It’s so easy to become a millionaire with Steem

in #steemit8 years ago (edited)

Starting with just a $400 initial investment and generating only a meager $2 (½ STEEM) in daily blogging rewards, the total value of your STEEM POWER could be worth more than $1 million within 5 years!

This is the power of compound interest, as exemplified by the following chart.

compound interest example

Specifics

This example presumes you’ve received 10 free STEEM on signup, purchased 90 more STEEM at an exchange price of $4.6, powered up all your STEEM to STEEM POWER, and that the price of STEEM rises from $4.6 to $46 over the next 5 years. The computation is shown below and note that 23,945 STEEM × $46 = $1,101,470.

compound interest example details
(click the image to go to the calculator)

The expectation of a 10X (1000%) rise in the STEEM price over the next 5 years is not totally unreasonably given the very large market capitalizations of traditional social networking behemoths such as Facebook and Twitter. Even with only a double in the STEEM price over 5 years, the above example would end up worth $220,294.

UPDATE: for those readers who are contemplating that this blog post is shilling or painting too rosy of expections, please note that I explained a scenario when a person invests $400 and a meager $2 a day in blogging effort (which is also probably paying them much more than $2 in terms of a new technology learning and social networking experience), so basically they have risked nearly nothing for the shot at up to a $million in 5 years. Please also read my comment replies for more detailed insight into my reasoning.

Steem’s Eventual 90% Interest Rate

The annual interest rate paid for holding STEEM POWER will eventually stabilize at 90%! That is 0.176% per day¹ and 1.24% per week.

Whereas, no interest is paid for holding STEEM.

Those who power up their STEEM to STEEM POWER gain at least 90% more STEEM POWER every year.

Steem’s Current 354% Interest Rate!

Per @james-show's comment post below, the current approximate annual average rate of interest is 354% and will decline gradually as follows over the next months.

YearMonthApproximate Annualized Interest Rate
2016July354%
2016August266%
2016September214%
2016October179%
2016November153%
2016December134%
2017January120%
2017February108%
2017March98%
2017April90%

Steem’s Ongoing Stock Split

The payout of the interest in Steem is a forward stock split.

A forward stock split adds to the number of stocks you own, but it does not increase your investment value. When a company issues a stock split, those who already own stock in the company end up with more stock without making additional investments. If a company issues one share for each outstanding share, then the number of shares doubles, and this is called a 2-for-1 stock split. Because nothing has happened to increase the company’s value, the effect of doubling the number of shares reduces the stock price to half and keeps the company’s value the same. In another example, if a company announces two shares per share outstanding in a 3-for-1 stock split, each share value would fall to a third to keep the company’s value the same.

Steem² mints new STEEM tokens every 3 seconds when a new block is created on it’s blockchain, distributed to pay for our blogging rewards and the miners who validate to secure the Steem blockchain.

Additionally, 9 STEEM POWER are minted for every 1 STEEM that is minted; and the newly minted STEEM POWER are distributed to every existing holder of STEEM POWER proportional to each holders’ share of the total STEEM POWER. This is a forward stock split because every holders’ proportion of the total STEEM POWER remains constant.

Given that the total increase of newly minted tokens is 100% per year (i.e. a doubling of Steem’s tokens annually) and the STEEM POWER is 9/10ths of the increase, then 90% of Steem’s market capitalization is paid as interest to STEEM POWER holders every year.

Whereas, STEEM holders are paid nothing while the total supply of tokens is debased by 100% annually. Thus, STEEM holders lose 0.19% per day³, 1.34% per week, and 50% per year of the total Steem market capitalization.

An interesting effect is that if the price of STEEM did not increase, the market exchange value of each STEEM POWER holders’ holdings would still increase by 90%! And even if the price of STEEM decreased by 50%, the market exchange value of each STEEM POWER holders’ holdings would only decline by 5%⁴.

Whereas, in the former case STEEM holders would lose 50% and in the latter 75% of their market exchange value.

Steem’s Funding Model

The reasons someone might hold STEEM instead of STEEM POWER is that STEEM POWER can only be cashed out (i.e. powered down) in 104 equisized weekly withdrawals. Thus for example, a speculator who expects a rapid rise and then decline in the price might prefer the small weekly 1.34% debasement of STEEM’s value in order to cash out a large expected increase in the price before an expected decline. Additionally all transfers must be done in STEEM, i.e. STEEM POWER must be powered down before they can be transferred.

It is hoped that the transfers due to speculation and payments will dwarf the transfers due to entering and exiting STEEM POWER holdings, so that the funding for blogging rewards and mining is paid as a cost of doing transfers, and not effectively paid by the long-term investors. Because if this did not end up being the case, and STEEM POWER investors were paying the lion’s share of the debasement (such as if almost everyone converted their STEEM to STEEM POWER at all times), then Steem would likely be considered an unsustainable long-term investment (without a revenue model and all funding paid by investors) and the price might collapse. This is why it will be very important to develop Steem’s promotion to speculators and the development of Steem’s ecosystem for payments.

Steem is generating revenue for STEEM POWER investors taken from those who hold STEEM instead of STEEM POWER. We need to upgrade our conceptualization of revenue. Revenue is any gain in value not paid by the long-term investors! It is actually quite a clever paradigm-shift innovation on the definition of a revenue generating investment.

Steem’s Inflationary Model

Because Steem is always minting new tokens, then the STEEM market exchange price is unlikely to rise as rapidly as it probably would have if the Steem design had been deflationary. An alternative design for Steem would have been to take STEEM tokens from STEEM holders instead of minting new tokens. The market valuation effects would be the same on STEEM and STEEM POWER holders.

The only difference would be that bullish speculators would have more motivation to hold STEEM. But the psychological differences would be that STEEM holders would see their number of STEEM decreasing and STEEM POWER holders would see their number of STEEM POWER not increasing. Yet the price would hypothetically be rising faster to compensate and typically speculators tend to chase a rising price, so the price might even be rising more than proportionally faster. I can understand the psychological reasons this alternative design choice was not chosen.

Note the proposed alternative deflationary design (which is not the current design of Steem) could reach zero STEEM money supply (not STEEM POWER) which would then necessitate either a switch to the inflationary design until the supply of STEEM was restored or taking STEEM POWER tokens from STEEM POWER holders. The occurrence of such a “bottoming out” condition would indicate insufficient speculation and transactional demand for STEEM, to prevent debasement of the long-term STEEM POWER investors.


¹ Enter 1.9 in your calculator, press the xⁿ exponentiation key, enter (1÷365), and press the = key.
² ‘Steem’ is the name of the DPoS blockchain database and ruleset which powers Steemit.com.
³ Enter 2.0 in your calculator, press the xⁿ exponentiation key, enter (1÷365), and press the = key.
⁴ 50% of 190% = 95%

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As someone who has written multiple (somewhat incorrect) posts on the Steem Power "interest" (which I now better understand to be share dilution), I understand how confusing this stuff is. You might want to clarify what aspect of what you're describing is actually exponential. @bacchist has written a rebuttal to your post, which you might want to address to ensure your audience has a correct understanding of how Steem actually works: https://steemit.com/interest/@bacchist/steem-power-interest-is-not-compound-interest

Well, that certainly sounds better than "He is wrong!" Remember, the blockchain is forever, just like your reputation here.

I am not trying to hide anything. I thought some seconds after posting that 'incorrect' is a more meaningful word than 'wrong'. I was in quite a rush to quickly respond to @bacchist's FUD and lies. He knows how to contact me on Bitcointalk via private message. He could have discussed the issue with me first, instead of putting his foot in his mouth.

and that the price of STEEM rises from $4.6 to $46 over the next 5 years this is just your opinions, right? you should remember this crypto world, many reason can make price up and also down too, its my opinions

Well I’d say it is my informed opinion that it could possibly spike high (of course not guaranteed) given I've been extensively researching, designing, and studying crypto-currencies and blockchain 2.0 designs since 2013, c.f. my introduceyourself blog post. See also my future market capitalization computation and comparison to Facebook.

I also pointed out the same compounding scenario would “end up worth $220,294” in the event the STEEM price merely doubles in 5 years (which IMO isn’t taking into account Ethereum’s recent stratospheric price rise over only several months). And the computation doesn’t even include the 354% compounding that is going right now.

Then again, I also pointed out a risk of failure in the “Steem’s Funding Model” section. So I am not saying any outcome is a 100% certainty. Also another important factor is the peak price might not end up being the average price during the 104 weeks required to cash out a STEEM POWER holding.

Also we perhaps need to consider other factors outside the scope of this blog post, such as potential blockchain 2.0 competitors which might copy and somehow improve on Steem.

Thanks for your time in the original post and the follow up posts! You didn't have to take your time to try and lay this out for everyone, but I'm glad you did. I'm in it for the long term! Thanks again....

You are forgetting one CRUCIAL element: when more and more people sell their STEEM and STEEM DOLLARS, the prize will fall and your STEEM DOLLARS won't be worth anywhere close to $1 anymore.

Not necessarily true if (and that is a big if) they can generate significant transaction volume from users per what I explained in the “Steem’s Funding Model” section.

The sustainable business model and valuation requires they generate features which will drive transaction volume. We are discussing this aspect in more detail at Bitcointalk.org.

If everyone is becoming a millionaire, everyone wants to cash out. All that insane sell pressure is going to crash your value. Not only that, if you are a millionaire and people are only investing $100,000 every month into STEEM, it's gonna take a real long time to cash out. Imagine if 1000's of millionaires try to do that. You need to stay realistic. Right now the it might look like becoming a millionaire with SteemIt might be doable, and it probably will happen for some people if the platform survives the next couple of years, but certainly not everyone will be able to do it. Maybe a few dozen people, but certainly not thousands or 10's of thousands.

It is frustrating for me when I see that readers have not comprehended the “Steem’s Funding Model” section. Please re-read that section and understand that if transactions can become very great, then the transactions can pay for those who want to cash out, the cost of the blog rewards, and the fees of the miners. Whether transactions can be scaled that high is another question that I didn’t discuss as it is out-of-scope of this blog post. I can’t put every possible issue about Steem in one blog post.

You are making the mistake of assuming that the only incoming¹ demand for STEEM is for investment. If there are compelling reasons to do transactions in STEEM and volume can be very great, then this demand for STEEM can fund everything given the fact that STEEM is debased 90% relative to STEEM POWER.

You readers really need to wrap your mind about this new way of structuring revenue. It seems some of you can only visualize the math from the simplest way, which is causing you to not grasp the paradigm-shift.

If everyone is becoming a millionaire, everyone wants to cash out.

If Steem becomes a huge ecosystem, maybe they never want to cash out. Maybe Steem becomes their unit-of-account, life-long savings account, and they pay for everything from it.

Steem might fail at any moment now, you never know. If it survives the next couple of years, it's going to magical indeed :)

I agree. It really could fail. Or it could possibly be magical.

¹ Include even internal demand originating from STEEM POWER powered down to STEEM and transacted.

It's not that i can't wrap my mind around it, i'm just not going to dream and first see how the next 6-24 months develop. Steem might fail at any moment now, you never know. If it survives the next couple of years, it's going to magical indeed :)

The annual interest rate paid for holding STEEM POWER is 90%!

I am truly tired of read this incorrect info again and again. It is MUCH more for the next several years.

Thanks! You are correct, except not for “the next several years”. My calculations were based on the minimum rate of interest that will be the case by May 2017 and ongoing. The white paper explains that at a minimum ~50 STEEM are created every block (or which 90% or ~45 are distributed to STEEM POWER) and a block is produced every 3 seconds, thus 50 × 20 × 60 × 24 × 365 = 525,600,000 STEEM are minted per year. Given the current outstanding money supply is approximately 91 million STEEM, the current annual debasement rate is 525 × 0.90 ÷ 91 = 519% per year! OMG!

I will add this information to my blog post.

1st Actually min:

  • each block -1 steem for witnesses, 1 steem for content creators, 1 steem for curators, 1 steem for liquidity rewards
  • for each of the above 4 Steem 9x STEEM POWER is created
    Which makes the total 40 per block (or 800/min)

2nd The actual current supply is 107,869,765 STEEM (source steemd.com)

But generally yes, pretty astounding percent.

I see I was in a rush and I included the 1 STEEM for PoW, but that was reduced after block 864,000. I will correct my computations in the blog post. I didn’t know that coinmarketcap’s money supply data was lagging that much.

Wouldn't compound interest mean that @dantheman will have more money than it's possible to actually possess?

No. The account @dantheman would have after 5 years 105 million STEEM POWER, so at $46 that would be $4.8 billion. The next Mark Zuckerberg?

dantheman compounding example

You can't assume steem will be worth 46. If you knew that steem will be worth that are you investing your life savings.

You can't assume steem will be worth 46. If you knew that steem will be worth that are you investing your life savings.

I did not suggest anyone invest their life savings.

I discussed the scenario where a steemian invests a meager $400 and $2 of blogging effort per day (which probably returns that individual a profit every day in learning and social networking experience).

I did not only discuss a $46 scenario. I discussed many scenarios including a doubling of the price, complete failure, and even in the comments I have mentioned just increasing your blogging effort to $9 (2 STEEM) per day of earnings will radically change the computations even with only a doubling in the price. That is why I provided a link to and example instructions for the scenario calculator, so readers can do “what if” analysis that fits their situation.

Nice article. Unfortunately, I cannot put your plan into place. My ball and chain will not let me use anymore fiat to purchase BTC or any other CC. Due to a small inheritance, my ball and chain can claim to be the contributor to most of the money in our joint account. I'm limited to the paltry 2 BTC that I have, and I am certainly not going to put all of my eggs in one basket. Furthermore, I doubt that I will ever be able to construct good enough posts to earn $2.00 per day. Most of this has to do with my ball and chain again. I start getting the nagging if I spend an inordinate time on the internet, rather than hang on every word my ball and chain utters. One could say that I should stand up to my woman, but I am gay, so he's a man. Also, if we came to blows, I am likely to lose that fight. LOLZ

Explain to me your 46 dollar price expectation?

I also pointed out the same compounding scenario would “end up worth $220,294” in the event the STEEM price merely doubles in 5 years (which IMO isn’t taking into account Ethereum’s recent stratospheric price rise over only several months). So I wasn’t only claiming the $46 scenario. And the computation doesn’t even include the 354% compounding that is going right now.

I showed one very easy scenario for reaching a millionaire assuming the best outcome. However, there are other scenarios where one could invest more early and/or earn for example $9 (2 STEEM) a day from blogging and achieve the millionaire computation at a much lower future STEEM price and/or sooner than 5 years. I provided a link to the calculator to do “what if” scenario analysis and I gave example computations so that readers will know how to use the calculator for this sort of computation. I think I have provided much information to aid readers to make up their own minds.

Steem’s money supply will be roughly 421 million tokens in approximately 9 months, then it will double annually, so that gives us an estimated 7 billion tokens money supply at the end of 5 years. So at $46, the market capitalization would be $322 billion. Facebook’s market capitalization is $348 billion today, and that doesn’t include 5 more years of growth and inflation. Facebook only has roughly 1/6th of the world’s population signed up thus far.

I have also pointed out risks of failure for Steem’s business model. So I hope readers aren’t pigeon-holing my blog post by assuming that I claimed only a scenario of a $46 future price.

Unrealistic that Steem will ever be as big as Facebook. Bitcoin on the other hand has 10 billion in market cap which is more realistic. What happens at 10 billion market cap?

Why unrealistic? Provide a cogent argument. Just saying it won’t, is not informational. What is your logic? Steem is a paradigm-shit model. Sometimes these change the world.

Now that's just irresponsible shilling.

Could you even get a clue that I explained a scenario when a person invests $400 and $2 a day in blogging effort, so basically they have risked nearly nothing for the shot at up to a $million in 5 years. How the heck do you compute that as irresponsible?

Perhaps my follow up comments will give you slightly higher reading comprehension than you were able to achieve when you apparently did not read my blog post carefully and entirely.

I suggest you read the following three:

https://steemit.com/steemit/@anonymint/it-s-so-easy-to-become-a-millionaire-with-steem#@anonymint/re-syadastinasti-re-anonymint-it-s-so-easy-to-become-a-millionaire-with-steem-20160722t022037599z

https://steemit.com/steemit/@anonymint/it-s-so-easy-to-become-a-millionaire-with-steem#@anonymint/re-magdalena-re-anonymint-it-s-so-easy-to-become-a-millionaire-with-steem-20160721t220901401z

https://steemit.com/steemit/@anonymint/it-s-so-easy-to-become-a-millionaire-with-steem#@anonymint/re-aaseb-re-anonymint-it-s-so-easy-to-become-a-millionaire-with-steem-20160721t213537359z

This blog post is chock full of research on the specifics of the design and funding model. I am amazed to read that you found no value in my past week of intense research and discussion focused solely on Steem which is summarized to some degree in this blog post. I am a blockchain developer and I work full-time on this sort of stuff. I really do not appreciate your snide, flippant, and incorrect remark.

Please be more circumspect. We and Streemit will not benefit from strife and flame wars.

I am also skeptical of whether Steemit can be sustainable, which is what I explained in the section about the funding model. Yet I also recognize that this is a paradigm-shift that has the potential overtake social networking if they can use their wealth to develop something very diverse and capturing many transactions. They obviously do not plan to stay stuck only on blogging. Perhaps you should do some research about the other features and ecosystem projects they are working on. They are loaded with $millions of capital now to pay for development.

It is just irresponsible shilling. Read your posts again lol.

It is just irresponsible shilling. Read your posts again lol.

Could you even get a clue that I explained a scenario when a person invests $400 and $2 a day in blogging effort, so basically they have risked nearly nothing for the shot at up to a $million in 5 years. How the heck do you compute that as irresponsible?

Explain why it is irresponsible? Develop your argument with a detailed explanation. Who am I responsible for? Do you mean to imply that readers are too stupid to analyze my blog post and make their own decision of the merits? Thus I am responsible for them as if they are my children?

I don’t see what is irresponsible in terms of explaining the different ways the Steem investment can be analyzed. The entire point of discussion is to consider various perspectives.

Rather I think the issue here is you are a troll who can’t make a cogent point. Are you advocating not explaining to people about the compounding feature of Steem? Are you advocating not presenting the market capitalization of Facebook as a comparison? And why?

We have about the same amount of SP so this was a good post for me.

@Anonymint enjoy reading your posts and also the posts that you have posted back in the day on bitcointalk forums. I am usually a lurker but find myself posting more because of steem's incentives. On bitcoin talk forum I had over 25+ days logged but rarely posted.

Thanks for the post and calculations.

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