RE: Most Important Bitcoin Chart Ever
This reply post is a continuation of the prior post.
§Timing…
I wrote in prior post:
Reasons to think this current rise in May won’t go all the way to $78k:
- The long/short position had already rebalanced to 1.0 at ~$8K price (but now has declined back to 0.9), although both longs and shorts (and also exchanges that offer margin trading) could be wrecked by massive volatility.
Long/short peaked 1.6 at $8.4k then subsequently tumbled below $7k as I predicted in advance in private emails. Without further capitulation below $6.7k, then $15+k is still possible within June. However, the spike down to $6.3k is bearish. Instead I expect a bounce to $7.7k then renewed decline to within the range $5200 – $6000 by late May or early June. Then a further capitulation to $4300 in September. And possibly a scary spike low to $1200 to wreck longs. Then renewing the bullish mooning. Note also the less likely possibility to race back up to $10k and then form the said significant decline from there.
Detailed Scenario Charts
Last one has precisely computed timing:
(click to zoom)
Here’s a more conservative scenario that’s still within the ranges historically for Bitcoin’s S/Fs valuation multiplier ratio:
The potential drop from $4300 to $1200 is an optional, extreme scenario, which would be to wreck those leveraged long at $4300 but would likely be of very short duration because of heavy buying at $1200.
(click to zoom)
Note how the above latest posited scenario chart would defy majority expectations: (so as to wreck the most people and throw them off Bitcoin)
Potential whiplash back up next week if the Van Eck ETF is approved by SEC on May 21st, 2019.
Drop back down to
$4300, or even$1200if October deadline for final SEC decision on ETF is declined.Sudden spike rise to ATH ~
$78ka few months after May 2020 halving.
Sudden spike rise to ATH ~
208kafter only ~19 months and two years “prematurely” before the next halving in 2024.Another ATH ~
$1.5 millionat next halving in 2024.
§Discussion of other correlation, coincidences, and possible fundamental drivers…
On Jan 30 I predicted (←click for Armstrong’s interest rate chart) this current BTC price rise, based on (among other numerous factors) the world moving towards lowering interest rates into 2020 in a futile attempt to avert the coming global sovereign debt crisis (which is approaching its crescendo breaking point). Low interest rates drive liquidity for speculation, but interest rates will whiplash back to rising again by 2021/22 with the culmination of the multi-decade debt bubble as the world then descends into egregious stagflation.
Unlike the growth-oriented unemployment in the 1970s stagflation (c.f. also) — stagflation which was caused by the surge in global demand (and thus inflation) of the large Boomer generation entering the workforce (originating from the post-WW2 boom in births as soldiers returned home) and which fooled the Fed — the coming stagflation and unemployment will be caused by surge in demand of the rise of billions in Asia concomitant with the severe deflation (i.e. economic collapse) in the West due the bursting a multi-decade global debt bubble. The West didn’t experience severe deflation in the early 1970s. Note the coming unemployment problem in the West will be eventually (after a decade or more) “solved” by even more deflation as the workforce shrinks because our fertility is so low.
CPI-Adjusted GDP Growth
Nominal GDP Growth
Nominal GDP Growth
By 2047, the maximum possible nominal GDP growth in the USA will shrink below 5% or 2% if CPI-adjusted with just 3% inflation. By 2067, that will be 0% and -3% respectively.
It is imperative that we MUST eliminate the income tax […] The income tax has become such a tyranny that our liberty, freedom of movement, and world economic growth are all at great risk.
Never before in the history of human civilization do we find an income tax.
Once this Marxist concept of direct taxation was created, then the government must know everything we do, track us for it assumes we all cheat and lie, and in the process, it is hunting money globally to the point that world economic growth has been declining.
It was Obama who pushed
FATCA(Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act) that requires all foreign entities to report on anything they do with Americans outside the USA or else their assets will be confiscated in the USA […]Today, governments no longer respect international law.
The entire direct taxation is what the Founding Fathers in the US forbid.
The Constitution forbade non-apportioned taxation. The 16th Amendment was never ratified (c.f. also and also) and even so, it only applies to corporations not individuals. Income taxes on individuals are thus unconstitutional in the USA. Because the Founding Fathers understood the tyranny that would accumulate from direct taxation.
The Common Reporting Standard (CRS) is an information standard for the automatic exchange of tax and financial information on a global level […] Its purpose was to hunt down tax evasion primarily for the European Union. They took the concept from the US […] FATCA, which imposed liabilities on foreign institutions if they did not report what Americans were doing outside the country.
The legal basis of the CRS is the Convention on Mutual Administrative Assistance in Tax Matters. As of 2016, 83 countries [are signatories].
Non-signatory countries thus far include: Afghanistan, Algeria, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cambodia, Cape Verde, Cuba, East Timor, Egypt, Ethiopia, El Salvador, Fiji, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Iran, Kiribati, Laos, Madagascar, Maldives, Mongolia, Montenegro, Nepal, Nicaragua, Palau, Serbia, South Ossetia, Sri Lanka, Syria, Thailand, Uzbekistan, Venezuela and Vietnam.
Non-ratification countries thus far include: Armenia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Estonia, Morocco, Paraguay, Philippines and the USA.
Armstrong also wrote:
The Constitution was not supposed to be a self-actuating or a self-correcting document. Unfortunately, allowing it to be amended has destroyed its very intent. Once they installed the income tax on a progressive basis, they conveniently interpreted that you can discriminate against class and occupation but not anything else from religion to race and gender. We have proven that there is no EQUAL PROTECTION OF THE LAW and that the observation of Thrasymachus (c 459-400 BC) is the correct one of history — all governments interpret laws only in their own self-interest.
Governments will react to the “strong dollar, short vortex” which is driving capital flight into the USA dollar, by increasing capital controls, which will drive demand for BTC.
Armstrong wrote:
The flight of capital to the dollar was met by imposing capital controls. These capital controls may have solved the flight of capital immediately, but at the cost of a complete collapse in confidence in Europe as a whole. The lesson from 1931 was not that of PROTECTIONISM, which killed trade, but it was the imposition of capital controls that brought international trade to a halt. If capital could not be exported, then commerce could not buy any goods. This was far more drastic than protectionism with tariffs. There just seems to be very questionable analysis applied which was either by true idiots, or more likely, the analysis deliberately hid the actions of government to justify the takeover by Marxist Socialism.
The time frame where
we may see governments resort to capital controls might arrive in 2021-2022.We MUST be realistic that capital controls are far worse that trade disputes.
Technologically governments can’t ban decentralized, on-chain Bitcoin. They can only regulate the exchange to tangible assets and fiat.
With significant surge in such subversive usage, governments will increase regulation in an attempt to stop Bitcoin from subverting their capital controls, e.g. increasing enforcement of Anti-Money Laundering (AML), such as the very onerous “proof of source of funds” and “source of wealth”. Readers should make sure they can unequivocally document the legal source of their funds.
https://intercom.help/sharesies/legal-and-regulation/proving-source-of-funds-and-source-of-wealth
https://blog.revolut.com/what-is-source-of-funds-and-how-does-it-affect-me/
Governments won’t have any incentive to ban Bitcoin, because on-chain transactions fees will be $1000+ when BTC is $1 million. Thus too few people transacting on-chain to make it worth the government’s concern. Government will regulate the off-chain, fractional-reserves (or at least frequently stolen) exchanges (and Mt. Box Lightning Networks hubs) where the masses will be able to afford to transact.
Bitcoin’s rise is concomitant with the decline of the Western financial system (and its $USD reserve currency) into a multilateral world without a single superpower, and devolution of the nation-states under international order.
[…] asked the audience to dispel old notions of “bad or good.” After all, the Asian philosophy is that a “balance” between the two forces exists in everything, and that being a “purist” who believes in only one or the other risks being a cynic or hypocrite. “Facts and perspectives change over time.”
And as for traditional good-guy, bad-guy depictions of the prevailing superpowers […] take another look, from another perspective.
[…] over a thousand years of recorded history, China never invaded the Philippines. The massive fleets of ancient Chinese explorers such as Zheng He, whose huge ships dwarfed those of Columbus who would not take to the seas until more than a hundred years later, were more focused on trade, friendship, and not colonization.
[…] USA had more “broken deals” in its foreign relations, from its reneging on the promise for Philippine independence from Spain, […] annexation of Hawaii after imprisoning its royal elite and the land-grabbing of the western part of the U.S. from Mexico. Siy gave other more recent examples such as the Iraq and Libya invasions (the U.S. demanded Libya to disarm [before invading]) […], UN Human Rights Council, Paris Agreement […]
“This is the perspective with which China, Russia, and North Korea view the USA.” […] in spite of its bully image, China has settled 17 of its 23 border disputes and 12 out of 14 land disputes, often giving more concessions to work on peace. […] China has also forgiven $3.8B in loans to the poorest nations, with $100M forgiven for the Philippines and donating another $250M for bridges, rehabilitation centers, schools, etc. “The interest of Chinese loans is also cheaper than Japan’s […]”
Asia increasing coal power plants, the West destroying them.
As the economy declines, also does the quality of goods and services:
Q: Compared to Roman timeline, what year would you say we are in 2019?
A: […] hard to say […] seem to be between the peak […] 180 AD and […] Maximinus I (235-238 AD) who [confiscated] all wealth […] in communistic fashion […] Wealth was driven underground and […] hoarded […] We […] have this post-2007 in the FATCA age where […] governments declare any money outside their borders is […] money laundering
states [are] arguing for the confiscation of 401Ks led by California.
Maximinus confiscated the ornaments of temples […] Countless died [for] their religio[n]
Democrats are demanding Trump’s tax returns […] after Trump […] may move toward an authoritarian
Armstrong wrote:
6th Wave […] isn’t a walk in the park to some glorified new age of knowledge […] cannot leave behind the majority.
I wrote on Quora about a new Golden Ratio and Fibonacci model:
Hey @anonymint, is the project for your cryptocurrency still canceled?