RE: “Bitco[i]n” Will Collapse to $775 Price Soon
Bubbles like these crash, because they grow towards a time finite singularity. This superexponential growth is not sustainable and an unstable state. Like an apple on a tree, the system matures towards instability.
In an unstable state, any external shock can cause the apple to fall down. Does not matter if it is the wind or a bee. It does not matter if BTC was @20k or 30k - it was the growth dynamic making it fragile, not the price level.
- Is a bubble exponentially exploding growth/prices?
- or exploding volatility?
- or positive feedback of price on volatility?
Volatility does not predict bubbles/crashes at all. It's like a sudden discontinuity- a quantum leap in Volatility.
The dynamic of Bitcoin is endogenous, it always bubbles superexponential. It must have something to do with the spread of information in social media and society and some strong positive feedbacks.
But as you showed in your last valuation article, the narrative has changed: within or beneath all this bubbling, there is a fundamental up-trend, like as if it is digital gold. And as long the narrative of safe heaven is there, the trend will continue. Since the narrative comes from the integrity/track record of Bitcoin (Core) you first have to destroy its robustness in order to destroy the narrative --> destroy the trend.
Even fractional reserve and tons of synthetic bitcoin can only destroy a bubble (so could the wind or a bee) but the system and the fundamental trend cant be destroyed. Bubbles are a natural, universal Epiphenomenon on top the Trend/utility driven Network-effect. In tulips there was no narrative, no usecase, no utility. Otology and Epistemology works.
IF your destruction-scenario for Core is right (I don't get the game theory here, I thought there are mechanisms like checkpointing), well then RIP. The implosion of Bitcoin could also trigger other bigger bubbles to crash. Would be a good kickstarter for Satoshis Protocol lel.
Please read my blog again because I added a lot more to it since you wrote your comment, and note the linearly versus logarithmic scaled. The linear exemplifies that impulsive, unstable “rogue wave” as Armstrong calls it, but not the logarithmic.
The logarithmic variant exemplifies the “unforgeable costliness” valuation model which can grow exponentially until the opportunity cost on mining is challenged by some other meritorious human activity. Again read my detailed explanation of the posited “attack” game theory (which is linked from my blog) to understand the relevance.