Betting Wisdom | #7 Do Not Bet Against Big Moves
DO NOT BET AGAINST BIG MOVES ...
UNLESS THEY ARE BASED ON TEAM NEWS.
The odds on the asian betting market move all the time directly based on the amount of money that comes in. Setting your own odds and betting on them whenever the bookmakers odds reach a point where they offer enough value can be very tricky. It would mean that you have to oppose every big move where no real team news is involved. The reason this rarely is a smart thing to do is because the move itself should be seen as a major factor even though it has nothing to do with the match itself.
Knowing your own limitations and not getting caught up in your ego is key in order to win money in the long run. Whenever someone is moving the odds a lot without a direct reason, that move instantly gets intellectual authority over me. Since the ones that are causing the move have far bigger stakes, it means that they are more likely to be better handicappers and have some angles I'm not aware of which they base their bet on. For this reason I never bet against moves I don't understand or that do not make any sense no matter how much my emotions would love to go all in because a bet feels like huge value. (This only counts for the bigger markets with higher limits, anyone can make the odds move significantly if maximum limits are only 500€)
Antwerp vs Club Brugge last weekend was an excellent example. The line opened -0.75 @ 1.92 on Club Brugge which was close to how I saw this match myself. The line moved quarter ball to -0.5 @ 1.92+ without there being any specific team news. Based on my own estimations it would always have been a big bet, but the move without reason itself is a 'hidden variable' which makes it impossible for me to ever take it no matter how much is goes up.
Opposing these type of moves literally means you go against sharp whale money who are likely to be winning players and have good reasons for moving the lines. I made this mistake of letting my ego in charge many times these last 15 years and have seen over and over again that it's a -EV spot.
If there is a move directly based on team news like injuries or line-ups though, I'm the first in line to oppose them as they are often a big overreaction that creates value on the other side.
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Betting Wisdom | #6 Do Not Bet Combos | Accumulators | Parlays
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Betting Wisdom | #1 You Don't Have To Bet
Reading your blogs makes me want to be more professional in my capping. I don't have the discipline for it yet and am firmly in the recreational -EV capper category for now.
Thanks !
Having a blog and posting everything in a very transparant way with results no matter if they are good or bad really helps as it pushes yourself. It can be quite brutal mentally when things go down though.
I think, an important factor to consider too is:
In my experience these bigger moves not always necessarily mean that the ones who are betting bigger money on a game than me also win in the long run. Looking back on my own betting career, I did quite well in opposing a lot of bigger moves (fixed games excluded), and here, especially in two small leagues, in the country where I live. This, because it is a lot easier here to gain quick and reliable information from trustworthy sources.
So while from a broader perspective I totally agree with you, I still think this should not be generalized for all markets.
You are right, I took that for granted when writing. Volume is a big factor. Smaller markets take very little for the odds to move a lot and don't apply for this idea. Will add this in there later on.
+1 for sharing this type of knowledge. Understanding our cognitive limitations and our mental biases is key to pretty much anything in life, especially to betting.
Will make sure to check out your previous articles and absorb some knowledge there as well, steem on my friend 🔥
Otherwise, if you're into travelling, vlogs, fitness, self-development etc feel free to check out my channel, in any case keep up the good work and I'll see you around! :)
Great post as usual @costanza!
I just wanted to add that I think timing of the move is also an important factor. Early moves several days before a match are more likely to be the whales you refer to. If you're willing to tie your money up several days in advance it must be for good reason right?
Late on though, particularly in huge volume markets like EPL match odds, I believe these moves can be as a result of the general betting crowd consensus. The exception is a very sharp and sudden move, which is most likely insiders knowing big team news in advance of the public.
This is a very interesting topic, and I'd love to read a study done on the relative success rate of early vs late moves :).
Jong Ajax -1. Is that a good bet? leagulane had it as a best bet today.
I have no clue about Jong Ajax -1. It's not a league I follow or bet in any way.
Ended up being a push, 3-2. Should have played the over as Ajax is a top scoring team at 2.95 goals per game.
Knowing your own limitations and not getting caught up in your ego is key in order to win money in the long run. Whenever someone is moving the odds a lot without a direct reason, that move instantly gets intellectual authority over me. Since the ones that are causing the move have far bigger stakes, it means that they are more likely to be better handicappers and have some angles I'm not aware of which they base their bet on. For this reason I never bet against moves I don't understand or that do not make any sense no matter how much my emotions would love to go all in because a bet feels like huge value
Your the best @costanza