Great post as usual @costanza!

I just wanted to add that I think timing of the move is also an important factor. Early moves several days before a match are more likely to be the whales you refer to. If you're willing to tie your money up several days in advance it must be for good reason right?

Late on though, particularly in huge volume markets like EPL match odds, I believe these moves can be as a result of the general betting crowd consensus. The exception is a very sharp and sudden move, which is most likely insiders knowing big team news in advance of the public.

This is a very interesting topic, and I'd love to read a study done on the relative success rate of early vs late moves :).