Exchange Transfer Report: 9/12/2016 to 9/19/2016

in stats •  2 years ago

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The Top 50 Accounts Transferring to and from Exchanges

Note: the USD amounts shown here are based on the following rates as of when I ran the report, not an average over the past week:

  • STEEM: $0.50
  • SBD: $0.80

Assumptions

Please see the first report for a detailed explanation of my personal assumptions related to what this data could mean. What it does not show is people powering up, powering down, or if they are buying or selling on an exchange. It's just some interesting data dealing with transfers to and from exchange accounts. As @smooth has mentioned in comments on previous reports, more liquid steem held in exchanges means less dilution for those with Steem Power and, hopefully, brings us closer to what will become a market equilibrium between liquid STEEM and vested Steem Power (whatever that percentage may end up being).

Previous Reports

Exchange Transfer Activity from 09/12/2016 to 09/19/2016

First included transfer: 2016-09-12T00:05:48+00:00
Last included transfer: 2016-09-19T23:57:12+00:00


----------------------------- Exchanges ------------------------------

@poloniex STEEM transfer total: 625,554.830
@poloniex SBD transfer total: -22,039.902
@bittrex STEEM transfer total: -89,126.638
@bittrex SBD transfer total: -14,778.533
@blocktrades STEEM transfer total: 134,675.304
@blocktrades SBD transfer total: 10,181.621
@openledger STEEM transfer total: 6,486.391
@openledger SBD transfer total: -52.864
@hitbtc-exchange STEEM transfer total: 3,818.820
@hitbtc-exchange SBD transfer total: -31.572
@hitbtc-payout STEEM transfer total: -33.717
@hitbtc-payout SBD transfer total: 545.264
@changelly STEEM transfer total: -1,786.048
@changelly SBD transfer total: -1,025.336

------------------------- Total Transferred --------------------------

Total STEEM transferred: -679,588.942
Total SBD transferred: 27,201.322
Total USD transferred: ($   318,033.41)

--------------------- Withdrawl to Deposit Ratio ---------------------

Accounts withdrawing: 1024
Average withdrawal amount: ($       408.77)
Median withdrawal amount: ($        12.04)

Accounts depositing: 205
Average deposit amount:  $        98.19
Median deposit amount:  $        45.94

Ratio of withdrawals to deposits: 5.00/1

TOP 50 WITHDRAWALS

AccountNet Transfer Amount
1@steemit2:($ 75,000.00)
2@btcmsia:($ 37,233.41)
3@dantheman:($ 24,470.50)
4@asd91:($ 18,513.08)
5@steemed:($ 11,734.15)
6@smooth-e:($ 10,695.60)
7@val-a:($ 9,500.00)
8@summon:($ 8,189.67)
9@steemfest:($ 8,000.00)
10@berniesanders:($ 7,500.00)
11@tomoaki:($ 6,734.00)
12@joelkatz:($ 6,068.95)
13@cloop1:($ 6,028.02)
14@rainman:($ 5,435.05)
15@ashold882015:($ 4,952.61)
16@pharesim:($ 4,315.11)
17@ashleigh:($ 3,770.99)
18@witness.svk:($ 3,530.50)
19@anastacia:($ 3,312.11)
20@cleta:($ 3,300.31)
21@erihn:($ 3,300.31)
22@silversteem:($ 3,197.20)
23@james-show:($ 3,152.72)
24@complexring:($ 2,974.06)
25@nextgencrypto:($ 2,960.84)
26@wingz:($ 2,540.80)
27@steemdrive:($ 2,400.00)
28@charlieshrem:($ 2,389.04)
29@wayfairer:($ 2,354.80)
30@wang:($ 2,344.50)
31@the-alien:($ 2,319.99)
32@steempty:($ 2,316.36)
33@paws1t1veev:($ 2,276.63)
34@fuzzyvest:($ 2,241.85)
35@curie:($ 2,238.12)
36@papa-pepper:($ 2,000.00)
37@ericvancewalton:($ 1,929.11)
38@sirwinchester:($ 1,864.01)
39@calaber24p:($ 1,845.22)
40@analisa:($ 1,783.62)
41@arsahk:($ 1,706.42)
42@opheliafu:($ 1,686.22)
43@clayop:($ 1,667.18)
44@steve-walschot:($ 1,600.00)
45@jamielefay:($ 1,549.73)
46@drunchpunk:($ 1,533.55)
47@kental:($ 1,518.40)
48@ned:($ 1,500.00)
49@phenom:($ 1,486.54)
50@coldstorage1:($ 1,420.18)

TOP 50 DEPOSITS

AccountNet Transfer Amount
1@smooth-d:$ 14,800.00
2@kush:$ 8,664.47
3@vortac:$ 5,761.72
4@roland-hicks:$ 4,994.99
5@neptun:$ 4,733.02
6@skt:$ 4,511.12
7@creadordelfuturo:$ 3,172.39
8@gct:$ 2,900.95
9@kdj:$ 2,700.90
10@a48:$ 2,579.47
11@onceuponatime:$ 2,496.75
12@steemit-life:$ 2,413.08
13@thecyclist:$ 2,027.39
14@leesunmoo:$ 1,673.94
15@mata:$ 1,653.29
16@smooth-c:$ 1,652.91
17@inchonbitcoin:$ 1,598.11
18@dimimp:$ 1,451.64
19@jimmco:$ 1,239.51
20@asmolokalo:$ 1,220.97
21@geoffrey:$ 1,060.03
22@shaka:$ 1,007.99
23@twinner:$ 999.98
24@ioc:$ 883.42
25@james212:$ 861.31
26@liberosist:$ 830.40
27@hedge-x:$ 798.67
28@fyrstikken:$ 763.47
29@gbert:$ 759.28
30@nxtblg:$ 751.10
31@ssm1810:$ 645.92
32@cyan91:$ 608.67
33@pkattera:$ 587.95
34@freeforever:$ 568.58
35@helikopterben:$ 548.57
36@ramblin-bob:$ 547.52
37@nanzo-scoop:$ 528.89
38@freewallet.org:$ 520.66
39@franciscusb:$ 507.82
40@craig-grant:$ 495.25
41@demotruk:$ 448.77
42@yuli7376:$ 435.75
43@otisbrown:$ 435.00
44@krabgat:$ 422.53
45@telos:$ 420.41
46@jacobt:$ 416.71
47@cass:$ 388.41
48@lhy:$ 358.58
49@dresden:$ 349.99
50@ramta:$ 349.99

Hourly Breakdown by Exchange

Here are the hourly breakdowns for the past week as interactive graphs. The code I use to get this data is on Github if you want to poke at it yourself.

STEEM


click the image for an interactive graph

SBD


click the image for an interactive graph

USD


click the image for an interactive graph

Commentary

  • I added @changelly to the report this week, and I should maybe add @freewallet.org and @freewallet next time. If you know of any other exchanges doing real volume, please let me know, and I'll add them.

  • The ratio of withdraws to deposits continues to climb and is now at 5.00/1. Previous values:

    • 4.41/1
    • 4.01/1
    • 3.85/1
    • 3.85/1
    • 3.09/1
    • 3.42/1
  • At such a low price of Steem, $318,033 is a lot of value heading to exchanges.

  • Last week's STEEM total: -201,472, this week is -679,589 which is a pretty big jump.

  • The last report had a price of steem at $0.65 and this one's at $0.50. That's a 23% drop in one week.

  • We see the total SBD transferred is strongly positive at 27,201 meaning more SBD were taken off exchanges than were put on them.

Question for future reports:
Many have voiced their appreciation for these reports, and I try to get them out on Sunday night or Monday (sorry this one is a bit later than normal), but I'm curious what should be done about the prices I use when running these reports. Should it be the median average as published by the blockchain? What about the USD values? So far I've been using http://steemprices.com/, but it's pretty arbitrary as to when I run the reports (and today's values are kind of a guess as to what things were yesterday). Should I use a price from the Poloniex feed at a consistent time each week? Let me know what you think in the comments. Thanks!

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It probably doesn't account for all of it, but the amount of Steem produced by power downs will increase each week all else being equal. The conversion rate will change, such the the equal share of vests will produce more Steem... So even if user behavior remains exactly the same, the amount of Steem sent to the exchanges from those transactions will continue to increase.

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Yeah, that's a good point. I've been thinking about analyzing that more, specifically the change in the ratio 1M VESTS = 341.358 STEEM. That number isn't doubling or tripling each week, though, so we're still seeing an increase in activity and we haven't hit the equilibrium amount yet. Also, if the price of Steem drops to compensate for the inflation, the USD amount of STEEM would be constant week to week. Since the USD here also lumps in SBD amounts, that gets a little trickier though.

My personal prediction is that STEEM will bottom out at 0.001 in Price and 5-20 million in market cap.

That is unless WREN or other applications/concepts is introduced that will motivate people to buy STEEM. Currently there is only motivation to cash out, not cash in. For instance, promoted is a separate tab and is not useful as advertising medium.

So it will bottom out until it will be ridiculously cheap to purchase more STEEM POWER and people will actually start doing it. But, that is imho quite far away.

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Were you making this same prediction when the price was mooning to $5? What changed since then? The Alexa rating has increased (as @blakemiles84 points out), the feature set of the platform has increased and improved, and the number of users has increased (though adoption and active users has leveled off, or at least become more clear based on how many previous accounts were just bots).

I've powered up STEEM that cost more than this. Sure the conversion to VESTS was better than then it is now, but I still wouldn't say there is only motivation to cash out. As others are converting VESTS to STEEM, some will realize converting STEEM to VESTS will never be cheaper (in STEEM terms) than it is right now. Granted, if the price of STEEM drops lower than the conversion rate change (which it appears to be doing) then selling now and buying more later would result in more VESTS. On the flip side, holding VESTs right now enables the holder to gain even more STEEM via share dilution protection and curation.

Question for future reports:

You for sure should use 'more frequent' pricing. It does not really matter which price you will chose to use, the important point it to use more current price . With 23% drop in price, using the same price for last Sunday's SD deposit as this Friday's Steem withdrawal can easily turn a net neutral 2 transfers from the same account into top 15 deposit/withdrawal in your list.

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That's a good point. How frequent do you think it should be? Since the frequency graphs are daily, maybe an average price for the day on Poloniex? Things can even swing wildly within one day though. Maybe an hourly price would be ideal. I haven't really explored what pricing APIs are out there I can access for free, but if I had a simple way to say "get me the average price in USD terms of SBD and STEEM between 1pm and 2pm on date X" that would be ideal. Do you know of any services that provide that?

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Polo prices are a free through ( I think pretty easy ) api. more info here . You can access them as often as you like. So 1h price are achievable and good enough 99% of the time, with not too much overhead, I think.

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Nice! Hopefully I can carve off some time this weekend to improve my script before the next report.

Great report as always

This is maybe a bit OT, but, let's say I have USD $X that I can invest speculatively in the platform ("never more than you can afford to lose") what would be a near term & long term strategies to consider and do further due diligence / research on? E.g. I see the STEEM DOLLARS are paying 10% APR and have read the recent posts by @abit where he talks of the idea of a bot to move funds in on a monthly basis to maximize compounding.

Thoughts? Links?

·

That's a great question, but I'm not sure I have good investing advice for you. There are so many different approaches, and I've been trying my best to soak it all up over the past couple of months. Another thing to consider is how holding VESTS gives you newly created Steem Power. STEEM itself gets diluted, but Steem Power increases based on the distribution numbers here (1M VESTS will equal more and more Steem Power as time goes on): https://steemd.com/distribution

To me, I think long term value is in Steem Power, assuming the platform survives and thrives. I might be wrong there, but what some call the "interest rate" for having VESTs is quite high right now and will settle down in less than a year. SBD, on the other hand, also give you interest but (hopefully) in a pegged asset, unlike STEEM which has been free falling or Steem Power which is illiquid and requires 104 weeks to fully divest. So yeah, I'm not really sure. Some days I think powering up everything is the way to go. Other days I think I should have held on to more SBD. Still other days, I wish I had powered down and cashed out some Steem for BTC so that I could buy in much cheaper later.

There are a lot of posts about theory and such, but I think I've learned the most from just asking questions in the Steemit chat #price channel.