I think, an important factor to consider too is:

• The market itself and its participants (especially high rollers).

In my experience these bigger moves not always necessarily mean that the ones who are betting bigger money on a game than me also win in the long run. Looking back on my own betting career, I did quite well in opposing a lot of bigger moves (fixed games excluded), and here, especially in two small leagues, in the country where I live. This, because it is a lot easier here to gain quick and reliable information from trustworthy sources.

So while from a broader perspective I totally agree with you, I still think this should not be generalized for all markets.