Opinion Poll: What Will Happen To The Bots If Steem Drops Under $1?
In case you are living under a rock lately, you have seen the incredible 3 week plunge of all crypto (including steem and sbd). For those of you that use bots, you are used to taking your sbd and using it to buy votes from those bots.
However...
With the drop in the value of steem/sbd, 3 major things have happened:
#1 The voting values have been destroyed and even the larger bots have seen the amount they cast go down.
#2 The amount of sbd you are getting now at $1.30 steem is only 1/3 of what you used to get. That means that for every bot vote you are getting less and less sbd, thus the available pool of sbd for bot investors is shrinking by the day at a pretty rapid rate.
#3 The typical bot buyer has been hammered in this 3 week plunge. So not only are they getting less sbd upon payout, they are getting far less payouts because the vote values have dropped with steem. In other words, they have lost a considerable amount of money over the last 3 weeks.
All of this leads to a situation where the bot owners have lost their voting values at a time where their customers have lost their amount they can invest. So a drop in supply AND demand... hmmm
So that got me to thinking...
What if the value of steem keeps dropping and actually cracks the $1 mark for an extended period of time? Will they continue to shrink the amount of sbd upon payout to the point where we get 1 to 5%? Will the already damaged bots limp along and survive, or will they give up and go home like so many we have seen leave? And finally, what about the customers, will they keep using the bots if they keep losing money?
Here is a simple poll that I am taking to get your opinions... Feel free though to comment in the comments section and elaborate more on your thoughts.
Disclaimer: I am not passing judgement on bots in this post. I have used them and continue to use them in various ways. I also understand the people that don't use them and want them to shrivel up. So this is a survey only, it is not meant to sway anyone's opinion either way
To take the poll click here
To see the results of the poll click here
i have no idea, i see my vote worth go down from close to 0.06 to nearly exactly 0.04 in somewhat over a week , i see the sbd payout looking very different from the 50/50 i'm used to and yes, the payouts are really starting to look like nothing's worth the effort unless you get 500+ votes per post
if i were paranoid i would think a few content nazis (as i call them) are actively trying to sabotage bot-voting (something that would affect about all of the lower plankton and minnows in a very bad way afaik) or otherwise some external whale is wrecking the price down to make way for "their own product"
whatever it is, there's not enough increase in accounts to justify the price drop over less than a month if this were only plankton selling off what they got right away, especially since the prices are so low at plankton level you wouldnt get anything lol
the more i look at it over a few weeks time the more it reeks of "internal regulation" ... like the governments always try ...
which always ends up ...
with a recovery period i guess
i hope ...
my vote dropped from 0.043 to 0.041 overnight again i just see, if it sinks further i can't even divide over two anymore
i find myself forced to spend more votes on me simply because they're too low, whatever it is
it's counterproductive :)
Hey @rudyardcatling, don't let this get you down... In reality the price of steem going down is the BEST thing that could happen to you and me.... Even though our votes are worth much less, we still receive votes from others... Those votes actually earn more SP than the votes that we got when steem was much higher. I know it doesn't seem to make sense, but its true. Right now is the time to be happy and actually to hope that steem drops by another 50%... That would really make us pick up worth relative to everyone else... Its like a reset basically. And it will be very helpful because your friends and followers will also pick up value along with you... Watch how much SP you pick up in the next month and you will see what I'm talking about!
If you even need me to explain this further, please let me know... I love to have people understand this concept because it is our chance to catch up!
hi @davemccoy ... im sorry im seriously behind on the replies :) ... im not much of a live chatter but i keep a discord channel for my vault alts @ubasti , @sakhmet and @maahes
at
https://discord.gg/TB4XDdU
i usually DO chek all comments on this one but ive been living afk for a few weeks lol , also some hypernervosity issues.
I always like to connec twith people who understand the mechanics behind it, ive been on steemit for months and i dont even have a roadmap really, let alone total insight in the system. If you're still reading this, i should catch up on the replies now, otherwise , feel free to lurk in discord and leave private messages. I try to check that once a day at least in case anyone has complaints or questions so private message there is like email ... i could even give email but im not really the best at daily mailings either :p thanks for the explanation, i have no doubt it will pick up again but i cant shake the feeling that whats goin on right now is artificial
@rudyardcatling ... fwiw, I'm behind myself! I'm glad to see you reached out and you can get me anytime on discord too... I'm at davemccoy#2479 and I definitely am more on top of that then here since the replies are so much faster! I will connect to you now though :)
i have sent a request ... might take half a day or a day before i reply sometimes though, i'm not "always on" lol
@rudyardcatling I got it! And no worries on the replies back. You have established the link so we are connected... So we are all good 😀
so we are, i guess the messaging will be better continued on discord then, thanks
@rudyardcatling I got that you signed up for byteballs... if you send me your receiving address I will send you the referral fee I got and add to your "free money" received :D 😀
I think you need a bot, to collect all the opinions and then send them to another bot, that polls opinions in separate categories. Then the polling bots can collate that information and spit out a poll about bots. To get an accurate outcome or representation of opinions to this poll, you also need to upvote your post with a bid-bot, that is based on opinions of the bid-bot owners, which also means you need to create a separate opinion poll for bid-bot owners.
After this process has been completed, you can fuse the different opinions into a collective and shove them all into a hat. Draw one opinion at a time, being careful not to interfere with the natural process of the bidding of opinions, as this may skew the final results of the poll, of either the bid-bot owners or the non bod-bot owners.
If there is any confusion over any of this, we can create an opinion poll on hats, to make sure there is no bias towards either bid-bot owners, or non bid-bot owners that wear hats.
Just my opinion....Good luck Dave!
@palikari123 lol... I am confused.... Can I take a poll to see if anyone else understands? Maybe we could give out upvotes from the bots to the poll winners to help us explain what the hell you are saying! 😭
Yes, you can take a poll to to see if anyone else understands. Just make sure that while trying to gain an understanding of the opinions of any confusion resulting from any polls taken, that you equally involve non-bid bot owners, as well as bid-bot owners, that are both confused and not confused. Otherwise you may create a shit storm.
That opens up a completely new can of worms, that may confuse opinion polls that conclude who the winners of the polls are.
Then we also have a different problem which needs to be addressed! The actual upvotes from the bots who may get confused themselves, causing them to malfunction and upvote opinions of bid-bot owners that wear hats and ignore opinions of bid-bot owners who don't wear hats.
This would severely undermine the integrity of the opinion polls from the get-go and end up in an uprising of bid-bots who will completely take over the platform, rendering any opinion polls completely irrelevant.
At that point we would need to poll bid-bot coders on what to do next and conclude who the winners of the opinion polls of the confused hat wearing bid-bot owners or non bid bot owners actually are.
I hope like hell that this makes sense...good luck!
@palikari123 lol... You get lucky... I can paste a pic in fastreply! Maybe that is why it is fast! lol
I was going to send you a pic of a many crying helplessly because he couldn't figure it out :P
I think that people will pull out they delegations to the bots( just like people taken money from the banks because of the small to none returns and investing it into the something else).Small users will go away.
PS. Can you tell me how to use steemconnect?( I want to buy steemmonsters starter pack and can't do it without steemconnect.
Hey @marinaart thanks for the comment and I agree that the delegations to the bots will be way down the lower we go... In fact they may also realize that maybe we want artists and community builders here to help keep people around when they stumble in... That would mean that some of that SP will be delegated to places that support those kind of groups!
To answer your question on steemconnect, it is very easy... Just copy your posting key and when you click on it they will ask you for your steemit name and password/key... You just put in your posting key as the password... It should autosave the decision and you won't need to do that anymore. Please let me know if you can't figure it out, I love steem monsters and would love to see you playing it!... If you are on discord, you can contact me direct via direct message at davemccoy#2479 ... I can walk you through with screen shots... Plus you can always contact me there for any questions! :)
Sadly I am getting _ you password not valid _when I am trying to complete transaction throug steemconnect on steemmonsters website. II tryied to do it yestoday few times and today few times- nothing worked so far.( I also was login into the steemconnect account from the same page)
@marinaart on your posting key make sure you are getting your "private posting key" and not the public key... When you go to your wallet you will see permissions and the first one will be your posting key... BUT you have to click on the button on the right that says "show private key"... then copy and paste that... That has to work. The only other problem is typing in the wrong username but I doubt you would make that mistake... Let me know how you did, if you didn't then I will think of another way to help you!
A did all of it and it did not work. Same posting key I used to open steemconnect account and it worked great.Will try again tomorrow I guess.
@marinaart hmmm... if you get me on discord I can send you screenshots... it should work... I can also hook you up with the tech guru of the site @yabapmatt and he could probably tell you if there is something wrong specifically with your account. Just let me know, I want you to get your deck and get to know how this is going to work!
I left reply on steemmonsters blog post about my problem. Can I buy starter pack in any other way then troug steemconnect. It looks like my account on steemmonsters do not see my account on steemconnect but I can login on each of them without problems. To make a buy they ask me for active key or owners key, not privat posting one. I used private posting key only when I registered with Steemconnect and Steemmonsters. I hope I can fined other ways to pay for the game.
ok good that you connected to steemmonsters.. that is a good thing... So if I understand you're point, you don't want to put your active key into steemconnect to complete the purchase. Is that correct?
Said another way, you now have the ability to log in to steemmonsters.com yet can't do a purchase without giving your active key?
I will speak directly with the co-founder once I fully understand what to ask him for you ;)
I think the bots may slow down now, but when things get profitable again (and they will), they'll probably just pick it all back up again. Too much money to be made :) And I haven't looked too closely, but I have a feeling there's many still using them now, just not realizing how much they're losing doing it.
Thank you for your thoughts Lynn... and I agree if it goes back up right now it will be like it never went down.... And you also make another good point (but sad) that most people don't even know if they are winning or losing on them.
Well. Since you've got over 'the malaise' @lynnecoyle1 and I'm still in it, i'm going to piggy back on your response since it's so close to what I would have written myself.
So . . . I agree with Lynne. 😂 💙
Piggy back as long as you need to @gillianpearce :)
Thank you @lynncoyle1. I could do with piggy backing on your get up and go energy. I've been trawling around the internet all afternoon looking for somewhere to take myself off to but there's so much choice I'm just going round in circles.
I've not done the good old travel trawl for I very long time. It used to be my go to thing when I was feeling a bit low but it hasn't been for years now.
I think seeing all these posts on Steemit from interesting places all around the world has got my feet itching again. #😁
hahaha I am forever showing Brian pictures on here, saying, "what do you think of this place?"
A place that has particularly caught my eye since being here is Slovenia. It looks so beautiful.
I had Lake Bled on my list but not the rest of the country.
Anyway, the weather here is forecast to be really good again net week so maybe I should be looking for somewhere closer to home if I decide to get away. 😊
@gillianpearce, when the Canadian dollar fell a few years ago, "staycations" became big and people started to do tourist-like things in their own backyards. There's something to say about that, isn't there?
There is @lynncoyle1.
My biggest challenge here I would say is I don't have a car and it's a bit pricey compared to other places in Europe. 😂
I'm keeping my eyes open though in case something comes up that I can get to, at a reasonable price, on public transport.
I'm happy to say that I'm feeling a bit better now. Thank goodness. Thursday was the lowest point but the clouds seem to have lifted a bit now. 😊
Bots calculate roi in $$. It might actually be good for roi i think, need to run some numbers. But overall if u get liquid steem u can just buy sbd and use that for buying votes. For now i am not goong to use bots. If sbd hits 1$ then it will be perfect i think.
If you can do that calculation I think it would be huge because everything would twist around... IE we get paid in liquid steem but divided by steem price... if the steem price is below $1, then we actually get more sp the lower it goes... Hard to get my mind fully around everything, but it would be something cool to see how it turned out. Let me know if you do that calculation, I like your eyeballs on things @mightypanda!
This is what I am getting
I ran 2 hypothetical scenarios, one with SBD price of .8 and other with 1.2. I also assumed steem price is 1 and bots ROI to be 10% (bots calculate ROI in $). Considering this, lower sbd price will certainly be bad for bots. As you can see, ROI will be really low in SBD and you will make lot less steem and sp.
@mightypanda I wasn't clear.. the variable that is important is steem... That will be where you see the variation the most... Try doing the same calculation but keep sbd's at $1 and then vary the value of steem... Then see how much more steem you get ;)
I was running some numbers and it seems that oceanwhale bot has revised its formula to account for liquid steem.
@mightypanda cool... where do you get the formula? Or do they just have a plug in feature? Also I have noticed smartsteem online also has a plug in feature (even though I am not sure it is right)
I have an excel i made, i will upload it in google sheet
@mightypanda awesome... I would love to see that... thanks :)
Here you go: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1klm8zVwsjqOKqXEGH6hWD5I2jvpqchPvivowIQYWB_Y/edit#gid=728616670
Let me know if something is not clear. I have enabled comment on the doc as well.
@mightypanda awesome.... I got the spreadsheet and will start playing around with it... Thanks for doing that, it is a very helpful tool :)
Interesting question, but I skipped exactly that class in technical school, lol
All I know is that I have made some good profits by using the bots this week (unless I miscalculated, which is of course very possible)
hahaha... you play like you don't know, but you are very shrewd @simplymike! I saw you out there today and I was so happy to see you getting involved again! We all missed you and I know I'm not the only one that is happy to see you back! :)
ps... I would upvote you but there is a cool game coming out this weekend from the awesome game site called @newbiegames ... So I'm saving my VP to make sure that Minnow/Newbie Paluzza lives up to its potential ;) ... awesome again to see you in my replies though :D
Thanks, @davemccoy
I had a couple of good days, and it felt good to be back. I hope I can keep it up.
If I’m still in a SteemIt mood this weekend, I can help you take care of the upvotes, so there is more VP to spread around.
@simplymike awesome that you are around again! I hope you do keep it up as you are @simplethebest! 😍
And I will be in touch with you tomorrow and will do the template with an ETA for Sunday or Monday to get the Paluzza going 😎
I should be up tonight and probably tomorrow. We actually have a wedding to go to, but I’m staying home - doctor’s advice. So it will be just me, myself and I here.
Just to make sure I understand correctly (you using your fancy words all the time, lol) : ETA = expected time of arrival??)
yes in my fancy language ETA is expected time of arrival :P
By the way don't ever learn english from me, it was my worst subject all throughout school! ;)
And I'm going for a walk then will be back in an hour to get to work on the post. I'll contact you on discord in a couple of hours and see if you are around ;)
Atm I have the feeling that the bots are more profitable then in the past months. The lower the Steem price decreases the higher the profitability might become.
My feeling also says that you already benefit from this.
What do you think about my 2 cents?
@crypto-econom1st I think that the bots are more profitable than what they have to calculate as long as you get them before the 30 min window kicks in. Keeping part of the curation is a huge factor in what makes you profitable or not. But I also think that many people don't realize how the votes are calculated and sometimes are voting with a big disadvantage to the market price (ie building in a loss)... This keeps the bot owners able to keep their machines on while they offer a good price for others.
As far as the price going down, yes I realize that it will be huge for us when it stops and we get votes cast at the lower prices. Right now is a great time to be votes as the amount of SP you get is the highest per vote than it has been since I arrived in Decemeber!
pretty interesting poll that you got there Dave and one that is very timely.
Thank you there Mav... I have been thinking about it myself and thought why not ask the real experts ;) ... It will be fun in some ways to see what will happen if that did go down like that. The formula's would flip around and the amount of SP accumulation would be huge.
dammit , answered with the wrong account ... well, actually with this one, the system i had is becoming unsustainable so i guess i'll have to switch to writing harry potter fan fiction or taking trips to death valley to take a picture of my starbucks styrofoam cup ... or go on steemchat and perform tricks for the masters hoping to get a cookie
@ubasti lol... I don't know the right account for you, but I know the feeling... If you ever see a friendsofgondor reply then you know that I screwed up again! ;) ... And please don't stop with your very meaningful activities here, especially doing tricks for cookies because they are the best to watch 😭
Hi Dave! It's kinda neat to take my first steemit vote! Good to see ya around tonight. I hope you get a good number of responses for your survey.
Hey Jill! I'm glad you liked it (and it was mine too!) :) ... If I was a better programmer I would've got the poll actually inside the post, but I will need some experienced html writers to do that conversion for me ;)
And good to see you too, but I must admit I miss the colorful smileys! :D
ps... I think the responses are more than I thought, so I'm very pleased!
Oh that's all super positive! 🤹♂️🎶🎵 haha! I did notice clicking back to the post from the survey was a bit annoying! But, it was so easy to use otherwise. Good work Dave!!! 🦋
@yogajill yay the pretty smileys are back ❤️... I now have fast reply and it works like a charm to giving replies. It even comes with a few colorful ones, but nowhere near your amazing stable of smileys! 😎 .. And thanks for the encouragement 😀