Fact checker 3: does bid bot @jerrybanfield provide the highest APR? NO!
This is the third edition of fact checker. In this serie I try to check if statements done by fellow Steemonians are true or false?
A few days ago @gmichelbkk did a Case Study: Which Top Upvoting Bots to Delegate to for the Highest Daily Payout?
His final conclusion is that @jerrybanfield clearly wins this with 35% APR.
Let me first state that I really enjoyed to read his post about this subject https://steemit.com/steemit/@gmichelbkk/case-study-which-top-upvoting-bots-to-delegate-to-for-the-highest-daily-payout
And secondly I think @gmichelbkk is a great Steemonian. Cause in the past I asked him lots of questions, also about this post and he is always willing to help. So perhaps my post is another invite for a last reaction from his side? As I could not yet solve everything I came up during my investigation.
The reason for checking this fact is that @gmichelbkk is a big fan of @jerrybanfield. If you then do some research and the outcome is that Jerrybanfield is the most profitable bot, then it directly crosses my mind that there could be a conflict of interest. Together with that the 35% APR is far above the average of 25%. And last but not least his post received very large bot upvotes which he didn't pay for with his own account (who did pay then for these upvotes?)
Fact 1: @jerrybanfield provides 35% APR for SP delegation? = FALSE
Fully identical to the setup of @gmichelbkk I calculated the APR for Steemonians that delegated to @jerrybanfield. Only where @gmichelbkk made the calculation for 1 delegator. I did it for 3 delegators. For a perfect check up this calculation sample should of course be bigger and be done at several points in time.
The outcome of the 3 Steemonians I checked was 24% & 24% & 24%.
Then I checked the numbers from his wallet. Those all reconcile with the numbers @gmichelbkk used for his calculation. So this is correct. I also checked two weeks in front and one week after his calculation. Those 3 weeks he received significant lower Steem+SBD. So that really leaves me clueless on why he succeeded one time in getting 35% APR?
I can only guess. Perhaps @jerrybanfield have his delegators this high rewards for just over 1 week? Hoping to attract some new delegators. Or he rewarded his very loyal friend?
It could all be possible for someone that charges $50 for a free service (registering a new account). Even if there would be no bad intentions, he called this over himself by his historical actions.....
While doing my investigation I saw the a comment containing this data:
Thanks @cardboard for sharing this!
What more prove do I need to provide?
Fact 2: @jerrybanfield provides the highest return for SP delegation? = FALSE
Data from the first fact easily proves that @jerrybanfield is somewhere between spots 6 to 10. And based on the data @cardboard showed it would be about the worst pick.
Fact 3 other mysterious things that seem to point a conflict of interest
3a Why did @jerrybanfieldroi pay 173 SBD + 300 Steem to bid bots?
😳😳😳 that's really my first reaction. WTF happened here? What do I need to do to get this too?
3b Why did @jerrybanfieldroi transfer 91 Steem + 116 SBD to @gmichelbkk? And another 20 Steem from @jerrybanfield?
Again I can't come up with any legitimate explanation myself. And again I would love to know how I can earn this myself?
I also noticed that he received about the same amounts 2 months ago.
3c: I asked @gmichelbkk who bought these upvotes for him? His answer was:
Right, no answer. This doesn't take away my awkward feeling. To me it seems he needs to explain this. Giving no answer at all suggests that it is what we think it is. So I hope he will answer those questions now?
Also I would be happy if someone else can explain how Jerry's things work?
(@ats-david @kaylinart @fbslo @therealwolf @phoneinf @whatsup @yabapmatt @nealmcspadden @jlordc @monajam @hiroyamagishi @atishdarpel @flymehigh @slimanepro @starupvote @Richard's @muzzle @Steemero @amnasahar @mawit07 @cdemon @jo3potato @mysearchisover @sunlit7 @Geoffrey @emrebeyler @bloom @e2mmzw02giw2wvm @anadolu Btw I also tagged a few people for who I believe it might be good to see this side of the story.
Most Likely some of the more experienced Steemonians know how it works?
Or let me know if you have any additional questions?
I think http://isteemd.com/ is pretty accurate.
I think I pay the highest ROI on the Steem blockchain.
https://www.minnowbooster.net/market?direction=asc&sort=effective_price
I doubt he knows how it all works himself
Please upvote: https://steemit.com/free/@bible.com/4qcr2i
Assuming that the data is not fabricated, I think the numbers presented by @gmichelbkk is not at all impossible.
I have never used Jerry's bid bot before but checking Steembottracker, it's one of the few bid-bots left who still don't have a limit on their max-roi. This alone attracts many people who are mainly using bots just for profit
With the current disappointing price of Steem/SBD the past few weeks, we are now being paid in both. This makes some people switch to Jerry's bot to still make a profit due to it having no max-limit on roi comparing to others who have set theirs at +10%.
Not to mention Jerry's bot doesn't have a blacklist/whitelist system. No matter how spammy/plagiarized the post is as long as people pay, his bot upvotes it which again attracts more people to use his bot compared to others who are more stricter. (Correct me if I'm wrong with this)
More people who use his bot = more money towards delegators
Probably when the data was taken, a lot more people than usual are using Jerry's bot causing it to be the most profitable bot towards delegators that week.
You are right about the fact that those numbers are not impossible. In fact I saw it with my own eyes. But I also saw that his was the only week that @jerrybanfield provided such a high APR. So it's not fair to present it as the most profitable bot for delegators. While my investigation and a few others show it is almost the less profitable.
Your arguments also make sense. Besides the one about the profit seekers. Cause if they all use the same bot, most likely that bot won't be profitable anymore. So they stop using it. That could be an explanation for that one week.the
I don't have much knowledge of this information. I use the small bots to boost my posts and do not delegate. But here is one point.
If a bot does not have a lower limit for payout, and allows votes between 0-20 minutes - people will time things and post at a good time to get big votes in the first 15 minutes. This changes the curation % and so the author can get 90% of the reward and the curators will only get 10%. This type of voter does not care about payout percentages - only the $$$ value of the upvote counts. The more they get in the value of upvotes in the first 15 minutes, the less the curators get at payout.
This is due to steemit's way of doing math somehow. On some of those bots, 2-3 people at a time will jump in big at the last minute and the payout on the bot will be really, really low. Some of these people will bid 80% of the bot value as a regular habit. So the bot earns better money for the delegators.
Jerry's bot used to take bids in 0 minutes and did not have a lower limit. I keep him on my https://steembottracker.com/ list even though I never use his bot. Without the lower limit, his bot used to crash hard all the time. I'm talking negative 50% or more.
I came in with Jerry last year and I know him. He helped me with upvotes before he started his bots. So I reached out a few weeks ago and told him how this situation was going down and he put a lower crash limit of 10%. So his bot will never crash that hard again and the payouts to delegators will be less. Any numbers before two weeks ago no longer apply to his bot. The people with this strategy will also not be bidding on his bot for the most part. If they do, it will be a smaller, more logical bid.
In my case, I try to bid pennies and get 70% or more payout. I do not use the bots at all in the first day except for one that only votes in the first 24 hours. I have a plan and work it and get maybe $2-$5 extra on most posts. I'm doing it for the sp, the sbd, and to reward my regular voters better.
As I said, I had Jerry on my list, because I could tell when the bad guys are bidding as there are also some of the smaller bots they use for this too. I don't want to be there with them and their negative return if I can help it. But Jerry's bot no longer serves that purpose for me with the change he made.
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