RE: Most Important Bitcoin Chart Ever
Nice find. So that (after I zoomed in on the charts by right-clicking and editing the urls) indicates $3 – 5k for remainder of 2019, possibly with a spike to $6k. The range for 2020 is $5 – 10k. And new ATHs in 2021 with a blowoff peak in late 2022 of $86k.
It’s going to be challenging for me to manage expenses for 2019, but I should be able to squeeze through. 2020 will provide a lot of momentum and need to be prepared to accelerate rapidly on all fronts. 2021 and 2022 will be another crazy frenzy. I will be age 57 in 2022. Other than my health issue, this is not too old. I am poised and laying the groundwork now.
Here is something very important. Armstrong wrote on November 26:
A year-end closing below 4150 will point to a drop back to 775 area.
Note that Bitcoin closed the year at $4177! So Armstrong’s most bearish possible scenario was miraculously averted.
EDIT: Another corroborating chart:
EDIT#2: Bitcoin price is unlikely to drop below $3400 ever again, and possibly not below $3600:
EDIT#3: There’s a threat of Bitcoin dropping back to $3700 and even much lower, although something seems off with that NVT Signal chart compared to its historical pattern.
On the positive side, there’s another more detailed logistic (log-normal) projection for extrapolating the Bitcoin price into the future and it predicts a $50,000 “clean price” in 2022 and ~$1 million price within roughly a decade.
Note the $50k in 2022 is not the “manipulated price” which could be multiples higher. Tim Draper is expecting a $230,000 peak by 2023.
I was going through the charts on Trading View and noticed that Bitcoin closed the year at approx between $3835 to $3580 (depending on the exchange). On Xmas eve the price was more like $4177… I assume you may have confused these dates (as I do being a catholic). I thought I’d point that out in case it weighs in on your future assumptions on Bitcoin’s price.
Well f*ck me. I was looking at the default logarithmic view at 99bitcoins which displays “
2019-01-01 $4177.35”, because at that timecryptowat.chwas crashing on the old version of my Chrome browser on Linux Mint Mate. I have installed an “unstable” newest version of Chrome (only other choice available on my older revision of Mint Mate) and now I can see you are correct.So according to Armstrong’s computer system, the BTC prices is headed to $775! No wonder he is gloating so much about Bitcoin being not capable of having any significant impact.
I don’t know whether to trust his system, but this does cause me to think very carefully about planning.
SUBJECT: Armstrong is employing scare tactics
We can clearly see on the following chart that it’s more or less impossible for BTC to decline below $1200 without ending the adoption of Bitcoin:
The only way that happens is if Bitcoin is somehow broken. Maybe the postulated SegWit theft is the only way I can see that happening. And I do not expect that theft until Lightning Networks is ubiquitously adopted, which would mean a much higher BTC price first.
His Socrates systems provides reversals and ranges. The $775 is an extreme of the possible range is probably only about a 1-in-1000 probability. Armstrong is being disingenuous here and using scare tactics so he can gloat about the Bitcoin bear market correction.
No fucking way the BTC price is going back to $775.
We may have some more downside into the $2500 to $3000 range, but hell no on below $1000. A small probability of dipping below $1500 on this bear market, but that is not likely.
Hopefully his computer is wrong. But I can’t see why Armstrong would want to be deliberately wrong about Bitcoin’s price. How does he benefit from that? He (or Socrates) has a strong incentive to be accurate whatever they’re predicting. Perhaps I’m not privy to some information here, but it makes no sense to me that he’d do this
You’re misinterpreting the edit to my prior comment. His Socrates computer modeling system is presumably only telling us that the absolute worst case is $775. But his Socrates system doesn’t current give us probabilities associated with each possible price level. So whilst $775 might be possible, the odds that his computer model would compute (if it did compute such probabilities), would presumably be very, very unlikely. I pulled the 1-in-a-1000 out of my ass, as a rough guess of what the computer model would presumably compute as a probability, if it even assesses probabilities. IOW, his reversal system isn’t that useful in its current state without probabilities attached. And thus he’s more or less a charlatan. Time and price is insufficient without relative probabilities provided. So in order words, the odds of declining to $2500 are much greater than the odds of declining to $775.
Separate Armstrong’s personal opinion that he expresses in his blogs from the numbers and timing that his computer model spits out. Armstrong runs his foul opinionated mouth about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, because his history is as a coin collector and a historian who has studied the rise and fall of civilizations. Also he was illegally incarcerated for 7 years by the banksters in the USA, on a bogus and unconstitutional contempt-of-court charge. They tortured him in prison and almost blinded him. He has a confirmation bias because he is overly invested right now in his main thesis that that governments are omnipotent and will bring humanity into a Dark Age if we are not able to rise up and overthrow the corruption.
But his huge blind spot is that blockchains and Fat protocols are how we will disintermediate and change government. He is stuck inside his myopia and can’t see what time it is and the epochal technological and economic revolution underway. One of his huge mistakes is not understanding the blockchains are not just about cryptocurrency. They’re going to disintermediate/decentralize all closed-source databases that power the Internet, such as the social media behemoths. Armstrong can’t see the elephant in his living room.
Somebody should send/spend/encash BTC asap if they plan to.
https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-analysis-btc-usd-close-to-another-massive-sell-off-201901250315
https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-risks-are-heavily-skewed-to-the-downside-confluence-detector-201901250958
https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/01/25/bitcoin-price-analysis-crypto-the-new-amazon-charles-hoskinson/
I can confirm that 57 doesn't feel too old ;-)