On a special request: Eleven more of @haejings coin analysis - Is he starting to move the market?
A few days ago I analyzed 20 random predictions made by @haejin in November 2017 and rated them by the degree to which they turned out to be correct. The scale went from zero (=dead wrong) to three (=spot on).
In the comments user @camand asked me if I could look at another 20 of his analysis and he gave me ten random coins ranked by their current market cap and I was supposed to add another 10.
Unfortunately, I could not find a prediction by @haejin for the following coins: HEAT (127), Clams (128), Sequence (142), Bitmark (163), Unobtanium (166), KuCoin Shares (45), Mooncoin (75), Asch (76), Burst (82).
That's why I cut it short and only analyzed the other eleven on the list. In cases where there were several analysis for the same coin I took the one with the most relevant price prediction for the beginning of the year 2018. All considered predictions are between two weeks and half a year old.
The rating rules are the same as in the last post.
Here are the results: Not a single flop! (wow)
Only three of the predictins were rated with a two.
All remaining eight predictions were rated with a three.
Not a single one was off the target or completely wrong.
The average rating is a 2.73 which is by far better than the 1.7 from the previous overview of @haejin's work. All 31 predictions have an average of 2.06 out of a possible 3.
This is really, really good, but there seems to be a downside to be emerging.
The analytic power of @haejin could start having an impact on the market
On December 20th, he made an analysis about Bitshares for which he predicts a bright future. So far, he made several predictions about it like for example this one a few days before, in which he gives out a long term price of several hundred Dollar for a coin that is right now still below 1 US-$.
What was so special about the prediction from December 20th is the very specific short term price target that he pinned to 0.52 US-$ within a few days or weeks.
The strange thing is that on the same day the price for Bitshares shot up from around 0.40 US-$ to 0.65 US-$ as you can see in the chart:
Is @haejin moving the market?
The reason why I don't brush this off as @haejin simply being really, really good at his job is the number of views he had on this post. It got total of 13.853 clicks. The chart shows the 24h volume traded at a bit less than 122 Million Dollar, but since the price adaption went vertical it was only maybe one hour from that 24 hour volume.
Since I don't have the specific numbers, I would say it was maybe 20 Million Dollar that have changed the owner in the moment the price shot up. Per view this comes down to an average of about 1,500 US-$, a number not too unrealistic.
The only rational conclusion is that at least impart the price must have been influenced by @haejin, which I find both fascinating and concerning.
He sure does have a lot of people following him and speaking very highly of his market analysis. I think it is early to tell, with good analysis and full time commitment it is possible to get quite good at crypto trading. It is a very special skill however - most of late 2017 throw money at any coin can get rich. Will it carry on in 2018? happy new year blessing to everyone
True, a big massacre will come at one point and we'll see how good he really is. But I think his early predictions here which are 5+ months old are showing that he is good. One or two of the eleven examples are about that old and he hit them on the nail. Back then the market was for the most coins still very flat.
What i miss in his analyses is a lack of argumentation from different angles and using different tools. He use mainly Elliott wave theory but There are also other excellent tools out there. I use mostly: moving averages, Ichimoku cloud, MACD, RSI and awesome oscillator in combination with harmonic patterns.
I try to find to which degree this tools are agree about future price movements and this determine my prediction.
Here are some examples: Bitcoin: #20, #21, #22, #23, Bitshares: #5, Steem: #1.
Well, I guess every cook has his secret recipe. I don't know what exactly he considers for his picks, but since the positions of the 1-5 waves impart are relatively arbitrary, I would say other indicators (esp. the moving average & MACd) must be part of what he's looking at.
What made me curious about him was that in two cases, I came to the same price prediction as he did, but I used a totally different method.
Thanks for your links. I will take a look at them. Maybe, you're going to be the next guru in my feed;-)
This is a excellent proposal! I do comparisons of my predictions with actual outcomes by my self already, but my judgement can be biased. This is an excellent chance to somebody else do comparisons independently. Your evaluation can help me a lot to become better
good post