Exponential Growth for Cryptocurrencies over? 🚀 What is in the Pipeline for 2018?
Hello Steemit friends,
currently the market seems drifting sideways for weeks now and many ask why we see no clear upward trend? I'll try to answer that with 3 points in that article and what i think will happen during 2018.
Current situation
We had a massive correction which culminated in a great buying opportunity in my point of view on February 6th, you can see below in the chart. The market cap decreased to about $100 billion with a price under $6,000.
Bitcoin is still the leader in terms of market cap and gatekeeping to the fiat world. That simply means if someone want transform some fiat money he often uses Bitcoin in the first place and second to exchange in another cryptocurrency. The hundreds of trading pairs at coinmarketcap.com for Bitcoin are the proof for that.
The chart is not so bad as someone may feel currently. You can see how Bitcoin is slowly creeping up from the low and if we express in numbers it's about +50% up! I think that's a good sign. But what makes it so painful? The fact of the matter is we had a inflated price over $20,000 a few weeks before and we are still compare that price tag with the current price, which looks like a -55% decrease in value and dampened massively the euphoria for the market now.
But that's not the view i have, because for me any market works like a rubberband where the two ends are fixed at average values at different times especially the cryptocurrency market with HUGE VOLATILITY.. i couldn't emphasize more on that.
We'd pulled the rubberband so hard that the tension was too strong to sustain and after releasing it swung back to a mean value and with it the emotions. I think of that situation like in the physical world. The rubberband does not just swing back to the straight line, no it swings down further and comes back.. like losses are much more painful than the joy of gains for us. Our subjective valulation tells us sometimes otherwise.. we're behaving like rubberbands.. irrational and that's why there are always inefficient markets.. and crypto markets are a land of magicians if you think of the hundreds and thousands of ICO's of the past, running and upcoming which stimulate our enthusiasm.. with a handful of serious projects which will shape the future for the good and which are maybe not are so colorful presented like the whitepaper ICO's witout a MVP (minimal viable product).
But put our emotions aside and look at the underlying technology, the fundamentals.. has the value increased or decreased? The answer is absolutely clear!
We are stepping forward.. NOT back!
1. Scalability Solutions
Main concerns for current technology state are
- slow transactions
- high fees
which effect the usuability of blockchains for certain applications massively. A everyday life example is the retail sector online and offline. Merchants need systems which work instant and cheap. But popular blockchains like Ethereum and Bitcoin get more and more congested (which is of course also a good sign s. below) and are not usuable for buying low value goods like a lemonade currently because the transaction fees would often exceed the the price of the good. But let's look what's on the brink to change the current situation
Bitcoin - Lightning Network
Currently it is tested worldwide on testnet and also on mainnet. Once released for mass usage by Blockstream and his partners it will change the perception of Bitcoin completely. The two main concerns would be history. To get a sense you can test transactions at https://htlc.me/.
But there are other concerns by well know people from the scene like Andreas Antonopoulos who predicts that Coinbase and others who need KYC/AML will never use Lightning Network because the underlying technology could not provide that. Currently there a controverse discussions about possible solutions like in a post by @zoidsoft. For me that point is unclear and could restrict the wonderful possibilities of Lightning Network but on the other hand i think there will be solutions in the future..
Etherum - Plasma, Raiden
There are clear signs that also Ethereum will succeed in scaling up their blockchain solution as @sirwinchester explained in his great post.
@ivanli explained from the programmers perspective another solution called Raiden
Ethereum Raiden Network - Programmer explains - video by Ivan on Tech
Neo - Trinity, High Performance Blockchain
The so called chinese Ethereum works also on solutions for scaling, especially Trinity. Neo itself fights currently with simple issues with their Neon wallet like stability and to get their nep-5 tokens (like ERC20 in Ethereum) visible. I'd tried with TNC and it was at least visible in the Neo explorer.
side note:
The fantasy is created by the names.. Neo.. Trinity.. you remember the movie Matrix? Nobody has a cooler name than that.. oh wait there is Tron, that beats everything out of the ball park! It's always important to look behind.. if you're familiar with Peter Lynch stock picking methods than you know he had a track record in picking the worst named companies on which he made a ton of money.. simply because the public perception of the name was so bad that almost nobody looked at the real value.. the product, market opportunities, earnings, cash.. just at the moment when some press article revealed that true value.. so i'm very careful with cool names and ridiculous high market caps.
Conclusion scaling blockchains
We see currently first real world usage like paying for a phone bill. The mainnet is growing fast like the internet in the beginning i visualized in my post about
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I think we see first mass adoption in 2018 beside security and transparency issues which are especially a concern for regulators. But it looks overall positive!
2. Regulation efforts accelerating
First, cryptocurrencies and blockchain are now a major topic for government, banks and regulators. The proof is in the news like G20 agenda, the SEC proposal, central bank statements with strong words by Carstens
That's a double-edged sword.. on one hand it's now in the public and spreads like a virus, regulators go after ICO scammers, right regulation could be a catalyst to convince regular people to use cryptocurrencies.. on the other hand the fear of central banks which produce massive FUD with wrong statements about cryptocurrencies because it could massively decrease their influence and power in the financial system.
But overall it's a progress.. from ridiculed to concerned about.. regulators are now in the race and could also help to make it more legit and destroy the simple pictures of criminals and nerds who only using cryptocurrencies.. which is completely distorted and misleading if someone tells that the public in my opinion which i expressed in the following article.
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Conclusion on regulation
It will help to establish a legitimate picture of blockchain and cryptocurrencies but we'll see also a war of money with central banks who want retain total power over money.
3. Cryptocurrency Exchanges shortly before bursting!
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It's a fact that cryptocurrency exchanges had a massive run of new customers and stopped new registrations in peak periods, you can read for example in @tighilt post. But regulators go after major exchanges especially in asian markets. The enforce KYC/AML and ban foreigners from trading.. but the past showed how it works in a decentralized internet of value..
- exchanges changed their location and name.. if that will not work..
- decentralized exchanges will be used
Many argue that decentralized exchanges (DEX) are the future. We already see IDEX, TIDEX, Etherdelta,.. and if there are millions of customers worldwide who want use cryptocurrencies it's just a matter of time when they find a exchange.. centralized or decentralized.. which means new money is constantly streaming into the crypto space.
Conclusion on exchanges
The interest is very high and will further increase in the public in 2018. Catalysts are also bridgebuilder companies like TenX, Pundi X, Coinbase or Bread, upcoming decentralized exchanges and also the government with regulation efforts.
What all that means now for the market capitalization and the value of the crypto market?
I think we'll see already in 2018 an clear upward trend with all the rubberband effects too but long term it is destined to rise. I'll make no price predictions. There are many out for Bitcoin, reaching from $20,000 - 115,000 and also $0 which lacks common sense in my point of view (think of a Bitcoin medal you can buy 20 years from now, even then the value of Bitcoin is not zero!). That is so subjective and like assuming to have a crystal ball.. what is MUCH MORE IMPORTANT is the REAL VALUE?
In my point of view it is valuable if it can improve our life and i don't think of value appreciation of some tokens in the first step.. i think of eleminating fraud, centralized black boxes, business models based on exploiting the poorest of the poor in the world to build the foundation to making money self-governed, give freedom to the individuum and of course make payments, handling of money more convenient.. in the light of that we should carefully watch developments of projects and the people behind.. one of them i watch is Ripple with it's totally centralized structure backed by exsisting banks.. it piggypacks on Bitcoin advantages with much faster and more convenient transactions.. but looks more like a trojan horse and skyrocketed from nothing into the Top3 and made ONE MAN the richest of the rich.. seriously history repeats.. that should never be the goal!
Do you think it is worth to invest in Ripple to support a development of even more control and arbitrary behaviour (issue money, block accounts at will) by central authorities or do you think it would be much better to choose a much more decentralized network, self-governed for value transfer and storage like Bitcoin or the the distributed witness structure of Steemit backed by enthused people? Well we see in every project centralized and decentralized structures, the question for me is how much centralization can be accepted as necessary and good?
What is your feeling about the current market situation?
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I love your detailed explanation of this market ,i hope you didn't make an error by pointing out btc will reach $1.15m from 20 k but all the same i believe we can get there as the market continues to grow rapidly , things are quite shaky right now but i beleive the market will evolve , since there is already a great preasure from the community, we are going back to border less communitues just like the way things were before Were divided with cuntries ,my prediction is that we will see $50k before the end of 2018, since btc has won the reserve status .
I like your optimistic view! I'll take a more low-keyed path.. though the signs looking very good. Thank you for the correction.. yes a 0 too much.
It's really helpful news about crypto.
Thank you for kind words!
what a pipe!
it's about streaming money through the world 😁
You really are very lucky because as soon you posted this article bitcoin has shown a good rally good this continues...... Thanks @onetin84 bro for sharing this article keep steeming hope that cryptomarket booms!!
Surprisingly yes.. i'd looked right after reading your comment, BTC jumped +5% in just 3 hours! Thank you!
Pleasure is all mine bro I also had the same feel that look wtf my brother onetin is so lucky..... Haha this was my reaction 😂😂😂😂
😎👍
well i on the different side think that this pull back was most needed other wise it could burst more heavily that this well in the nature of crypto if it goes up that high it has to come down too this correction i was expecting it from almost eight months and keep asking every single one as far as i remember do you thing there will be a correction many denied but it eventually happened and for long run this is a positive to me
i was also quite happy because now is more upside than downside potential. But i see also things which are concerning.. if the bodybuilder next door (nothing against.. two decades ago i was also pumping iron 😎) suddenly comes into crypto on Youtube because he heard of a friend which made much money and now he ask how he can do that.. and without critical reflection of all the candy on coinmarketcap.com he says.. Ripple looks NICE! Huge GAINS! To da moon.. that's the lambo thing which will end in a crash eventually.. because greed eats brain.
People buy trojan horses, shitcoins, Useless Ethereum Token.. almost everything and win in such times on paper.. in 2017 you couldn't loose. I read a few articles about the early time in Bitcoin and it was completely different.. people used Bitcoin as alternative for money, they were libertarians, programmers with ideals. Each crash is also a erosion of weak hands, gamblers, ICO-scammers which is good. In the end the really valuable projects will survive and the challenge is to pick them early. The whole crypto ocean is rising day by day.. i can't hardly wait to pay my bills, my coffee, my tax, my rent.. with Bitcoin!
Steemit is a example for a real useful application and there are just a few currently, Microsoft Azure, Cryptokitties, Ethereum ICO's.. my hope is that we'll see much more real world applications in 2018 with public betas from the past ICO's.. because people staring at their roadmaps and price is not value.
Thank you!
i think crypto will rise again high in one third of this year
i think too, even it's a very short time frame it is also about yearly cycles.. the time for spending is over, new business year has begun and the upward pressure is increasing with the mentioned reasons. Thank you.
thank you a lot. i think that also and for that i invest some money in ripple last night.
i'm concerned about Ripple, because they build another centralized structure together with banks which could end up in total control of money for us all.. if too many people support that, look at the new Mark Zuckerberg at the top... He created that money for himself.. there is no community who profits from the selfish concentration of money. With Steemit we'd choosen another model to avoid such extreme concentration of power and control.. even it exists too to a certain degree.
very useful information for me. now i have to think again about ropple. thank you a lot
Good in depth explanation. I think it was just a little correction and with the big markets in Asia tightening things up people became a little worried. Great time to buy more coins. What I really like is how well steem and SBD held up in this downtrend. The future is bright
Yeah, Steemit is one of a kind in the correction.. i mentioned that in post recently
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While I'm quite optimistic about the future of crypto, ultimately there is no way to tell which boosts and disruptions lie ahead. Dramatic spikes seem to correct as a rule. Bubbles burst catastrophically.
stock and bond market is concerning.. there are many signs of a really big crash coming in next 2 years maybe. That's the real meltdown in my point of view which will also effect the crypto market.. that could lead to a crypto winter or people could see it also as safe haven, i'm not sure but i think it could drain money for innovation like blockchain projects in many companies. Many well known investors liquidating their assets currently to a much higher degree and prepare to buy in after the crash. Antonopoulos sees 2-3 bubbles for crypto until is fully adopted, we a few rounds more in the rollercoaster 😉
As I'm learning more about economics and markets, I have come to realise too that there is something worse than 2008 around the corner. It's like they never learn. And the quality of global political leadership has never been weaker. Either way, I have little to lose. Just don't need inflation to go up in my country. It's lower than a year ago, but still almost 5% and it really affects the food on our tables and fuel in our vehicles.
This has always been a cheap place to live, with low remuneration to match, but the rise in costs of basic goods over the past 18 months has forced some serious lifestyle changes. Salaries are stagnant because it's where employers cut costs first in order to ensure no drop in living standard for themselves.