A Possible Cure For Steem?

in #steemit7 years ago

Some time ago, I wrote an article that asked the question, "Is Steem Dying?" My conclusion was that Steem is not dying, but that it was ill. This article goes further and attempts to look at things that may be able to help Steem get well and hopefully flourish!

Before embarking on a new venture, it is often a good idea to research what others have done before. Since Steem uses 'stake' in a similar way as corporations use 'shares', why don't we examine the business model to see what they are doing?

Suppose we have a company that makes shoes. An investor buys shares in that company and the company uses that money to buy new equipment to automate some of its processes. That allows the company to make and sell more shoes. This makes the value of the shares in that company worth more.

Now lets consider if the investors demand a pair of shoes for each $100 they invested in the company: You can see that if there are a lot of investors, many of the shoes the company makes will not be sold, but instead go to the investors (who can sell or use the shoes as they please). Obviously, this eats into the profit margin of the company and the value of the shares is diminished from what it could be if all those extra shoes were sold.

However, if the investors were treated like any other paying customer, the company would be selling shoes both to the general public AND the investors, thereby increasing their sales and also the value of the shares. This is the normal business practice. NOBODY gets free shoes, regardless of the amount invested in the company.

In the case of Steem, the product being sold for "proof of work" is Steem and SBD. The price you pay for Steem and SBD should be the same for everyone (and it is if you buy it on the open market). However, if you work for it, the price is NOT NECESSARILY the same due to the voting system. If we apply Steem's voting system to a worker in the shoe factory, an employee who owns a lot of shares could get paid far more than other employees simply because the employees with large investments can vote to pay each other more and more with no cap! The more they earn, the more powerful their votes and the greater their influence on the next pay raise. This is a bizarre concept and would never work in a business model. The employees who are also investors would soon control the company and bring it down due to human greed.

HF19 simply altered the number of votes allowed and did give slightly more power to those with less invested, but ultimately it is still the same flawed system. The system itself could work if the people involved could control their natural tendencies. The question is, can we conquer human nature?

A POSSIBLE SOLUTION:

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Source of syringe used in my graphic.

Corporations allow investors to bring forth resolutions that are then voted on by the 'stake' or number of shares that each investor owns. Corporations do not ask investors how much they should pay their employees. Corporations do not ask investors how they should run their day to day operations. All that menial stuff is left to managers who are governed by the Board of Directors. The Board of Directors is guided by the voting shareholders.

Steem currently has no single place where shareholders can submit resolutions. It probably would help if a central repository were created for suggestions on how to improve steem. These resolutions can then be organized and voted on by shareholders using the weight of their vests. (All shareholders and not just witnesses.)

There has been a lot controversy about self-voting, distribution of rewards and community growth lately. I believe that by making up-votes a fixed amount regardless of vests, would eliminate many of the issues faced today. If we allow 30 votes per day and everyone's vote is worth the same, there would be less incentive to hoard votes or even to self-vote. Now we would really have a social platform where the community decides what is worthy and what is not. There is no longer any reason to chase the whales and it aleviates the frustration the whales have of trying to support the community. Everyone is now responsible equally! Yes, I know it was fun to be able to feel powerful and decide who gets a dollar and who gets 10 cents per vote, but we really need to think long term here. Good content will still get a lot of votes, and even though there may be less reward from whale votes, there won't be a lot of those fractional-cent votes either! The rewards might even go up if you have a large following of small accounts. Steem needs to be seen as a viable business and not a place to print money for a select few. You will be rich beyond your wildest dreams when Steem is worth as much as Bitcoin, so don't fret (I'll do some math below) about not being able to take a bunch of dollars out now from your weekly rewards.

What I'm saying is that the investor's reward comes when they sell their 'stake'. The fact that Steem has a system for earning income should not be a factor as to what an investor takes out now as "wages". The proof of work concept must be considered as wages and pay depends on how well you do your job, not how much you have invested!

If flagging is also done with a fixed vote value, then rogue whales will not be able to flag indiscriminately and kill someone's account just for fun or spite. Flagging becomes more effective because now it really is majority rule rather than might is right.

And finally, I will do some math to demonstrate what I'm talking about.

Let's suppose we have someone who is earning $200/day by self-voting, circle-voting or any other means.
$200 X 365 days per year = $73,000 per year. That's a very nice income!
However, because people see the current system as slanted in favour of early-adopters and feel hopelessly doomed to remaining dust, they abandon the platform and the value of Steem stays constant at around where it currently sits. After 5 years at this rate, our example person has made $365,000 profit.
$73,000 X 5 years = $365,000

Now let's look at what can happen if Steem becomes really popular because people see it as a well-oiled machine where everyone has a chance to make some decent money:
In just 8 years, Bitcoin has reached a value of $5,000 each and it is predicted to go over $1 Million each! Bitcoin is the pioneer of crypto-currencies, but Steem is the pioneer of a social media currency, so it stands a good chance of matching the success of bitcoin. However, for my calculations, I'm going ultra-conservative and suggesting (for our calculation) the value of Steem reaches only $500 after 5 years.
Someone with only 10,000 Steem at $500 each would have an account worth $5 Million! Plus, in that 5 year time period, they would have also earned a nice sum of money from their 'works'. If we assume an average cost of Steem to have been $1 when purchased, then
$5,000,000 - $10,000 = $4,990,000 profit.

So which sounds better: $4.99 Million plus, or $365,000?

Does that make sense? What do you think? Is it worth the risk to try and grab as much as you can now, or would it be better to do all you can to make the platform a huge success? Those who think they are being smart by milking the system are really only cheating themselves in the long run if they prevent the system from growing!

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"I believe that by making up-votes a fixed amount regardless of vests, would eliminate many of the issues faced today. If we allow 30 votes per day and everyone's vote is worth the same, there would be less incentive to hoard votes or even to self-vote."

I don't get it, is your goal to make Steem Power worthless, send SP to 0, and completely kill Steem and Steemit?

This suggestion fundamentally undoes everything that is Steemit.

"I'm going ultra-conservative and suggesting (for our calculation) the value of Steem reaches only $500 after 5 years."

A roughly 500x gain is "ultra-conservative"? This is so wrong.

A 2% gain annually, that's conservative.

Thanks for contributing to the discussion. Would you mind clarifying the statement:

I don't get it, is your goal to make Steem Power worthless, send SP to 0, and completely kill Steem and Steemit?

Without explaining why you think this, it doesn't help me to understand the problem. I think it is obvious by my explanations that I don't wish to harm Steem and am looking for solutions to current issues. It would help a lot if you explained why the ideas I presented would do harm.

SP would NOT be worthless because it is SP that gives you more weight when voting for resolutions.

A 2% gain annually, that's conservative.

I make more than 2% on my stocks and bonds! Crypto-currencies are doing way better than that. What has Bitcoin done over the past 5 years?

The main reason people buy more Steem is to be able to vote larger rewards. Removing this ability from Steem would make it objectively much less useful, and therefore worth much less.

Consider if there were two kinds of Steem, the normal one, and the one you propose. Which would be more expensive?

Most people don't care about witness votes, I doubt most would care about resolution votes. (Note: That's definitely bad, but it is what is.)

"I make more than 2% on my stocks and bonds!"

I bet you don't after inflation.

What Bitcoin has done is immaterial, and in no way conservative. Adding 500x to Steem would make it several times BTC's current market cap. Not likely imo.

Thanks for the clarification. That is a valid point. But it also has me wondering what would make Bitcoin so valuable then? There is no reward system with Bitcoin, so why are people buying that?

I'm of the mind that people are getting into crypto-currencies for the ability to escape banks, inflation, and of course speculation. Steem has all of that. The rewards system is just a bonus to get more people to jump on the Steem train. That is why I compare to Bitcoin. Is there something else I'm missing?

As for factoring in inflation, I make between 8 to 10 % and inflation is what? 1.5%? 3%?

I think real inflation is much closer to 6-10%. The CPI has been carefully gamed since the 1980s in a ton of ways, like hedonic adjustment, to keep it far lower than reality.

If you use the CPI formula from before they changed it to make it lower, it's like 8%.

Track your groceries prices for a year, you'll see.

"what would make Bitcoin so valuable then?"

The same thing that makes the US dollar valuable - it's the denominator for international (and oil) trade. People buy BTC to get into the market, because you kinda have to.

At this point, I think BTC is vastly overvalued and could crash to near 0. As you pointed out, there are many technically superior options. Bitcoin Cash is just the newest one.

Having Steem be just another in that list seems like a near-guarantee of Steem becoming one of the probable-90% of failed ICOs.

That's a very interesting point of view you have. Thanks for sharing.

If I'm understanding you correctly, then Steem is unique in that it allows investors to reap rewards without having to wait for gains in the value of the currency itself. This would make it a game only for those who have the funds to invest big-time and grab as much as they can before the penny drops and people realize what is really going on. At that point, the game is over and whoever cashed out got what they got and it's time to move on to another adventure?

You are probably correct about the real inflation rate being much higher than advertised. But then would that not favor the use of crypto-currencies? Would that fact alone not encourage mass-adoption of this new way of doing business? And with Steem having a unique feature, would that not bring Steem over the tipping point so that it is within the 10% that do NOT fail? I suspect that those coins that can be easily used to actually carry out transactions without a lot of encumbrances will be the ones that gain the most traction. It has to be very easy to spend your coins anywhere and everywhere.

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Another great crypto example is Bitshares.

Bitshares seems to be some of the best tech around. It's got a decentralized exchange where anyone can freely make assets, which means there are a lot of cool assets like Bit.gold (pegged to gold) and all sorts of other stuff.

It provides an exchange with no counterparty, it's very fast, etc.

Bitshares also has witnesses. In fact, the system is pretty similar to Steem and I've included the Steem witness' Bitshares witness rank, since many of them are both:

https://cryptofresh.com/witnesses

I would say the UI could use some work, it's a bit off-putting. Other than that, it's great. However, the market basically ignores it. People clamor into Poloniex and Btc-E, or whatever other risky exchange, because that's where the volume is. Self-fulfilling prophecy.

The market often picks an inferior or an irrational option simply because it looks better, or it's in the right place at the right time. As a result, it's often very disappointing to attempt to invest on fundamentals alone.

The market often picks an inferior or an irrational option

You are correct there too. I witnessed that when VHS beat out Beta in the video tape market.

Thanks again for all your input!

So many points I could respond to in this article, but let's choose just one for brevity's sake, @happyme.

I'm fairly new here but I have to wonder what might be lost if everyone was just awarded 30 votes per day. Currently, one has to pace themselves and choose their spots to cast their upvote. Vote too much too soon, and each successive vote becomes less effective.

With 30 arrows in the quiver, all of equal weight, there's far less incentive to be discerning. I expect that many people would simply fire all 30 arrows willy-nilly in expectation of collecting their reward. Not much thought would be given about the quality or content of the post, and folks would not be incentivized to protect the integrity of the community.

There's so much in this post to comment about: nice job! It's all quite thought provoking. I have upvoted this post and followed you so I will easily see future posts. Please feel free to follow me back.

In the meantime, good luck on Steem and enjoy your journey!

Thank-you for commenting. Not long ago, we used to have 40 votes per day each. This was reduced to 10 in exchange for 4 times the vote power so that minnows could actually see a number when they voted. Before that the fractional value was so small it showed up as zero. I don't believe people will just shoot their votes anywhere. At the current 10, I find myself always short of vote power because I don't have a slider to extend my number of votes. Those with sliders generally DO use them to increase the number of votes they can cast, so I really don't see having more votes as a problem. The idea is to dilute the value of self-voting by those with huge amounts of Steem Power. Maybe it would be even better to go back all the way to 40 votes per day and do away with the sliders? Either you like what the author wrote or you don't; keeps it simple.

My thoughts about the fixed value of the vote would be a calculation using the amount in the reward pool divided by the number of votes cast.

They're very good points you raised in your post, especially with relation to being shareholders. unfortunately it's not that simple.If you make votes equal weight, then there are going to be even more bots pop up draining the reward pool. I think if we can somehow disable bots on Steemit and disable self-voting and restrict repeat voting on the same accounts, then it could be a good solution. Also in terms of current 10 votes per day, it's only 10 votes max voting power, but I vote much more than that at, and my current voting power is around 50%.

Thanks for reading and commenting.
It is true, nothing is that simple. That's why it is good to discuss ideas and look at a situation from all angles. I am not fond of the vote-buying bots and would much rather have someone read my post than have a bot just automatically vote on it without even having opened the page. The bot isn't going to say, "oh this is worthy of a re-steem". It will simply do its job and move on. In that case I may as well have posted gibberish! I think bots like cheetah have their place here, but I do wish the rest would be treated by the community as a bad virus. Having multiple accounts is one of the big problems, and if only 1 account were permitted per person, then a 2nd account could not be created for the bot. Steemit has many problems but if we can over-come some of them we can just keep chipping away little by little until we get a better and better product. Having a central repository for ideas would be a good start.

Actually, each vote knocks off approximately 2% of your voting power, so even after just 1 vote, you are no longer at 100%. In order to always vote at 100% one would need to wait to recover vote power before voting again. The 10 votes per day is a simplified way of expressing that you can make 10 votes every 24 hours and recover fully in a single day. Even the 2% / vote is kind of misleading (I hate percentages) because as your vote power goes down, you lose less per vote. Someone did an experiment and found that when your VP is extremely low, you can continue to vote almost indefinitely because the amount taken off is so small. 2% of 100 is a whopping 2 points, but 2% of 1 is 0.02 (next to nothing)!

Let us also remember that when we had 40 votes each, it was also "pre-linear" days... as in voting weight was ^2. So someone with 20 SP would have 400 voting power, while someone with double at 40 SP would have 1600 voting power... which skewed influence very strongly in terms of those with a lot of SP, while minnow were little more than "dust."

As for self-voting, there was a proposal floated some months back to add to the base code to address the "abusive" part by simply having self-upvotes drain your voting power MUCH faster than votes for others. It was something like your first self-upvote was at full power, but a second one would drain 20% from your power, the next one would drain another 30% and so on. The counter argument was that people would just create more multiple accounts.

It's always tricky... when there's money involved, people start behaving badly. Even when it's possible to profit from behaving well.

Yes, I remember all that. It's not easy to devise a system that is fool-proof. I liked the idea of draining your vote-power for self-voting, but it still doesn't address the fact that newcomers are still dust and absolutely need to have a dolphin or whale show them some love. As more and more people join up, the competition for the attention of someone with lots of VP becomes fiercer and fiercer. This leads to attempting to 'game' the system or leave in frustration. Neither is good for the platform. However, if everyone drops 25 cents per vote, there is no longer that competition for the attention of a whale and everyone feels like they have an equivalent chance as everyone else. Lots of votes is how to make good rewards and that means growing your audience with good content. I realize that someone with 1,000 accounts can still 'game' that system too, but that is going on now anyway, so it won't make things worse. What it will do is give more hope and a feeling of inclusiveness to the newcomers. Some other solution needs to be thought up in order to stop the multiple accounts problem.

Solutions won't be found over night, but if we keep brain-storming, we may be able to improve things bit by bit. I think its also important to keep the long-range goals out in the open so that new people will see those goals and understand what they need to do to achieve those goals and what actions will hamper those goals.

Very nice perspective @happyme,
I like the way you think and analyze the situation, which is easy for even the low crypto-IQ like me could understand.

Now the question is, and we all win if we can answer it.
How do you get "Those who think they are being smart by milking the system" to see and understand what you are writing?

Not only that, But also
How you make them get out of their selfish desires "of getting the most now and who cares about the future" to cooperate and work with others to build steemit?

Many thanks for sharing your input :)
resteemed hoping it will catch some eyes (no big eyes come to my page though)
Upvoted and followed too :)

Very good points.

I have a sneaky feeling something better will ocme along, operating inthe way steemit was intended to be used, and structured in way, that rewards the input, and minimizes gaming the system

It can be done - but the motivation do has to come from the people who can change it. (ie not me).

I don't think that motivation exists. (hopefully I am wrong).
The more I see, the more I think steemit was a successful 'sell'. Selling on the concept, with only true motivations showing, once the profit was inbuilt.
Follow the money and all that.

If this doesn't work out, fine. There WILL be someone making a platform that does exactly what it says on the tin.
Why?- because creativity is product. Gaming isn't.

I like your philosophical interpretations :)

Thanks for that excellent contribution. I'm not sure why your reply didn't show up in my list of replies; I only found it because I was re-reading some other responses.

It is interesting to learn about what others are thinking because it alters my own perceptions about the platform and how it will turn out. I think my own expectations are becoming more realistic as I find out more about how others see this platform. Only time will tell for sure!

Many thanks for your comments, up-vote and re-steem.
Hopefully the math will show people that short-term gain pales compared to long-term gain, so if they truly are wanting the best possible return on investment, they should choose the long-term option. Also, if the voting (up or down) has the same weight for everyone, I believe it kind of forces everyone to behave. (Voting on resolutions for changes will still use weighted votes based on vests.)

STEEMit appeals to the selfish nature of humans to lure them in and then relies in the good will of the whales to show them a better world is possible...

There will always be gold diggers around this kind of thing.

It is up to us to shape it for better by investing and using the rewards system for encouraging good behavior.

The whales are already made and most of the initiatives to boost minnows and help them come from them or are financially backed by them.

I think on one side it is too late to change that, on the other side, your solution evens on the low side (instead of pulling up the minnows power you suggest to remove the whale's power) That is the equivalent of Marxist impoverishment to achieve an equal society...

We want to fix it? We need to work together as minnows to achieve influence as a whole.

When we start doing that, the inequalities of this system and other system's will be a thing of the past.

Many thanks for your input. It takes many heads to come up with a good solution.
You mentioned:

We need to work together as minnows to achieve influence as a whole.

This is absolutely true, but did you know that even if all the minnows actually agreed on something and voted en mass, their total vote strength would be a tiny fraction of the few whales? There is such a huge discrepancy in power that no matter what the minnows do, the whales can easily overpower them. I think the numbers are something like 1% control 90% of the vests.

That might be the truth now, but the sooner we start to work together, the faster we will be able to change that my friend.

Inmediate solutions are what have driven the world to the disaster that is today

I whole-heartedly agree with you there!
I run a weekly SBD giveaway with the intention of forming a self-help support group that does NOT include the use of vote-bots (I believe they are damaging the SOCIAL aspect of this site). I would be pleased to have you as a regular participant and contributor to that effort.

Well there are good bots and bad bots.
What you are describing sounds very similar to what i'm trying to implement in small scale for Venezuelan Steemians, and i think if we have a chat we both can share and expand our goals and points of view.

I can resume my main strategy into: using the techniques of evil to make good...

For example i made a twitter bot that monitors and auto Retweets #ServicioPublico hashtags in twitter during the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela.
If you autorize it your account helps spread the message requesting medical supplies... (You become part of a good bot-net)

I'm working in an ethical voting bot for encouraging participation in an Ágora (A pilot for my country but that can be replicated in every society)

Oh yes, that sounds wonderful. I'm certain that there are ways to do good using automation. However, this is a SOCIAL PLATFORM, so when we automate functions that should be done by humans, we remove the Social aspects from the platform. Many of the vote-bots were made with the intention of doing good, but there are side effects that were not expected. Of course some of those vote bots were made with the sole purpose of making more money for the creator of the bot. Unfortunately, both types do cause undesired side effects.

I have no clue about programming and creating these bots, so I do admire those who are able to do that sort of thing. I would be very happy to chat with you about working together for a common goal.

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The proof of work concept must be considered as wages and pay depends on how well you do your job, not how much you have invested!

If we allow 30 votes per day and everyone's vote is worth the same, there would be less incentive to hoard votes or even to self-vote. Now we would really have a social platform where the community decides what is worthy and what is not. There is no longer any reason to chase the whales and it aleviates the frustration the whales have of trying to support the community.

Brilliant Math dear @happyme!! You've just turn out to be a fine Social Observer with stunning artfulness beyond algebra theorems and crypto algorithms. And only for having you revealed in front of me like such guru of true solidary and coherent calculus with this article.... Here you have it!!

¡Upvoted & Resteemed! So we can produce together more watered eyes out there. To get the opulents SP stakeholders playing with actual ancient abacuses to make their right math better, fairer & lightning fast.

Cheers!! :)

Thank-you very much! I really hope that this reaches the eyes of those who can make changes.

Amazing and informative news..thanks to share keep it up bro

Thank you for replying to my post earlier @happyme, I found this on your blog and I like your idea for tweaking the system. I've followed, and I will pop by once in a while to see what other items of interest you have up!

Steem on :)

warmhug 2.jpg

Thanks! That's a very cute picture of the kitties.

I think the same but the cure for that is not the solution..the solution is Who is the nurse that will apply that and where..

For the owner of the shoes store, that's what he do.. Sell shoes.. while selling shoes..everything is ok.the rest is just the rest.

The Early adopters are the ones that are really enjoying this like Kings about the money issue and never were in our situation at all... What for to change everything?

And the new ones just dont know how about is this..they just copy and paste.

Your idea is brilliant, and NECESSARY but this platform was not thined to be social... the first meaning was other... And we can see the result here.

Thanks for being part of the discussion @leotrap.

What for to change everything?

Like I explained with the math... to keep the golden goose alive and laying more golden eggs!

Hope this can change! Are you in a Group or Discord to start changing this...I think we can really do something. You can find me at Discord... Peace V

I've only been on Discord once and don't really know what I'm doing there. I sometimes check Steemitchat.

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