Sort:  

Bubbles like these crash, because they grow towards a time finite singularity. This superexponential growth is not sustainable and an unstable state. Like an apple on a tree, the system matures towards instability.

In an unstable state, any external shock can cause the apple to fall down. Does not matter if it is the wind or a bee. It does not matter if BTC was @20k or 30k - it was the growth dynamic making it fragile, not the price level.

  • Is a bubble exponentially exploding growth/prices?
  • or exploding volatility?
  • or positive feedback of price on volatility?

Volatility does not predict bubbles/crashes at all. It's like a sudden discontinuity- a quantum leap in Volatility.


[Sornette et al. 2011]

The dynamic of Bitcoin is endogenous, it always bubbles superexponential. It must have something to do with the spread of information in social media and society and some strong positive feedbacks.

But as you showed in your last valuation article, the narrative has changed: within or beneath all this bubbling, there is a fundamental up-trend, like as if it is digital gold. And as long the narrative of safe heaven is there, the trend will continue. Since the narrative comes from the integrity/track record of Bitcoin (Core) you first have to destroy its robustness in order to destroy the narrative --> destroy the trend.

Even fractional reserve and tons of synthetic bitcoin can only destroy a bubble (so could the wind or a bee) but the system and the fundamental trend cant be destroyed. Bubbles are a natural, universal Epiphenomenon on top the Trend/utility driven Network-effect. In tulips there was no narrative, no usecase, no utility. Otology and Epistemology works.

IF your destruction-scenario for Core is right (I don't get the game theory here, I thought there are mechanisms like checkpointing), well then RIP. The implosion of Bitcoin could also trigger other bigger bubbles to crash. Would be a good kickstarter for Satoshis Protocol lel.

Please read my blog again because I added a lot more to it since you wrote your comment, and note the linearly versus logarithmic scaled. The linear exemplifies that impulsive, unstable “rogue wave” as Armstrong calls it, but not the logarithmic.

The logarithmic variant exemplifies the “unforgeable costliness” valuation model which can grow exponentially until the opportunity cost on mining is challenged by some other meritorious human activity. Again read my detailed explanation of the posited “attack” game theory (which is linked from my blog) to understand the relevance.

Loading...

This post is supported by $2.85 @tipU upvote funded by @lauch3d :)
@tipU voting service: instant, profitable upvotes + profit sharing tokens | For investors.

Shelby, I have followed your suggestion. If you save me a fortune from this potential attack...I am very happy to donate to you to help with your medical costs for your TB.

Sign up for a free protonmail email address and join my private email group:

[email protected]

Hopefully I will not need the donations. I think I am going to be okay. Ty.

Please do not short nor sell Core because of my analysis. I only feel confident to advise others to hodl in 1 Legacy addresses. What each of us will do with any Core airdrop is our own individual judgement to make.

Hey dude, awesome work piecing all this together. Sounds like a very plausible scenario given the all elements you've gone into depth about. Many thanks for sharing.

Have a question (which may illustrate my lack of comprehension); how will the market differentiate between the 'real' Bitcoin and 'core' bitcoin for one to take a dive and one to skyrocket if both are currently assumed to be the same?

Core tokens have an address that begins with 3; whereas, Bitcoins begin with 1. But many exchanges and wallets lie to users and say that both address formats are Bitcoin. After the hardfork off of Core, then the current blockchain will be forked into two blockchains. Everyone who had 1 address tokens before the hardfork (in May 2020?) will keep those tokens on both blockchains. Those who had 3 addresses will only have tokens on the Core blockchain, because the legacy Bitcoin blockchain will not support 3 addresses.

The market (e.g. exchanges) will need to distinguish these two blockchains (which they can do by observing which blockchain is enforcing Core protocol rules for 3 address tokens), but they may be hesitant to do so initially. We just have to see how it plays out and what bullshit names are chosen for each of the two forks after the hardfork. Do note that my hypothesis (and Craig’s promise) is that the Core protocol blockchain will after it hardforks off, have such a low level of support from miners that it essentially rarely mines a block and becomes too slow to confirm transactions.


P.S. I remember it was the Fed’s decision to stop raising interest rates that seemed to correlate with risk-on assets rising after the crash in Nov/Dec. So recent news is that the Fed may be forced to cut rates at the next FOMC meeting June 18 or July 30. So that might be the timing for the next move higher to $12+K. Which remember was my projected timing.

Hey! I've already read your post a few months ago, and just now a second time and noticed new parts. (But I've also already seen in a comment to @lauch3d that you've added them :) NICE! :D)

But I have a noob question:
Is one basically safe if one hodle one's btc on an 1... adress instead of 3... or bc1... adresses?
I've stored most of mine on an truecrypt encrypted usb-stick with an encrypted legacy electrum wallet on it.
I've heard electrum is loved by the geeks and hope it's safe..
I have my keys, noone else. Multiply encrypted. And legacy (1...?) adresses..
Also I'm just a teenager, noone cares about. Do you think I'm safe?
greets! (:
(off-topic: have you heard of the grin hack?)

Coin Marketplace

STEEM 0.21
TRX 0.13
JST 0.030
BTC 67073.12
ETH 3507.19
USDT 1.00
SBD 3.18