The Armchair Economics of @randowhale

in randowhale •  last year

Randowhale was born recently. In response to vote buying equity 'whaleshares'.

What is @randowhale

You basically send 2sbd or 2steem to @randowhale with the URL of your post and receive a whale vote from 1 to 50%.

Given the current voting power of randowhale this seems to be a (clear) profitable thing to do over time if your post is above 40 dollars or so.

It's not much of a gamble right now, it's a rational investment decision.

One of the issues with having a whale sized amount of SP is that you need another whale to come after you, forgoing  curation rewards, passing them to the initial whale - there is therefore no incentive for them to do this from a financial perspective.

Randowhale locks in what would be curation rewards and also gives the blogger a chance to profit. It's a win/win.

Who created it? 

Where do I see this going?

Given a market of rational people I would expect the randowhales voting power to decrease to the point where the average vote adds around 2sbd to the payout. A real gamble, if people are rational, then an actuarially fair bet.

This is a much more complex decision however, due to the n squared algorithm. Not all votes are equal, a randowhale vote on a 5k post will add significantly more than a randowhale vote on a 10 dollar post.

Will we reach a steady state?

I see a few things potentially happening.

Randowhale will have a 'day of rest' every now and then... to recuperate voting power OR there will be a dynamic shift in voting power based on the current value of the post. As higher valued posts will have a significantly larger chance of making a profitable bet.

Only posts that have less than x in rewards will be able to participate. This would incentivize early randowhale voting, increasing the curation rewards of randowhale and stop those with already high payouts from participating.

The price or voting percentage will adjust to maximize profitability. Keeping a relatively high voting power and a high enough price for people to rationally act

Evolving further with a shift to a more linear rewards curve...

From Tuesday this week there will be a hardfork that makes rewards more linear. There will be less of a pile on effect and posts going exponentially higher in payout value. How will this affect randowhale?

I personally think it will shift more into a pure gambling service and eventually tend to a steady state where only high valued posts will be profitable. It may actually turn into a promotion tool too as the rational demand may outstrip the voting power supply. To put it simply, a new user that wants to get some exposure with a whale vote may vote a very low value post so they are noticed and can snowball a following on steemit.

Implications

It's exciting to see these new services developed that provide demand for steem dollars. I hope to see many more in the future. At the moment these simple but innovative initiatives are what will drive the network effect of Steemit forward. An eBay version of Steemit, or a place where people can trade services like fivver. Maybe somewhere a services economy can develop. 

All these ideas are fun and would build up the network effect however they wouldn't reduce the liability of the rewards pool and the investments that Steemit is bootstrapping.

What I'd like to see is randowhale and other services for the Steem economy tie in with revenue generation. Something as simple as sending 1% of funds generated to the @null account to be burnt. This way we have a win/win/win situation, better rewards for bloggers, better curation for randowhale and a reduction in the supply of SBDs, increasing the value of Steem indirectly.

Once we get to this point, of burning based on demand, we start to see a more sustainable, revenue based model.

That's when Steemit gets a step closer to World Domination.

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Let me understand this, upvoting is the single activity one can perform to curate content. Those with more SP have a larger affect on curation. Curation is meant to surface better content and reward those who found it with curation rewards.

So, randowhale completely breaks the intent and purpose of curation. Cool. I'll just go develop a curator marketplace where everyone can just buy votes from their favorite whale for the best bid. That'll make steemit a better place.

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Looking at it from one angle I agree with you. However when it comes to getting exposure for new users trying to get a foothold, something like randowhale could have much more beneficial long term benefits.

Also, I mean this is a free market. It's something that's developing over time - what I'd really like to see is the burning of revenue generated from services as I wrote in the conclusion.

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It feels like a hack of the upvote and curation system to do something it's not intended to do. If someone wants exposure and is willing to part ways with some steem for it, that's what the Promoted page is for.

better curation for randowhale

Except @randowhale is not doing any actual curating. It's an automated bot that gives you a possibly valuable upvote after you pay for it. That's not what I understand the upvote action to be for.

Burning revenue would definitely be a good thing, but let's not build things that circumvent the original purpose of a feature. It muddys the water

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You say that's what the promoted page is for, but that page is a waste of investment. Who goes to that page? And it costs so much to be at the top that you have to have a high ticket offer to even breakeven from the extra maybe 50 people who see that post. Maybe if the promoted posts were mixed in with the regular posts like facebook newsfeed ads then more people would use them.

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This comment has received a 0.13 % upvote from @booster thanks to: @brendanwenzel.

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The thing is though, if it can be done, It will be done.

It's mostly profitable now but as I touched on, it will become a gambling vote. Which has value, just another service in a developing economy.

Nice sharing! And I think you point out the main point is aboutr gambling. Yes, how much can you get back from the 2SBD? I first heard randowhale is a the very first few days when I join steemit. And I don't have a choice to choose try or not. As I don't even have 2 SBD at that moment and I'm not too curious to have a try now, as yes, it more on gambling than a investment.

Sometimes the randowhale has a bug where it doesn't upvote the content i give it..
Ive lost 2 or 4 sbd now but I guess the bot has its hard times too.. Overall good initiative and verry helping.
Cheers and much love
-Goldie

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if that ever happens, just drop him a message. rando's always made people whole if a glitch caused him to miss a vote!

I think you are correct for a smaller valued post it doesn't help.

I've tested it out and I did earned but it didn't cover the 2SDB :( @randowhale 2SBD Investment Result

I was EXTREMELY disappointed when I hit "max" instead of typing 2SBD and lost 75SBD. I was enjoying using @randwhale...but now have a sour taste. @blocktrades refunded money incorrectly sent and I think it is only fair.

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@onetree I will be sending you back your SBD. I apologize for not seeing this before now and not noticing the transaction.

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I am very grateful and humbled by your kindness. You are a good person and I like using your (again!( kind service you have provided. I will be using some of those funds to "randowhale" (you are now a verb!) some family and friends.🌺

I posted about this a bit over a week ago, along with a bunch of examples. It's really not worth doing it for posts with very little payouts, which ironically helps it become more "self-regulating".

Link: The "SECRET" to properly summoning randowhale and Whaleshares to MAXIMIZE your ROI!

If you write a post that gets some "viral" attention on STEEMIT (as you wrote, lots of votes and $40+ payouts), though I'd say even that may be borderline on the low side, but at least still likely profitable, those are the posts worth considering for a randowhale or Whaleshares vote.

For example, @razvanelulmarin's post "The Trading Dojo #1" featuring you would be perfect, and even this post looks like it may catch enough traction to be worthwhile as well!

Of course, some of this is likely to change over the next few days with HF19 on Tuesday, so at least a "slight" reevaluation will likely be in order.

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Brilliant post, I think you covered your statements really well with the examples. With more and more people joining it's going to get tougher for people to get their foot in the door, I think something like randowhale combined with genuine comments to others in your field of posting could give a benefit above and beyond just the financial bet.

For instance a post with just a few dollars payout is probably significantly more exposed than one with a few cents.

With the HF coming, I think everything will change and it will be closer to an actuarially fair bet quantitatively. However when considering the qualitative affects such as more exposure - the actual result may be far more difficult to predict.

Thanks for your comment :)

Also, great to bump into another trader :D

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Also, great to bump into another trader :D

figured you'd catch that, so didn't bother mentioning it! must be a "trader thing"! lol

Regarding the exposure bit, while there's a slight chance for more visibility, I really haven't found much evidence to support that assertion. In fact, if you check out a few of @vinnu's recent posts, he tried rando on some very low payout posts (< 5 bucks), and it really didn't have much of an effect at all. Of course, one only got a 1% randowhale payout, but on a $100+ post, it may have still turned out okay.

Perhaps a better way of looking at it from a trader's perspective, momentum begets momentum, and once you "catch a bid", the whale vote bumps it up even more, and any additional momentum might really send it parabolic! Well, something like that, at least! lol

As for gaining traction, I still find (as you also said) genuine comments and positive interaction with others on STEEMIT may be a newbie's most powerful tool, achievable by anyone willing to put in the time and effort.

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You're post was awesome :)

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Thank you @stackin, glad you found our posts helpful! :)

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Let's see if HF19 changes it :)

This post received a 14% upvote from @randowhale thanks to @wingz! For more information, click here!

Followed/upvoted/agreed! Love everything about this post. Nice work. Well said! 👨🏻‍🏫

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Thanks!

Congratulations @wingz!
Your post was mentioned in my hit parade in the following category:

  • Pending payout - Ranked 8 with $ 788,71

I hope the person with that burning $100 put it out quickly. Still can be traded in at the bank if it is over 50% intact!

I've used randowhale a few times and it helps a lot but i hope the donation price will go down coz its not easy to pay that amount for new members...

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I'm sure after the HF on Tuesday there will be a few changes :)

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Please brother get me a good news soon... :D

I think that HF19 will render randowhale's service unatractive, or he will have to raise the price. I personally tried out the system and I lost I only got back half of the 2 SBD I spent, of course I made the mistake of using a post that had hardly any votes on it, so I do believe randowhales service works at the moment but you have to know when and on what to use it.

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I agree, certainly only makes financial sense, given a certain pending payout.
After the hardfork, the service will probably be less attractive and more of a gamble, although I wouldn't put it past randowhale to come up with some innovations.

I haven't tried rando yet so I am not sure how effective it can be...interesting point you are making here...upvoted and followed.

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One of the other benefits of the randowhale for a minnow is exposure. If you're lucky enough to get a higher vote then your post will be seen by more people and have the snowball effect of getting more followers and establishing yourself on the platform.

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thank you for the tip, I really appreciate it

thank you

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Interesting post, I love it, good luck.

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Send 2sbd to randowhale with the URL of your post in the memo.

So it is good for those that already get more than $0.20 payouts? Sounds nice. Not really helping when you average at $0.20. So it probably won't pay itself back, unless lucky?

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Pretty much, a riskier gamble the lower your post is in pending payout.

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Wow, these are a lot of great ideas! I first learned about randowhale yesterday and it is an interesting concept to say the least. I know everyone is eager to see what the hardfork brings, but I think it'll be a good thing since it'll help regulate the STEEM value. I'm all for increasing the value of STEEM. To the moon!

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After the hardfork the newer users, like yourself will have more of a chance to get a foothold. I see it as a benefit for adoption and eventual long term price.

Nice Chair! Maybe I'll send some SBD to the whale once I earn some.

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hehe

Hmm, Quite an analysis of how the Randowhale vote will affect us in future. I am a minnow, only 4 days old here and still trying to grasp all concepts. Your article provides an insight on the metrics of randowhale voting benefits.
Upvoted and followed you.

Since you understand so much about Steemit, I request you to take a look at one of my blogs about Personality traits of Steemians https://steemit.com/steemit/@vm2904/personality-traits-of-a-steemian and help me spread the message. I am looking to reach a wider audience and grow enough to start giving back. Thanks for your support

Regards,
A minnow
minnow.jpgsteemit.png

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Thanks, I left you a comment.

Probably one of the most genuine post promos I've come across :)

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Thanks - Here are my thoughts on the comment you left:
Oh - when you make a reference to George Orwell's Animal Farm, is it to the famous situation of 'All animals are equal but some are more equal than others'?
When monetisation is involved, is that situation not a given to some extent in every hierarchy or society?
Therefore, am I wrong in trying to focus on positives (even at surface level) so that I can continue towards the goal of growing enough to be able to give back?
Also - when we compare Steemit to all other social media - this group seems to have a lot less trolling, abuse and false behaviour. Therefore, though not perfect, it is worth our time in my personal opinion.

I already respect your opinion since you have demonstrated your deeper understanding of the ecosystem here. Therefore, what I have written above is sort of trying to reason aloud to get guidance from you rather than trying to argue with you.

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There are immediate disincentives to trolling, it's not financially rewarded and people will be most likely downvoted until you can no longer see their posts. That's why there are so few trolls.

As for the allocation of the reward pool, of course groups will form and certain users will milk those rewards daily, or multiple times daily. If people can band into groups this will always be an issue.

It's certainly worth it to invest your time here, there are lots of layers though. Overall it's incredibly positive, with probably one of the best 'family like' groups on the internet I've ever come across. Maybe I'm a little too analytical but I think we always need to remain vigilant, certainly people have tried to take advantage of the generosity of people on this platform in the past.

I have tried randowhale a few times. Seems like I'm getting less back from it than the 2 SBD it costs. What am I missing? Is there a break even point in terms of account value, rating, etc?

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The higher you posts pending payout the more likely you are to be profitable.

You know when all the little ad banners pop up at the bottom of the screen while watching youtube (pre adblock)? After a while you dont see or even notice them, it's like they're invisible.
The constant schemes and crap posts I see every third or fourth item on a feed is the same, I don't read them or look at them to learn what the new scheme is available to get (or buy) big upvotes or whale-notice.
I'm new, but as more and more members reach high ranks, at what point is it unsustainable? is one whale post worth 4 or 5 thousand bucks?
sorry but ask a politician if he's going to vote for term limits, why would those benefiting agree to change their system?

Technology is future and AI is only a tip of the iceberg. I foresee more of this Tech in the future of the cryptosphere. Cheers to the developers of steem and other Crypto currencies.

I just love the photo ;-)

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hehe, me too, I want to sit in that chair :P