Steem Prices Rising And You - Not So Awesome (SBD, Steem, and Steemians' Wallets)

in #steemit7 years ago (edited)

Steem prices are hitting new highs, even rising above $6 just this morning. Rejoice! Wait, maybe you shouldn't?

A jenga tower of money.jpg

I know it goes against the current grain, with all the people cheering and saluting over Steem's rise in price, but I'd like to take the time to explain to my fellow Steemians the relationship they have with each of the currency's values, and why Steem's rise is actually something that for most of us is actually quite bad.

Let's go over the way we get rewarded. For the sake of simplicity, we'll assume an Author Reward of $100.

In case you choose 100% SP (which you shouldn't), you'll receive $100 USD worth of Steem Power. When Steem is worth $2.5 USD, you'll get 50. When Steem is worth $5, you'll get half of that, 25.

In case you choose the 50/50 split between SBD and Steem, you will gain 50 Steem Backed Dollars, no matter what. As such, it is to your benefit when Steem Dollar is worth more. When Steem Dollar is worth $5 USD, that's $250 you can sell for other crypto. When Steem Dollars are worth $10 each, that's $500 you can gain in other crypto or transfer to fiat. Nice!

But what about Steem? I just showed you that while the value is identical in terms of USD, the amount differs. This is bad on multiple layers.

First, the manner in which we get said Steem is as "Steem Power," which impacts our voting strength. We're getting less of it. This means we will in turn get less of it down the line by way of curation rewards, and also that we might earn less SBD when we upvote our own posts. We likewise are able to lend less support to others through our upvotes. And remember, SBD is how we actually earn money here.
Finally, in terms of percentages, we'll be slower to catch up to "The Big Boys," so our relative voice in the community lags behind the higher Steem's value is, and thus the less Steem Power we gain.

Second, because we gain the reward in terms of Steem Power, which requires a 13-week period of "Powering Down" to actually cash out, the increased "worth" of all the Steem Power we've received prior to this crazy jump isn't readily accessible to us. And remember, this is the cryptocurrency market, can any of you guess what the value of a coin will be 13 weeks from now? Can you rely on it? I don't believe you do. In Crypto, it's monopoly money till you take it out. Steem Power is more monopoly money than most.

Third, and last, and related to the above, Steem is volatile. How volatile? Volatile enough that it can gain 100% in a single day. That means that while we gain less now, its value isn't something that we can rely on, and if it undergoes a correction, the end result is that we simply end up with less Steem Power, in absolute terms. With SBD and other cryptos, it's all about values. Up and down they go. Here, we actually use Steem Power, so ending up with less matters. And we can't cash out when it goes down.

So, what do we want? High SBD prices! What do we not want? High Steem prices!
High Steem prices may reduce the ability of new whales to buy in, which some people would consider good, and others consider bad. High Steem prices will attract more users, which again, has upsides and downsides (the biggest downside is that the reward pool is going to be split more ways).

But for me and you, the average Steemian? High Steem prices are no cause for joy. And I hope this little write-up will help clarify the situation.


Image from Pixabay.com

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You make a good point there @geekorner !
I also understand why SP is arranged like that...because ...to be harder to take the money out (13 weeks ) and to ensure the blogs succes.
If all steemians just suddenly take all their money out just imagine what great impact will be to Steemit community.
It will destabilize the whole market and value of steem.
Note: It did happen in the middle of 2016 from july till december steem got way down til 10 cents from 3 $

But!

With all these things that doesnt mean there is no need for improvement and for sure is pleanty room for improvement here because if we have a strong "backbone" Steem/SBD will grow to values bigger the 100$ and even 1000$ in the near future.

I'm certainly not recommending Steem Power to be allowed to be taken out more easily, I'm just pointing out that the way in which things are set up means that the cries of joy over Steem's rising value are premature.

As for Steem's value increasing the value of the platform, that's actually a thorny issue that is not nearly as simple as it appears, which I will cover this weekend / early next week when I do a big overview/breakdown of the Steemit system as a whole.

SBD though, I wouldn't rely on its value climbing nearly so high, because unlike Steem that has a "use", SBD has a constant downward pressure by being something you mostly look to sell. Also, while Steem is a solid cryptocurrency due to its marketshare, speed of transactions, and the amount of it out there, SBD does not share the marketshare, and the amount of it which is generated is quite limited. So I don't recommend banking on a rise in SBD, the external factors are against it.

Thanks man for explaining you make a good point there .
You are right about SBD even me I like to sell or convert it into steem, even that I know that it is important and I think last year some big guys (whales) from Steemit and Youtube were discussing on finding a way to encourage users to hold more SBD.
Sadly I dunno what the end result of that discussion was because I left for a 8 months contract on the sea and I could not track their "movements" on low speed internet.
Still I would love to see more of your posts about the matter so I put a follow there. Cheers!

It's possible I got some things wrong here. I'll explain what, why, and how it may affect things. If anyone has confirmation or corrections for what is posted in this comment, I'm all ears.

I assumed that the number we see in pay-out next to posts is actually mediated by "Steem Power Tokens," so if say, you have 100 "Steem Power Tokens," your vote will be worth "$100", which could then be worth more SBD if its prices rise, but give a constant value of SP, based on Steem's price.

But of course, Steemit likes to keep things obfuscated. The real currency in which votes are measured is VESTS. And the worth of an upvote in a way we can track (the $ figure) is the value of those VESTS in Steem, which does vary when Steem's price changes.

So, Steem goes up, what does it mean to us? It means the $ value of posts will go up. Of course, because the value of Steem is calculated over a 3.5 day average, a spike that goes down immediately after won't help you much, and even if the spike up becomes the new consistent value, you'll need to wait 3.5 days for the value to fully affect posts' payouts.

So, Steem goes up 100%. The payout of posts also goes up 100%. Let's look back at the situation and go step by step:

Current Steem value: $2.5 USD. Current SBD Value: $5 USD. Current post author payout: $100 (Steem numbers).
What do we get?
We receive 50 SBD, worth a total of $250 USD.
We receive 20 Steem Power, worth $50 USD, which we can't translate to money easily.

Double Steem Situation: Steem value: $5 USD. Current SBD Value: $5 USD. Current post author payout: $200 (Steem numbers).
What do we get?
We receive 100 SBD, worth a total of $500 USD.
We receive 40 Steem Power, worth $100 USD, which we can't translate to money easily.

If this is indeed the case, then Steem doubling in price does look like it's double the rewards for us, right? Well, I do want you to look at this post by @eonwarped. Steem's price doubling does not increase the amount of raw Steem out there, because we receive it in the form of SP, but it does double the amount of SBD, which in turn, increases supply, which should lower its value. Furthermore, if SBD ends up too common, it won't be printed at all, and we'd only receive SP (consult this post. And to reiterate, how much SBD gets printed is entirely dependent on the price of Steem, not SBD, so if Steem becomes "valuable" enough, you'll have to rely on powering down and it retaining its value

It's SBD being too common relative to the market cap of STEEM, and this is important. In your example, there's no risk of this SBD being too common, because the market cap of STEEM has increased, increasing all ceiling caps for SBD. So this is a good thing. The blockchain is willing to print more of these "debt tokens" because it is backed by a higher market cap.

So you see, the double steem situation is even better for the debt cap. More SBD ends up being printed but still it is all according to plan.

I'm more asking which situation is correct, the one in my main post, or the one here. Caveats can come later.

The main caveat is that, well, if the "correction case" is correct, SBD has an even larger downward push power when Steem rises, due to more of it being pumped out, while Steem's rising count is chained in SP.

Aha... I completely missed the part of the main post that is misleading, about "getting less SP the higher it is". The main point that was missing is that rewards start from STEEM, not from the $ amount displayed on the UI, and that is fixed and affected solely by SP and votes.

So the comment in this thread is what is correct. STEEM price doubling -> rewards doubling.

So much doom and gloom... Cheer up. 😎😉🙂

Oh, I'm very happy with SBD's rising prices. I'm just saying people shouldn't prematurely break out the champagne :D

Just enjoy a quiet beer for now. 🍺 😎

First, the manner in which we get said Steem is as "Steem Power," which impacts our voting strength. We're getting less of it. This means we will in turn get less of it down the line by way of curation rewards, and also that we might earn less SBD when we upvote our own posts. We likewise are able to lend less support to others through our upvotes.

One thing you have to take into account though is that the rewards pool is denominated in steem (6ish percent per year?) not in SBD so when steem's value goes up, the reward pool doesn't change in terms of steem. So your vote value in steem stays relatively the same which means that your vote value in SBD increases proportionally. So we don't get "less" steem we get the same amount but it's worth more.

In your example you start by saying that your reward is $100. This is where the mistake begins, your reward isn't $100 it's an amount of steem that is currently worth $100. So if the steem price is $1 and your reward is 100 steem then your author reward would be $100. When your post pays out, it gives you half (50 steem) in steem power and half (50 steem times current price of $1 = $50 SBD) in SBDs. But if the price goes up to $2 your reward is still 100 steem, it's now just worth $200. So when your post pays out it would give you 50 steem and 100 SBD (50 steem times $2).
This is why when you look at your pending payouts the amounts change even when the number of votes stays the same. It fluctuates based on the current price of steem.

we might earn less SBD when we upvote our own posts. We likewise are able to lend less support to others through our upvotes.

Lets say that the reward pool is 100 Steem. If steem is worth $1 than the reward pool is worth $100. Your vote affects lets say, 0.1% of the reward pool. Your vote would be worth 0.1 steem ($0.10).
Now lets say that steem price rises to $10! So now the reward pool is worth $1000 your vote is still worth .1% of the reward pool, or 0.1 steem, but now that steem is worth $1. So a higher price actually lets us all give more rewards to others and ourselves.

Your point about trying to catch up with the whales is completely true though! But other than that, a rising steem price benefits all of us.

Hopefully that makes a little sense. I tried to keep it simple.

(upvoted for visiability)

See my own reply to myself. Sorry for the late reply here. And as I said below, everything is actually denominated in VESTS, and only translated to Steem/SBD later.

Congratulations! This post has been upvoted from the communal account, @minnowsupport, by Zillion Prime from the Minnow Support Project. It's a witness project run by aggroed, ausbitbank, teamsteem, theprophet0, someguy123, neoxian, followbtcnews/crimsonclad, and netuoso. The goal is to help Steemit grow by supporting Minnows and creating a social network. Please find us in the Peace, Abundance, and Liberty Network (PALnet) Discord Channel. It's a completely public and open space to all members of the Steemit community who voluntarily choose to be there.

If you would like to delegate to the Minnow Support Project you can do so by clicking on the following links: 50SP, 100SP, 250SP, 500SP, 1000SP, 5000SP. Be sure to leave at least 50SP undelegated on your account.

Wow, I was actually happy they where both rising.

Same, I mean, I think people assume that steem does more to your SP than it actually does... Idk, I feel like it's kind of a waste unless you get giant lump sums and can devote some to SP while you power down over time... Basically just rebuilding what you lose by continuing to post.

I've been pondering on this as commented in a post by @papa-pepper. I was planning increase my voice by buying SP, but now my SBD can buy less of it. Hence, I'm holding for now until the ratio improves. The question, however, is "Will it really improve soon?".

The question, however, is "Will it really improve soon?".

Sadly, I can't answer that question. I'm a system analyst and meta-analyst, not a stock analyst :<

Will there be a correction? Probably. Coins don't tend to leap like this out of nowhere without one.

The rise in steem price stopped me from converting my steem dollars to steem power this morning

When Steem is worth $2.5 USD, you'll get 50. When Steem is worth $5, you'll get half of that, 20.

You mean 25?

I partly agree with some of the reasons you mentioned. And I truly agree with that we need high SBD prices. I would be really happy if it will stay at 10$ or even grow more.

Err, yes. Hadn't had breakfast yet. Fixed.

I wrote an article that explains this in more detail if you're interested.
https://steemit.com/steem/@littlejoeward/could-a-high-steem-price-actually-be-bad-for-us

Yup, you can see in the comment section that I posted a correction. Note though, that Steem's rise also increases the supply of SBD, which according to standard wisdom should lead to a reduction in its price.

Though, to be exact about your piece, everything is actually denominated in VESTS. It just translates to Steem and SBD later, which is the real obfuscation that made things

Yeah, that's a good point. I admit that I haven't researched exactly how steem and vests are related... I'm also not quite up to speed on exactly how SBDs work. I just need to sit down and think it through a bit more...

Read this, which followed me explaining the situation to him, so he could explain it to others, because yeah, it's not the easiest to figure out, and people had to spend quite some time following my post above to get me to see what is going on here.

And so, we spread understanding in waves around us. Ever-growing circles.

Thanks! I actually just read that post yesterday. I will have to read it again and let it sink in all the way because yesterday I was like "Yeah, that makes sense" and now I have no idea! haha. Yeah, hopefully we can keep it spreading to everyone! :)

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